Here's one I happen to have in my browser from Claude Sonnet 3.5 in Concise mode.
I asked: Are there any examples of complex [lithium battery] wearing? How
does one validate models that have no precedent?
Let me think through this carefully:
Complex Wearing Examples:
Battery Systems
Multiple interacting degradation mechanisms:
Calendar aging
Cycle depth impacts
Temperature history effects
Current rate dependencies
State of charge stress
The challenge is these factors don't combine linearly and create memory
effects
Solar Panel Degradation
Compounding effects of:
Thermal cycling fatigue on connections
UV degradation of materials
Delamination progression
Micro-crack propagation
Chemical changes in encapsulants
Many of these processes accelerate each other
Inverter Wear
Component aging affected by:
Thermal cycling frequency
Power cycling stress
Environmental contamination
Partial failures changing load distribution
Wear patterns can shift dramatically after partial failures
Model Validation Approaches:
Physics-Based Validation
Break down into known mechanisms
Validate subsystems where possible
Use accelerated testing for components
Compare with similar systems in different contexts
Bounded Validation
Test model behavior at physical limits
Verify conservation laws are respected
Check for impossible state transitions
Validate error bounds rather than point predictions
Cross-Validation Strategies
Use data from similar systems
Validate on different timescales
Test model consistency across subsystems
Compare with simpler models on subset of problems
The fundamental challenge is that long-term wearing might take years to
validate directly. Would you like me to explore specific validation strategies
for any of these scenarios in more detail?
-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of glen
Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2025 11:04 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] May you live in interesting times
Efficient? No, I don't think so, barring some perverse conception of
efficiency. The chat versions are way too verbose and don't write dense text.
In thinking of who, here, would be difficult to simulate, I think Eric's text
is too densely filled with hooks to various domains. And I don't think that's
merely a style thing. It's representative of something like a "mind palace" or
a graph where most nodes have high degree. SteveS' posts are similar in their
bushiness, if not as dense.
Frank's posts are arguably the most efficient. He frequently posts with minimal
content. Like if you ask "What's the successor of 0?" He might post a mere "1".
He may not be answering the question you asked. But it's better than the
man-splaining GPT that answers the question you didn't ask *and* gaslights you
into thinking it answered the right question. Then when you tell it that it
answered the wrong question, it goes all obsequious for a paragraph and
proceeds to answer the wrong question again. They're like Genies ... or maybe
Lucifer negotiating a bargain for your soul. You gotta lawyer up your prompt
just to get a straight answer.
On 1/23/25 8:08 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> The style of ChatGPT or Claude or others are just default engineered styles
> that provide efficient responses. Noticing it is identifiable is like
> noticing that a document was written using stock LaTeX.
>
> Incidentally, I’ve noticed Claude is prone to going down rabbit holes when
> debugging code. It’s not a terrible approach to software development, or
> for that matter housecleaning. If something, anything, is out of order, put
> it in order. While the context of the whole conversation is there and it is
> easy to get back on track, I find I must nudge it to pop the stack with
> questions like “Do you think fixing this bug could be relevant to the larger
> goal?” So long as conversation lengths are constrained, it would make
> customers happier if they tried harder to infer the user’s goal and go off on
> tangents.
>
> Marcus
>
> *From:*Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Barry MacKichan
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 23, 2025 7:50 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] May you live in interesting times
>
> So we need an LLM to determine if the Turing test has been passed? I detect
> recursion, or as it is commonly called, a rabbit hole.
>
> * Barry
>
> On 22 Jan 2025, at 20:27, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I was addressing the mistaken claim that using a LLM create content is
> easy to detect. It would require some thoughtful setup work and testing, but
> that could be more fun and educational than writing the content directly.
>
> *From:*Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> on behalf of glen <geprope...@gmail.com
> <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>>
> *Date:* Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 5:06 PM
> *To:* friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com> <friam@redfish.com
> <mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] May you live in interesting times
>
> I bet it can't simulate Marcus. Because most of Marcus' posts are one
> liners, often with some ironic twist that I'm sure is there, but evades me. I
> guess if you have enough one liners to provide examples, then restrict the
> response to only a few tokens, that might work. But you'd prolly also have to
> get it to iterate a couple of times... Generate a wordy 0th response, feed
> that back in to generate a less wordy 1st response, etc. ... maybe for 3-5
> iterates. Then post the last one of only 5 words ... and maybe followed by a
> random picture from the internet or a link to an Atlantic article. >8^D
>
> I think Gillian would also be difficult to simulate. It would be pretty
> cool to classify everyone according to how well they could be simulated. Of
> course, there's a disconnect between the validator and the referent. Just
> because everyone other than P agrees that person (P) is well-simulated
> doesn't mean the simulator fully expresses any deeper or interpolated meaning
> P steganographically hid in the carrier message. What's that line by the
> Butthole Surfers? "Ya never know just how you look through other people's
> eyes."
