I say "buy low and sell high"...

On 1/10/22 4:50 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
So it went down over 20% today.  Should have shorted it.  A lot of my stocks have gone up 30% more or less in the last year--like AAPL.  I wonder if I should sell them short or just sell them.  Advice?

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 4:42 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote:

    Here's a stock that could be shorted, but golly it is doing well
    right now.

    https://www.reit.com/investing/reit-directory/rexford-industrial-realty-inc

    So, one imagines that an 1862-scale flood comes to LA due to some
    enormous atmospheric river, and then it finally pays.
    Ideally there'd be some inverse real estate ETF that was regional,
    e,g. Abu Dhabi, where one expects it to get bad.

    Marcus
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of David Eric
    Smith <desm...@santafe.edu>
    *Sent:* Monday, January 3, 2022 4:14 AM
    *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
    <friam@redfish.com>
    *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
    This is an interesting direction.

    How small a minority does one have to be in, for it to count as an
    arbitrage opportunity?  In the El Farol and Minority Game
    abstractions, any minority is enough.

    If we think about the dichotomy in public health, or in reason vs.
    hormonal aggression, the split in the US (at least by political
    commitments) is not so far from 50/50.  But as far as “profiting
    from the committed wrong”, that market seems to be cornered
    already by a very tiny percent, who have priced in much of the
    available surplus.  The difference between the dupes and the
    honest but powerless seems unimportant compared to the difference
    between both of those and the insiders with power, access, and
    control.  Somehow these richly structured extensive-form games
    with coalitional solution concepts seem very far from the market
    model in which we often think about arbitrage.

    I am also reminded of the aphorism in that other realm “The market
    can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”  Or in the
    case of climate, agricultural, and social instability, alive.

    I wonder what makes an adequate toolbox of concepts and analogies
    with which to think about this (at least somewhat) systematically.

    Eric


    On Jan 2, 2022, at 2:58 PM, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com>
    wrote:

    Nick writes:

    < So, what does a healthy 2040 community look like.   What are we
    working TOWARD, here. Once of the things that the Mcnamee podcast
    highlighted for me was my feeling that, in a chaotic world,
    people like me,/planners,/are just out of tune with the world. >

    I don't think it really matters how people interact in social
    media or what they think.  What will matter is how people adapt
    to climate change and the exhaustion of food and energy, and the
    migrations resulting from climate change.  That's where the
    opportunities will be.   If there are millions of people that
    deny it is happening like they deny pandemics, then things simply
    must be arranged so that the natural accounting occurs.   The
    planners will look past the chaos and make their investments..
    and wait.

    Marcus
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *From:*Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf
    ofthompnicks...@gmail.com<thompnicks...@gmail.com>
    *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:32 PM
    *To:*'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
    <friam@redfish.com>
    *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
    So, what does a healthy 2040 community look like.   What are we
    working TOWARD, here. Once of the things that the Mcnamee podcast
    highlighted for me was my feeling that, in a chaotic world,
    people like me,/planners,/are just out of tune with the world.

    By the way, I think “surfing the web” , as it has been used, is a
    terrible metaphor. What most of us do is like water skiing the
    web.  Bouncing over the wake, never actually getting into the
    water.   Gives surfing a bad name.  A surfer finds the few
    survivable paths through an immense concentration of hostile
    forces.  Surfing is more like martial arts.  In fact we must
    begin to surf the web.   To realize the manners in which its
    hostile forces constrain us and find the few paths that allow us
    to master those forces and come out of the curl safely.  We
    thought it was a playground; now we see it’s a minefield.

    n

    Nick Thompson
    thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>
    https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
    
<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,-Fd2M0MU4wX5y1N6mhhnNrFlsG64cdcJ8jOErlxB0hvFzR4dcEnKSSt2EqX5s2fb-wPOBqSH4X2Ap1mYP24zv3_muYGYijRLpnFKTxxN3dQyGtSp1B6x&typo=1>

    *From:*Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com>*On Behalf Of*Marcus Daniels
    *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 2:18 PM
    *To:*The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
    <friam@redfish.com>
    *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??

