At 11:50 PM 4/22/2000 -0400, vinton g. cerf wrote:
>big smile - vBNS+ is running IPv6 on a commercial basis. I'd be more than 
>interested in
>your opinion of a sensible (acceptable) policy on the minimum size of IPv6 
>space one might expect
>to allocate to customers.
>
>Vint



Well that is a very interesting thought exercise depending on the market 
that is being addressed and what is the market growth in networked devices 
in the future.

If we were looking at a typicial household and you wanted to plan for the 
future I would have to assume 1 address for every single thing plugged in 
to any thing, phone, electrical appliances, water, maybe even sewage. Yes 
an IP address on your toilet. Now before we all giggle ourselves silly at 
that thought it might be reasonable to assume that at some point in the 
future sewage/water companies would want to monitor use in order to charge 
appropriately. Its been a desire of utility companies for some time to 
remotely retrieve usage data from households for the purposes of billing.

With "always on" IP and IP on anything this is closer to reality than we 
might think. In order to permit a reasonable allocation of addresses with 
room for growth the idea of 25 IP address per household and 10 person 
actually seems conservative.

Businesses are different but some of the needs are the same.  The typical 
business customer has multiple devices at their command, many of which are 
currently IP addressable or certainly should be, phone, cell phone, 
printer, copier, fax, scanners, PDA's, cameras. 15 addressees per employee?

Ive never seen any studies on what is current enterprise consumption of IP 
addresses is per employee or what differences there might be between 
consumption in the automobile industry vs the aircraft industry vs a 
consumer products company vs a typicial teleco.

Whatever it is now it would be reasonable to assume that address 
consumption per employee within 10 years will be 4x what it is now.



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