What are we hoping a better model will show? Whether the economy will dive off a cliff because the credit markets freeze? That seems to be the driving force as far as this crisis is concerned.
So how can one model whether the credit markets will freeze -- or would have frozen or may still freeze if the $700b bailout wasn't passed? I'm not sure there is a very good model for that no matter how many agents one includes. In addition, whatever the model, the negative outcome is so terrifying to most people that even if the model predicts a relatively small chance of it occurring, probably nothing different would have happened. At this point, I'm not convinced the problem (with deciding what to do today in this crisis) is a matter of having inadequate models. That may have helped earlier, but now it mainly politics and fear. And speaking of fear, here are the first 2 paragraphs (with emphasis added) from a good column<http://www.cepr.net/index.php/op-eds-&-columns/op-eds-&-columns/statement-on-congressional-approval-of-bailout/>. This is the first time in the history of the United States that the president has sought to provoke a financial panic to get legislation through Congress. [Emphasis added.] While this has proven to be a successful political strategy, it marks yet another low point in American politics. It was incredibly irresponsible for President Bush to tell the American people on national television that the country could be facing another Great Depression. By contrast, when we actually were in the Great Depression, President Roosevelt said that, 'we have nothing to fear, but fear itself.' -- Russ Abbott _____________________________________________ Professor, Computer Science California State University, Los Angeles o Check out my blog at http://russabbott.blogspot.com/ On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:29 PM, Marcus G. Daniels <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: > Robert Holmes wrote: > >> Look at this way then - if he'd had access to a zillion parameter >> mega-simulation, do you think we'd all be safe and cozy and /wouldn't/ be in >> the middle of a financial crisis? >> > Yes, then there would be doubt. A N^zillion reasonable scenarios probably > with many different outcomes. Thus reasonable doubt and reasonable > regulation instead of a race horse running off a cliff with blinders on. > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
