Ha! Should’ve said my analysis was also conducted in the early hours when I couldn’t sleep! Come on Leeds!
Sent from my iPhone > On 28 Dec 2018, at 22:53, Robert Heath <[email protected]> wrote: > > How funny! > > I was just about to post to the list the results of my own analysis, > conducted last night at 4 am when I couldn't sleep. > > I looked up the # of points achieved by the 2nd place team in the last 10 > seasons. The highest was 93 (twice) and the lowest an incredibly jammy 79 by > Hull. The average is 88, but if you take out Hull's ridiculous outlier, it > becomes 89. Since we are Leeds, we all know we will need to do better than > that, so yeah I agree that 90 wood seem to be a realistic target. > > Here's an interesting stat though. If you look at the # of pts by the team > finishing 3rd each season, the promotion cutoff total is often reduced. Eg > last year Cardiff went up with 90, but the 3rd place team got 88, so 89 would > still have been OK for Cardiff. On that basis, the pts needed in each of the > last 10 seasons, working back, have been..........89 - 86 - 89 - 87 - 86 - 78 > - 87 - 81 - 80 - 81.........and the average is 84.4. > > I reckon if we can win 12 of our last 22 games we'll be up. > > And don't forget, of the 5 other teams in the top 6, we have already played 4 > of them away (3 wins, 1 defeat.) > >> On Fri, Dec 28, 2018 at 9:23 PM Altruistic1964 via Leedslist >> <[email protected]> wrote: >> Also been number crunching. Since the Championship came into being, on >> average the Champions have attained 93 points, second 87 points and a play >> off place 74 points. So all looking very good. I too am trying to find >> solace in statistics.... >> >> Sent from my Xperia by Sony smartphone >> >> ---- Simon McNally wrote ---- >> >> >Evening >> >Been trying to convince myself that this is going to be our year and have >> >been trying to come up with some numbers to support it! >> >Points required : I think 90 points is a reasonable amount to be sure of >> >promotion ( although I can hear the announcers on sky saying “Leeds finish >> >third with a record haul for third place”). >> > >> >First half of the season : 48 points. >> > >> >This leaves 42 required for promotion - i reckon 11 wins and 9 draws. >> >A win against Blackburn reduces it to 10 wins 9 draws. >> > >> >Comparison to first half : I think another way of looking at it is to >> >compare results in second half to first half. All the same results we >> >finish on 96 points, 6 more then required. A win against Blackburn puts us >> >+3 compared to first half for a total of 99, 9 more than required. Hull >> >tomorrow is important (as they all are) , a win keeps us on pace for 99 >> >whereas a draw puts us on for 97. Forest on New Year’s Day is interesting- >> >we drew at ER so a draw would put us on pace for 99 still whereas a win >> >puts us up by 2. >> >Also makes WBA home perhaps less key - anything better than loss represents >> >progress! >> >I think the first half of the season contained harder fixtures- Millwall >> >away plus WBA, Norwich, Blades, Derby away. >> >I’m already at the stage where I’m terrified just watching but trying to >> >use numbers to calm my nerves! >> >To my mind the major factor is Bielsa. We have the best manager in the >> >division and if anyone can lead us through to glory it’s him! >> > >> >On and on! >> > >> >S >> > >> >PS Blackburn game reminded me so much of Hull game in 1990. Is that an omen? >> > >> > >> >Sent from my iPhone >> >_______________________________________________ >> >Leedslist mailing list >> >Info and options: https://mailman.gn.apc.org/mailman/listinfo/leedslist >> >To unsubscribe, email [email protected] >> > >> >Find us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/groups/leedslist/ >> > >> >RIP Jimmy WAC-COE >> _______________________________________________ >> Leedslist mailing list >> Info and options: https://mailman.gn.apc.org/mailman/listinfo/leedslist >> To unsubscribe, email [email protected] >> >> Find us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/groups/leedslist/ >> >> RIP Jimmy WAC-COE _______________________________________________ Leedslist mailing list Info and options: https://mailman.gn.apc.org/mailman/listinfo/leedslist To unsubscribe, email [email protected] Find us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/groups/leedslist/ RIP Jimmy WAC-COE
