On 02/02/2011, at 1:11 PM, Owen DeLong wrote: > > On Feb 1, 2011, at 3:54 PM, Lee Howard wrote: > >>> "People won't be able to access our site" >>> sure helps but being unable to put a date on it still reduces incentive >>> (especially when Management get involved, and especially if there is a >>> financial outlay involving firewalls etc.). >> >> Geoff generously provided a probabilistic sense for RIR runout: >> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg >> Pick your RIR and plot its runout date. If it's ARIN, then the first >> ISP is out of IPv4 addresses at most three months later (since ARIN >> now allocates for three months' need). Of course, if demand increases, >> these dates might change. >> >> Will users be unable to reach your content on $RIR_runout_date + 3? >> They might have to get there through large-scale NAT. That might >> bother management if you rely on IP geo-location, or need to >> initiate connections downstream, or rate limit per IP address, or >> have anti-DOS techniques measuring hits per source IP address, >> or have employees VPN in, or need to report intrusions, or any of >> the many problems widely documented. >> >> Oh, and when I said to pick your RIR, I meant the RIR of users >> who access your content. >> >> Lee >> > > I think there is a key problem with Geoff's graph. > > I think it fails to take into account the transitive probability of requests > among the largest 3 regions. I agree that APNIC will probably run > just about exactly as he predicts. I think, however, that the runout > at APNIC will create a higher demand in ARIN and RIPE. Once that > happens, their runout dates will get moved up much closer to > the runout date of APNIC. As soon as the second of the three > runs out, the remaining one will get another burst of acceleration. > > It does not appear to me that this probability is accounted for in the > plots. > > Owen > > (Including Geoff because it's not fair to criticize his work behind his back)
Yes - a certain (X) percent of demand will shift out from a region once that region's stocks are depleted. What value X realistically takes is not something I can factor into these models, nor can I predict where this unmet demand may surface in the remaining regions. The future of IPv4 contains many uncertainties. Geoff
