Steve, I really like your reply. There’s a lot I could comment on and maybe add a different perspective—not as a competing argument, but just another view. But for now, I’ll focus on this part:
*It seems possible, for example, that Tesla's dominance in the EV market is past...* I wouldn’t be so sure. In China, yes, Tesla will likely remain a strong #2, but the Chinese government won’t let them overtake BYD. And BYD is good too. However, in the rest of the world—like the US, Europe, and Japan—Tesla is simply too far ahead. They continue to innovate at a pace that makes it very hard for others to catch up. I’ve followed this space for a while, and while I can’t recall every detail offhand, I’ll stick to two key reasons for my view: Giga Press technology Tesla has a huge cost advantage in manufacturing because of its use of Giga Press machines. To benefit from this, a company needs high production volume. Tesla has designed its models in a way that allows them to maximize this technology. Other carmakers can’t easily adopt it because they lack the volume and experience. When Tesla started, they had time to experiment. Now, they’ve refined the process and have much lower production costs. VW, GM, Ford, and others are in trouble—there’s simply no realistic way for them to catch up. Manufacturing efficiency Most car companies are still building EVs using the same manufacturing principles established in Henry Ford's time. Over the past maybe 100 years or so, they’ve nearly perfected this approach. As long as there’s demand for gas-powered cars, they can not only survive but make good profits. But the writing is on the wall—whether people like it or not, EVs are coming. Tesla has completely reimagined how cars are built, and their entire manufacturing process is significantly more cost-effective. Traditional carmakers can’t just swap out gas engines for batteries and expect to compete. Looking ahead, they are in serious trouble. On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 at 20:25, steve smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: > Pieter - > > In response to both your litany of innovations we might attribute directly > to Musk and to this question: > > I think Musk has managed to set precedents and break new ground in many > areas. > > It seems possible, for example, that Tesla's dominance in the EV market > is past... whether it is his political problems (mishandling the Commons > with Twitter/X so egregioiusly or going full-MAGA ++) that will lead to > that or if in fact, the precedent he set with (ubiquitous) EVs really has > catalyzed the entire market and industry (in spite of his buddy Trump > trying to attenuate that in favor of coal-rolling quad-cab 3 ton diesel > pickups in every suburban driveway) in a way which is now taking off on > it's own. > > Trump's attempt to make fossil fuels and ICEmobiles "great again" may > actually be the challenge both EVs and renewable sources need to become > viable. A bit like the 16 year old kid whose father threatens to call the > police on him for his pot-stash who then breaks away and finds his own way > in the world (my hackneyed image of George and Freeman Dyson as gestured at > in the chronical of his early years in "The Starship and the Canoe > <https://www.harvard.com/book/9781680512786>"). > > Whether Musk actually "invented" or "innovated" any/all of those things, > he definite participated in making them mainstream. Henry Ford, for > example, didn't really innovate precision manufacturing so much as use > Whitney and Taylor's pioneering work at-scale. While he double wages for > workers in his assembly lines, he also was virulently against unionization > (sounds a bit like Musk?) and then went on to be radically anti Semitic. > > > *<provided by GPT> In 1919, Ford bought The Dearborn Independent, a small > newspaper, and turned it into a platform for anti-Semitic propaganda. In > 1920, the paper began publishing a series of articles called The > International Jew: The World’s Foremost Problem, which promoted the > fraudulent Protocols of the Elders of Zion, a widely debunked anti-Semitic > text. <GPT quote> * > > And not for nothing, he was awarded the *Grand Cross of the Golden Eagle* > by the Nazi Party in the 30s. > > Is Twitter/X an echo of the Dearborn Independent? > > His "innovations" in Orbital Launch may be hinged entirely on the huge > disparity of tolerance on "failures" SpaceX has been allowed opposite NASA > proper and it's major contractors (e.g. Boeing). This doesn't take away > from the progress he/SpaceX have therefore made, just frames it a little > differently? The Russian's higher tolerance for (public?) risk may be the > main/only reason Sputnik preceded Vanguard by a year or so? That doesn't > mean they were "better" or worse" than we were at innovation in that > era/domain? > > Re Robotaxis and Self Driving: Elno has been claiming FSD "just around > the corner" for over a decade with no more than incremental idiosyncratic > delivery of features. Yet he has popularized the idea and created a > belief in the possibility and an appetite for it which is critical to it's > realization/manifestation. Even if Waymo (or Apple iCar or GoogleDrive or > BYD or Huawei ???) scoops him, we should give him credit for > popularizing/normalizing it. The decade+ of instrumenting all of his > vehicles to provide a huge and diverse training set is extremely valuable > by many measures. On the other hand, he may have missed his moment and the > first truly effective FSD may well be based on something less > massive-data/brute-force just as DeepSeek may be demonstrating opposite the > existing LLM behemoths? > > As a rapidly aging 'old man' (*get off all my lawns!