*For robotaxis, I’d bet on Waymo not Tesla.  Waymo is very conspicuous and
popular in San Francisco. *

If you want me to place a bet, I need the fine print—short, medium, or long
term? US, China, or global rollout? And, of course, the risk-reward
profile—are we playing it safe or swinging for the fences?

Now, I think some of you might suspect that my knee-jerk reaction might be
to bet on Tesla, but if we're for example talking short-term in the US with
a conservative risk-reward ratio, I'll also hedge my bet with Waymo too.
After all, Waymo is practically a local celebrity in San Francisco, while
Tesla’s robotaxi dreams are still stuck in traffic.

Also, if the fine print specifies China, BYD would be a good bet.

On Tue, 11 Feb 2025 at 19:40, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> I find the OpenAI purchase attempt strange.  He must really have an
> inferiority complex, since xAI has the hardware now to compete.[1]   Or
> maybe they have the money and brawn but not the brains?
>
> For robotaxis, I’d bet on Waymo not Tesla.  Waymo is very conspicuous and
> popular in San Francisco.
>
>
> [1]
> https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/xai-raises-another-6bn-including-from-nvidia-and-amd/
>
>
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Jon Zingale <
> jonzing...@gmail.com>
> *Date: *Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 9:13 AM
> *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] OpenAI and the fight between Elon and Sam
>
> "Apparently, Tesla only managed to show profitability last quarter due to
> unrealized earnings on Bitcoin. Stock is way overvalued."
>
>
>
> Technically, I would put a short-term (let's say 3 year) fair value around
> $210 or so, but would likely wait to pay $150-$160. Fundamentally, I would
> like to see the market cap closer to $300 B.
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