I don’t think that’s right. I don’t think trump is dead set on anything, except self-aggrandizement and acting out his resentments. He really is that small. There may be people behind him who have “policy commitments” or something like that, which have some definiteness; Michael Bolton was of that kind it seems. But the figurehead himself, no. This to me is the thing that comes up over and over again about a structure. Most of them are just bad people, but within understandable ranges. Bullies, opportunists, some sadists, deep deep cynics. But they aren’t sociopaths per se. There is a special role for the sociopath in such organizations, and it is somewhat different from roles of the others, even if there are some overlapping characteristics.
I was thinking of something different. The U.S. air force and navy are the two largest air forces in the world, and the only two that could, with conventional weapons, sink the entire Russian Baltic fleet in a day. They would take losses doing it, but I don’t think anything in the Russian arsenal would be sufficient to prevent it. I have imagined — and who the hell am I; I don’t really know anything — that those kinds of deterrents have been the thing to keep Russia from threatening, and really intending to use, battlefield nuclear weapons in areas where they start running low on people. Whoever does that first crosses a line to making nuclear deployment thinkable and just a matter of pricing, which hasn’t been crossed after the recoil from their use following WWII. trump would announce immediatly that he won’t do anything directly against Russia, under any scenario for what they do. That would look like a stance of american isolationism that is quite standard, and repeated in many eras, so wouldn’t eve make him look that special from a long view. Then there is no deterrance at all. They can roll battlefield nuclear warheads up to striking distance and say “surrender now; our terms”. Maybe they do or maybe they don’t ever use them; once the threat is unimpeded, what options does Ukraine have? There’s not really anything Ukraine has to offer trump at this point, so I don’t see why he would do anything to protect any sovereignty in them at all. That kind of play-out sounds entirely within what is administratively possible. The thing that, up until now, has kept it from happening, is that there are some things people value, and some things people are afraid of. trump doesn’t really value anything, and there is nothing for him to be afraid of at this point. Through the remainder of his life, nothing will ever happen to him again. It isn’t to Pieter’s thread, but it has been in my mind and we haven’t discussed it. When do the J6 rioters get pardoned? My guess has been, not right away. One could talk of it as a “thank you” from trump to the people who put him in office. But trump doesn’t say thank you. He does things when he can get something from them. The reason I don’t see the timing on it now is that, in the past, he has used mobilization of political violence when there was something he wanted and wasn’t being given. At the moment, he has been given everything, so I don’t know what else he might want and feel he is being denied. The kinds of things I can envision are the first time some blue-state governer actually refuses to submit to him on something. Then there’s a string of public messaging along the lines of: How big do you think their state national guards really are? They couldn’t manage “protests” at all the large cities at once, you know. And their buildings aren’t that hardened. Then release of a bolus of J6 protesters to make it explicit that national resources will not be called in to help, and there won’t be any federal prosecutions no matter what gets done. Something like that. Of course, as long as it hasn’t happened, anybody who talks about it as being possible can be scornfully dissed as being histerical or whatever. But that dismissal doesn’t have any logic that I can see. People have done all sorts of monstrous things in the past, and so there’s no prima facie argument that they can’t. The only argument at the moment is that certain ones of them haven’t done certain things at this place or time. I wouldn’t use that kind of argument to seal water in a jar. The question is: can they? And is there any strongly persuasive evidence that they wouldn’t? I don’t see either as a negative argument at the moment. We’ll find out, I guess, whether I am categorically wrong about everything, or whether the impression of the picture is somewhat right even if they come up with details that wouldn’t occur to somebody like me. Eric > On Nov 9, 2024, at 2:48 AM, Pieter Steenekamp <piet...@randcontrols.co.za> > wrote: > > Trump's the kind of guy you should take seriously, not literally. When he > says something big like, “I’ll end the war in Ukraine on day one,” he means > he's dead set on making peace happen there. Anyone with half a brain knows he > can’t actually snap his fingers and stop the war on his first day. That’s up > to Russia and Ukraine to figure out, after all. But does Trump have a unique > knack for pushing people toward a deal? Oh, you bet he does. > > In fact, William Spaniel, a professor over at the University of Pittsburgh, > mentioned in a podcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKH-QeRJBU8 that Putin > seems to believe Trump will lay down a deal that both sides can live with. > (And yeah, Spaniel seems to know his stuff.) > > So, here’s my hunch on what Trump might say to Ukraine and Russia, in my own > words: “Alright, fellas, here’s the deal. Ukraine, let’s be real—Russia needs > to keep a little slice of land to save face. It might sting, but if you don’t > settle, Russia’s going to drag this war out and make it miserable for > everyone. And Russia, let’s stop the drama now. You can keep a few bits, but > if you keep pushing, we’re going to load up Ukraine with so many weapons > it’ll make your head spin. Then, you’re gonna lose big time, and Ukraine will > take back everything. But hey, it’s up to you, sweethearts!” > > On Fri, 8 Nov 2024 at 07:04, steve smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: > > > Marcuswrote: >> Seems like a lot of people will try to leave Africa because of climate >> change. I suppose they’ll end up in Europe, creating yet more folks like >> Trump to rile people up about it. >> > Until the AMOC turns over and plunges Northern Europe into the kind of winter > cold Maine-Nova Scotia currently "enjoy"? > there was some B post-apocalypse movie starring a polar vortex which ended > with all of Canada/US lined up at the MX border asking to be let in to avoid > turning into popsicles... of course, the style of the movie had the sweet > long-suffering people in the land of Manana politely inviting all the Karen's > and Matt Gaetz's into their (now overwhelmed? country)... > > > > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... > --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... > --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,AeTRr6LTNRxTxAj4XkxJWjO28Do9J94KVZPcHEt_OYMPEQpuEfGgJGc0wlIUgD_-uMS15_d9CFwItlNqPHyFWGICUai1cQGrBSP30-52&typo=1 > to (un)subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,2LKenregFzJ9qZbZAlLUxw1Z8uXRPpOL8Yrsap-4onZlPWvuPvygDA6-Y_ED-N7J1_uhQhcaiIeGvIIeDsTAUCku2TLu1OROOMNNkv2OIDb6chG9jQQ2AZo,&typo=1 > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,KKulkH4NFclqZzVJ0q9sJpQNVZ6CSRZtN-_kgCDPg2-9V-zO5lr74t-zNWKxZvA1oq7BhTncrvEF4xrwr0RxwIjkc1Q8iNAMXK12cgrDDJhQKy5LaHwdBoQu3Q,,&typo=1 > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,lisd6Oy8VtFmaNrJvxs12l4tJ-QlhRQC-YkSX_8_ZvVg0NuRQdeWqj49aTdvklY_vVBjeYXECKJ_J26eYsottdTBXIjPyx5K6FirTavx9eg,&typo=1 > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. 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