You're right of course. I mean, look at the wonderful guidance his model has provided so far. Positively robust. It certainly helped predict our current "credit crunch".
Didn't it? Sorry, I believe Bernanke is every bit as inept as many of the rest of our top officials, and I don't believe toy models will ever suffice at predicting the behavior of large, complex systems such as the US economy. Sadly, it didn't surprise me to discover that this is exactly what Bernanke was trying to do. --Doug On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:36 PM, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: > Kinda depends on what he's trying to model. If you mean "predict $ vs Euro, > price of gas, price of Wachovia stock one year from now" you are right. But > if he's modeling hugely aggregated stuff (inflation, GDP, unemployment, > national debt) and the impact his policies would have then it's quite > possible he'll get just as robust results from a "simplistic" model as he > would from some zillion parameter simulation. > Robert > > On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 8:22 PM, Douglas Roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: > >> Answer to #2: No, but I'm pretty damn sure 20 differential equations >> don't capture the market dynamics necessary to accurately model the US/World >> economy. >> >> >> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:18 PM, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: >> >>> A couple of points: >>> >>> 1. At least he's not using Excel >>> 2. Are you really REALLY sure that the ultra-micro sims in which you >>> specialise lead to better policy decisions than the supposedly simplistic >>> alternatives? (Bear in mind that you posted a couple of weeks ago saying >>> you >>> could get your simulations to produce pretty much whatever result your >>> stakeholders wanted). >>> >>> Robert >>> >>> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 8:03 PM, Douglas Roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/10/03/us_economy_model/ >>>> >>>> *"...it implements the 20 equations to describe the economy during a >>>> credit crunch in a programming language called Matlab from MathWorks*." >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> I'm sorry, but all I can say is "Fuck me to tears." The US's head >>>> financier is an idiot. >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Doug Roberts, RTI International >>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >>>> 505-455-7333 - Office >>>> 505-670-8195 - Cell >>>> >>>> ============================================================ >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>>> >>> >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>> >> >> >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >> > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >
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