Here's a stock that could be shorted, but golly it is doing well right now.
https://www.reit.com/investing/reit-directory/rexford-industrial-realty-inc So, one imagines that an 1862-scale flood comes to LA due to some enormous atmospheric river, and then it finally pays. Ideally there'd be some inverse real estate ETF that was regional, e,g. Abu Dhabi, where one expects it to get bad. Marcus ________________________________ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> Sent: Monday, January 3, 2022 4:14 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!?? This is an interesting direction. How small a minority does one have to be in, for it to count as an arbitrage opportunity? In the El Farol and Minority Game abstractions, any minority is enough. If we think about the dichotomy in public health, or in reason vs. hormonal aggression, the split in the US (at least by political commitments) is not so far from 50/50. But as far as “profiting from the committed wrong”, that market seems to be cornered already by a very tiny percent, who have priced in much of the available surplus. The difference between the dupes and the honest but powerless seems unimportant compared to the difference between both of those and the insiders with power, access, and control. Somehow these richly structured extensive-form games with coalitional solution concepts seem very far from the market model in which we often think about arbitrage. I am also reminded of the aphorism in that other realm “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Or in the case of climate, agricultural, and social instability, alive. I wonder what makes an adequate toolbox of concepts and analogies with which to think about this (at least somewhat) systematically. Eric On Jan 2, 2022, at 2:58 PM, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com<mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: Nick writes: < So, what does a healthy 2040 community look like. What are we working TOWARD, here. Once of the things that the Mcnamee podcast highlighted for me was my feeling that, in a chaotic world, people like me, planners, are just out of tune with the world. > I don't think it really matters how people interact in social media or what they think. What will matter is how people adapt to climate change and the exhaustion of food and energy, and the migrations resulting from climate change. That's where the opportunities will be. If there are millions of people that deny it is happening like they deny pandemics, then things simply must be arranged so that the natural accounting occurs. The planners will look past the chaos and make their investments.. and wait. Marcus ________________________________ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> on behalf of thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> <thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> Sent: Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:32 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam@redfish.com<mailto:friam@redfish.com>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!?? So, what does a healthy 2040 community look like. What are we working TOWARD, here. Once of the things that the Mcnamee podcast highlighted for me was my feeling that, in a chaotic world, people like me, planners, are just out of tune with the world. By the way, I think “surfing the web” , as it has been used, is a terrible metaphor. What most of us do is like water skiing the web. Bouncing over the wake, never actually getting into the water. Gives surfing a bad name. A surfer finds the few survivable paths through an immense concentration of hostile forces. Surfing is more like martial arts. In fact we must begin to surf the web. To realize the manners in which its hostile forces constrain us and find the few paths that allow us to master those forces and come out of the curl safely. We thought it was a playground; now we see it’s a minefield. n Nick Thompson thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,-Fd2M0MU4wX5y1N6mhhnNrFlsG64cdcJ8jOErlxB0hvFzR4dcEnKSSt2EqX5s2fb-wPOBqSH4X2Ap1mYP24zv3_muYGYijRLpnFKTxxN3dQyGtSp1B6x&typo=1> From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels Sent: Sunday, January 2, 2022 2:18 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com<mailto:friam@redfish.com>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!?? Nick writes: < Imagined a world in which we all worked at home, everything was on zoom, and everything was delivered by Amazon by drone. I realize this is a reductio, but hum along with me for a few bars. There would be no intermediate social landscape between the home and the distribution center. No intermediate human scales. I can’t say immediately why this would be a bad thing, but my gut doesn’t like it.