*) I don't like all > these advances even though it will probably mean I can keep on being > independent well into my "Alzheimer Years" (tacky maybe but I did walk a > Father-in-Law and a Father all the way to their graves down that alley in > the last 15 years). This without being an acute danger to others (both old > men referenced parenthetically had wives who were able to manipulate them > out of driving early enough and stayed healthy/alert enough themselves to > be their "self-driving/navigating car robot drivers")... Predictive > scheduling/navigation might even prevent me from instructing my > self-driving car to take me places I shouldn't be going otherwise. My > father started letting himself into neighbors' houses in the middle of the > night. I might start showing up in a neighboring state or on the opposite > coast with no particular understanding of quite where I was or what i was > doing. Zombie snowbirds a new thing for the 2030s? Instead of a > med-Alert bracelet with my home phone, my FSD car will simply "return to > home" the way a DJI drone does if it detects it's going to run out of juice > before it can or maybe if it has attempted to cross into restricted > airspace (no longer apparently)? My loved ones (if my geriatric habits > don't leave me without any) can put soft temporal-geo-fences in my FSD > configuration without me even knowing? > > Trump Negotiator: > > A few months ago you (Pieter) confronted the list with the idea that > "maybe Trump is a really good negotiator?"... and I have to concede that he > has some bold tricks (like Musk does in taking over and running tech > companies?) which can be highly effective. At best he's negotiating *for* > only 49.9999% of the voting citizenry of the US against the remainder > (49.99998% Dems and allies and .000002 "undecideds"). At worst, he's > negotiating for himself, maybe Barron, a little Ivanka, a little less > Melania, even less the other Trump kids (claimed and unclaimed), and only > transactionally the tech Billionaires and Fossil Fuel and other extremely > powerful wankers. His loyalty to Politicians (including his corrupt > Supreme Court Justices) is entirely transactional.. while they may benefit > from his "negotiating skill", he is definitely NOT negotiating FOR them > (see Hegseth, Gaetz, Patel, etc). > > So whether he is an effective *negotiator* or not, it is worth asking > "who is he negotiating on behalf of? To what end?" > > Musk will be as well remembered as Ford or Lindbergh (another rabid > Nazi-ally) are while Trump may or may not rival Hitler/Stalin or maybe some > lesser flash-in-pan dictator wannabe? > > Being "effective" is entirely orthogonal to being "good". > > - Steve > On 2/12/25 4:32 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: > > *For robotaxis, I’d bet on Waymo not Tesla. Waymo is very conspicuous and > popular in San Francisco. * > > If you want me to place a bet, I need the fine print—short, medium, or > long term? US, China, or global rollout? And, of course, the risk-reward > profile—are we playing it safe or swinging for the fences? > > Now, I think some of you might suspect that my knee-jerk reaction might be > to bet on Tesla, but if we're for example talking short-term in the US with > a conservative risk-reward ratio, I'll also hedge my bet with Waymo too. > After all, Waymo is practically a local celebrity in San Francisco, while > Tesla’s robotaxi dreams are still stuck in traffic. > > Also, if the fine print specifies China, BYD would be a good bet. > > On Tue, 11 Feb 2025 at 19:40, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: > >> I find the OpenAI purchase attempt strange. He must really have an >> inferiority complex, since xAI has the hardware now to compete.[1] Or >> maybe they have the money and brawn but not the brains? >> >> For robotaxis, I’d bet on Waymo not Tesla. Waymo is very conspicuous and >> popular in San Francisco. >> >> >> [1] >> https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/xai-raises-another-6bn-including-from-nvidia-and-amd/ >> >> >> >> *From: *Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Jon Zingale < >> jonzing...@gmail.com> >> *Date: *Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 9:13 AM >> *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >> friam@redfish.com> >> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] OpenAI and the fight between Elon and Sam >> >> "Apparently, Tesla only managed to show profitability last quarter due >> to unrealized earnings on Bitcoin. Stock is way overvalued." >> >> >> >> Technically, I would put a short-term (let's say 3 year) fair value >> around $210 or so, but would likely wait to pay $150-$160. 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