>
>
> On 1/22/25 12:59 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> > Easy to avoid this problem.
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> > Sent: Wednesday, January 22, 2025 1:04 PM
> > To: friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com>
> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] May you live in interesting times
> >
> > two things:
> >
> > 1) isn't it interesting that human beings, with only a short exposure
> to LLM generated text can instantly spot 'suspicious' and
> 'likely-LLM-sourced' writing. Not just glen, but all of my university
> professor friends can spot and know with certainty that LLM generated test
> answers or papers are exactly that. The only problem they have is the
> bureaucratic procedures required to hold a student accountable and the fact
> that Deans, determined to retain students, almost always give student's the
> benefit of the doubt. It seems to me that ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, et. al. are
> failing the Turing test in a most obvious manner.
> >
> > 2) Free Speech. Why is all the focus on the speaker? Exactly what
> difference does it make what the preacher says, even if using a megaphone, if
> no one is on the corner listening? True, if I am an office worker at my desk,
> with no option to work from home, and the megaphone results in my being, more
> or less, compelled to listen; there is an issue. Solution is to take away the
> megaphone, nothing more. My right to speak is protected; there is not right
> to compel others to listen to me.
> >
> > in the case of X, I would argue that there is no compulsion to listen,
> so no issues of free speech. I am less certain about Facebook or Tik Tok,
> mostly because they have become such "attractive nuisances" that there is
> some degree of compulsion. But the solution is not control of the speech per
> se, it is holding the platforms to the same legal liability as a person who
> puts in a pool and someone drowns. The homeowner is liable for building the
> attractive nuisance; even if the homeowner put up a fence and even if the
> person trespassed.
> >
> > davew
> >
> > On Wed, Jan 22, 2025, at 2:26 PM, glen wrote:
> >
> > > I hope I'm wrong. But that text reads like it was generated by an
> LLM.
> >
> > > My point was that artifacts like Section 230 are NOT about free
> speech
> >
> > > in any way, fashion, or form. Free speech is an individual right that
> >
> > > is meaningless in the context of platform moderation. Using "section
> >
> > > 230" and "free speech" in the same context is non sequitur.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Another analogy is to the public square (not the "town square"). You
> >
> > > can be trespassed from public spaces, even though they're public.
> >
> > > While this typically happens from "disorderly behavior", it could
> also
> >
> > > happen from "free speech". Elno Musk's vision for X is simply to
> >
> > > manipulate the zeitgeist to his benefit, no more, no less. Any
> >
> > > pretense he's doing this for some *public* good is so obviously
> false,
> >
> > > I can't believe you (or even Grok) might believe it.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Of course, the libertarian principle is that if there exists a Good,
> >
> > > the best path to it is through the diversity of visions and pursuits
> >
> > > ... collective "action" through individuality. Bizarre paths of
> >
> > > failure do tiny bits of damage and fall away while pursuits and
> >
> > > visions with merit succeed or gain a (cult) following. But even here,
> >
> > > Elno doesn't fit. He's got too much money, "controls" too much stuff.
> >
> > > He's no longer an individual. He's an institution. And, in the same
> >
> > > way that corporations shouldn't have free speech, Elno should have NO
> >
> > > individual rights because he's not an individual.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > On 1/22/25 12:04 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> >
> > >> There are multiple dimensions to the issue of free speech,
> especially when it comes to the transition from individual expression to
> distribution by platforms like X:
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> Responsibility for Content Distribution:
> >
> > >> You raise a valid question regarding who is responsible when a
> platform distributes content: the individual who created the content or the
> platform that disseminates it? The answer isn't straightforward due to legal
> and ethical complexities. If the speech in question violates laws, such as
> defamation, the responsibility might legally fall on the individual speaker.
> However, platforms can also be held accountable, especially under laws like
> Section 230 in the U.S., which currently grants them immunity from being
> treated as the publisher or speaker of user-generated content under certain
> conditions. This legal shield is often debated, particularly in contexts
> where platforms are seen to amplify or moderate content in ways that
> influence public discourse.
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> The Megaphone Analogy:
> >
> > >> Your analogy of a street preacher with a megaphone is insightful.