> I can't think of many examples where the intermediate scales are anything but wasteful or intrusive. Maybe to see a tailor coupled to the purchase of certain clothes? I still drive to services (dentist, doctor, hair stylist), just not to redistributors, because they don't really add anything. There's still a farmer's market that seems as popular as ever -- but they DO offer something unique. I can drive five minutes to Home Depot but honestly half the time their inventory is exhausted for what I want, and I end up ordering it online. Marcus ________________________________ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> on behalf of thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> <thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> Sent: Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:03 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam@redfish.com<mailto:friam@redfish.com>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!?? Marcus, I would like to be convinced …. But Imagined a world in which we all worked at home, everything was on zoom, and everything was delivered by Amazon by drone. I realize this is a reductio, but hum along with me for a few bars. There would be no intermediate social landscape between the home and the distribution center. No intermediate human scales. I can’t say immediately why this would be a bad thing, but my gut doesn’t like it. Nick Nick Thompson thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,p4rsPfl7qCnkvPDXzYT5M-1fZBZKaCDIB1z2Osc-CfFDLgw598S0mD13_Sppk4ua_2uMIZVWNAECmtZ8s2kblHg2quJex4YawfboMGbRTDU_u15bu8836eLAHQ,,&typo=1> From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels Sent: Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:38 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam@redfish.com<mailto:friam@redfish.com>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!?? I can see living without Facebook (I do), but why can't we live with Amazon? It seems like they did a pretty good job of displacing the likes of Walmart. It could happen again. What added inherent value do stores have, other than as a mechanism to prevent he consolidation of market influence w.r.t. to prices? ________________________________ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> on behalf of thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> <thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> Sent: Sunday, January 2, 2022 12:03 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam@redfish.com<mailto:friam@redfish.com>> Subject: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!?? I just listened to this podcast https://feeds.megaphone.fm/VMP5489734702<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2ffeeds.megaphone.fm%2fVMP5489734702&c=E,1,G87ToIzgI5DT4ZpiKuXcRc2EHcS4lpVgIftU98yiNor7PFNa9lCoDMtpA2GT4_2eudXeeatF6BgR-Peqwvf8pBQOnsbOiuYBI693rGSZCjDA8-JbvEUZ&typo=1> a conversation between the former prosecutor, Joyce Vance, and the musician, financier, turncoat Facebook investor Roger Mcnamee, who likens this moment with big tech to the moment before the food industry regulations of the early 1900’s and anti-pollution legislation of the 60’s, moments when Da People reasserted control over over-weening industry interests. He is author of the book, Zucked. An hour-long pod cast is a terribly inefficient way to learn about something, so I hope that one you, for whom none of this is news, can offer a more condensed source. We are basically talking about the Amazon paradox, here: can’t live with it; can’t live without it. How much ARE we willing to pay to have the trains run on time? As usual, I am in need of instruction. Nick Thompson thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,AekdfP2MBl31iUxGjknOMPY6CLKTWZ0Uy_4dTUwGKgNke6kg7BN0qwu3VC8xzay12y6vtDYGszhL0ussBgpgtjOzZjJu9AWkUutwzgaFOibLSYQ0DDICSZg,&typo=1> .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2f%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,6c1hDw-I-XHC_ZStkZsXiT2ShUHKgKly7CIaoYaCXWbVgznocfGx2rmiRYUezbHgbt6ooqJZjG8eRVXMk1IVZdexrkjgabs_-b7egl28XAJYXIPcK5WsdpAa&typo=1 un/subscribe https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,aJQPCieL8dRJ8bByCIGF9grQLNknzJ308mdn7E9wsFmtU2l-QVA1WoQujdxb6FrTTWWLrFtB-RZADkeeKsqVBKf7gzoqV8LeNcWJ4OKpRxRZ6whmow,,&typo=1 FRIAM-COMIC https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,iIbsCSTfK7m1DvfK0eZuO3EHFPbO0h8MXp_Bw4kXa5txdNsy81PKEL5K4lU5D-1SQ5bklvskz4EwfKUtkDntcjPY3rHFMVLVC3JUg3vjCw29DjAS1o5UY0nh5A,,&typo=1 archives: 5/2017 thru present https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,p64yCHvaJEFX77QqASShCNx2e3TMxvwUnzpsO1C3vTN777PRrnbS8P8W95aCa4XCzK-GE3Rdk4juvBCojdTXlPqDLV345Lz4zzRev4WoBAfALZKaFR0aHUBEqj8,&typo=1 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