    Nick writes:

    < Imagined a world in which we all worked at home, everything was
    on zoom, and everything was delivered by Amazon by drone.  I
    realize this is a reductio, but hum along with me for a few
    bars.  There would be no intermediate social landscape between
    the home and the distribution center.  No intermediate human scales.

    I can’t say immediately why this would be a bad thing, but my gut
    doesn’t like it.>

    I can't think of many examples where the intermediate scales are
    anything but wasteful or intrusive.   Maybe to see a tailor
    coupled to the purchase of certain clothes?  I still drive to
    services (dentist, doctor, hair stylist), just not to
    redistributors, because they don't really add anything.  There's
    still a farmer's market that seems as popular as ever -- but they
    DO offer something unique.    I can drive five minutes to Home
    Depot but honestly half the time their inventory is exhausted for
    what I want, and I end up ordering it online.

    Marcus

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *From:*Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf
    ofthompnicks...@gmail.com<thompnicks...@gmail.com>
    *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:03 PM
    *To:*'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
    <friam@redfish.com>
    *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??

    Marcus,

    I would like to be convinced …. But

    Imagined a world in which we all worked at home, everything was
    on zoom, and everything was delivered by Amazon by drone.  I
    realize this is a reductio, but hum along with me for a few bars.
    There would be no intermediate social landscape between the home
    and the distribution center.  No intermediate human scales.

    I can’t say immediately why this would be a bad thing, but my gut
    doesn’t like it.

    Nick

    Nick Thompson
    thompnicks...@gmail.com
    https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
    
<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,p4rsPfl7qCnkvPDXzYT5M-1fZBZKaCDIB1z2Osc-CfFDLgw598S0mD13_Sppk4ua_2uMIZVWNAECmtZ8s2kblHg2quJex4YawfboMGbRTDU_u15bu8836eLAHQ,,&typo=1>

    *From:*Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com>*On Behalf Of*Marcus Daniels
    *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:38 PM
    *To:*'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
    <friam@redfish.com>
    *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??

    I can see living without Facebook (I do), but why can't we live
    with Amazon?   It seems like they did a pretty good job of
    displacing the likes of Walmart.  It could happen again. What
    added inherent value do stores have, other than as a mechanism to
    prevent he consolidation of market influence w.r.t. to prices?
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *From:*Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf
    ofthompnicks...@gmail.com<thompnicks...@gmail.com>
    *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 12:03 PM
    *To:*'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
    <friam@redfish.com>
    *Subject:*[FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??

    I just listened to this podcast

    https://feeds.megaphone.fm/VMP5489734702
    
<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2ffeeds.megaphone.fm%2fVMP5489734702&c=E,1,G87ToIzgI5DT4ZpiKuXcRc2EHcS4lpVgIftU98yiNor7PFNa9lCoDMtpA2GT4_2eudXeeatF6BgR-Peqwvf8pBQOnsbOiuYBI693rGSZCjDA8-JbvEUZ&typo=1>

    a conversation between the former prosecutor, Joyce Vance, and
    the musician, financier, turncoat Facebook investor Roger
    Mcnamee, who likens this moment with big tech to the moment
    before the food industry regulations of the early 1900’s and
    anti-pollution legislation of the 60’s, moments when Da People
    reasserted control over over-weening industry interests.  He is
    author of the book,/Zucked/.

    An hour-long pod cast is a terribly inefficient way to learn
    about something, so I hope that one you, for whom none of this is
    news, can offer a more condensed source.

    We are basically talking about the Amazon paradox, here: can’t
    live with it; can’t live without it.  How much ARE we willing to
    pay to have the trains run on time?

    As usual, I am in need of instruction.

    Nick Thompson
    thompnicks...@gmail.com
    https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
    
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