> It highlights that while the content (the message about God) originates from
> the individual, the distribution (the megaphone) can amplify its reach and
> impact. Here, one might argue that the responsibility for any harm caused
> could be shared between the content creator and the tool's provider or user,
> depending on how the distribution is managed. This analogy underscores that
> free speech isn't just about what is said but also how it's broadcasted.
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> Comparing Distribution of Rights:
> >
> > >> Your comparison to the ownership and use of handguns versus drones
> with missiles further illustrates the point about distribution. Just as there
> are restrictions on certain weapons due to their potential for harm, the
> distribution of speech through powerful platforms might necessitate similar
> considerations. The key difference here lies in the scale and potential
> impact of distribution. While a handgun's harm is immediate and localized, a
> drone's capability could affect a broader area or population, akin to how
> widespread distribution via social media can influence societal norms or
> politics.
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> The Role of External Pressures:
> >
> > >> Another layer to consider is the influence of external forces, like
> government or "deep state" actors, on media companies. The example of the
> Hunter Biden laptop story suggests a scenario where free speech could be
> curtailed not by the platforms themselves but by external coercion. Elon
> Musk's vision for X seems to promise resistance to such pressures, aiming to
> uphold free speech by not succumbing to external dictates on what content
> should or shouldn't be shared.
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> In essence, while the core principle of free speech focuses on the
> individual's right to express themselves, the reality of modern communication
> involves platforms that significantly alter the reach and impact of that
> speech. The promotion of free speech from individual to distributor involves
> navigating these new dimensions of responsibility, ethics, and law. The
> question isn't just whether free speech should be promoted but how it should
> be managed in an age where distribution can exponentially increase its
> effects, both positive and negative.
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> On Wed, 22 Jan 2025 at 20:35, glen <geprope...@gmail.com
> <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com
> <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com%20%3cmailto:geprope...@gmail.com
> <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com%20%3cmailto:geprope...@gmail.com>>>> wrote:
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> I'm confused by this promotion of "free speech" from the
> individual to a platform. When X (or this mailing list) *distributes* my
> text, who is ultimately responsible for that distribution? Me? Or
> X/redfish.com <http://redfish.com <http://redfish.com <http://redfish.com>>>?
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> The distribution of some content is not what I'd call "free
> speech". Maybe we could make an analogy to a megaphone. Let's say some street
> preacher is shouting about God (content) through a megaphone (distribution).
> And let's say your hearing is damaged by that megaphone (distribution).
> Efficient cause suggests it's the preacher's fault - or maybe your fault for
> standing so close. Material/proximal cause suggests it's the megaphone's
> fault (or the manufacturer of the megaphone). But regardless of where any one
> person lands in answering that question, everyone should admit that the
> content is not the same as the distribution.
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> A similar argument can be made about the difference between,
> say, a handgun and a drone carrying a hellfire missile. Should my neighbor
> Randy be allowed to own (and/or carry into the sandwich shop) a handgun?
> Sure, it's right there in the Bill of Rights. But should Randy be flying
> hellfire-laden drones around in Seattle airspace? No, probably not. What's
> different about those questions? My answer is *distribution*, distribution of
> the threat (flying around) and distribution of the damage (missile vs. lead
> slug).
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> Why is the promotion of free speech from individual to
> distribut[or|ion] any different from that of other rights?
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >>
> >
> > >> On 1/21/25 10:27 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> >
> > >> >
> >
> > >> > Regarding free speech, I acknowledge its drawbacks, but what
> are the alternatives? During the Biden administration, there were allegations
> of pressure on media to promote a certain narrative, notably around the
> Hunter Biden laptop story where 51 former intelligence officials wrongly
> suggested it might be Russian disinformation to influence the 2020 election
> outcome. This incident illustrates the dangers of having moderators decide
> what is true if those moderators are not guaranteed to be objective and
> neutral.
> >
> > >> >
> >
> > >> > The debate on free speech versus moderated content is
> complex. While there are clear pros and cons, I believe that Elon Musk's
> approach to free speech on the X platform (formerly Twitter) is preferable to
> a system where moderation is evidently biased, as it was before Musk's
> acquisition of the platform. However, the effectiveness of his free speech
> policies is still a topic of debate among users, with some arguing that the
> platform's moderation has become less about curating content for truthfulness
> and more about enabling a broader, sometimes unchecked, range of opinions.
> >
> --
--
¡sıɹƎ ןıɐH ⊥ ɐןןǝdoɹ ǝ uǝןƃ
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