Look at this way then - if he'd had access to a zillion parameter mega-simulation, do you think we'd all be safe and cozy and *wouldn't* be in the middle of a financial crisis?
R On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:49 PM, Douglas Roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: > You're right of course. I mean, look at the wonderful guidance his model > has provided so far. Positively robust. It certainly helped predict our > current "credit crunch". > > Didn't it? > > Sorry, I believe Bernanke is every bit as inept as many of the rest of our > top officials, and I don't believe toy models will ever suffice at > predicting the behavior of large, complex systems such as the US economy. > > Sadly, it didn't surprise me to discover that this is exactly what Bernanke > was trying to do. > > --Doug > > > On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:36 PM, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: > >> Kinda depends on what he's trying to model. If you mean "predict $ vs >> Euro, price of gas, price of Wachovia stock one year from now" you are >> right. But if he's modeling hugely aggregated stuff (inflation, GDP, >> unemployment, national debt) and the impact his policies would have then >> it's quite possible he'll get just as robust results from a "simplistic" >> model as he would from some zillion parameter simulation. >> Robert >> >> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 8:22 PM, Douglas Roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: >> >>> Answer to #2: No, but I'm pretty damn sure 20 differential equations >>> don't capture the market dynamics necessary to accurately model the US/World >>> economy. >>> >>> >>> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 12:18 PM, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: >>> >>>> A couple of points: >>>> >>>> 1. At least he's not using Excel >>>> 2. Are you really REALLY sure that the ultra-micro sims in which you >>>> specialise lead to better policy decisions than the supposedly >>>> simplistic >>>> alternatives? (Bear in mind that you posted a couple of weeks ago >>>> saying you >>>> could get your simulations to produce pretty much whatever result your >>>> stakeholders wanted). >>>> >>>> Robert >>>> >>>> On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 8:03 PM, Douglas Roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED] >>>> > wrote: >>>> >>>>> >>>>> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/10/03/us_economy_model/ >>>>> >>>>> *"...it implements the 20 equations to describe the economy during a >>>>> credit crunch in a programming language called Matlab from MathWorks* >>>>> ." >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> I'm sorry, but all I can say is "Fuck me to tears." The US's head >>>>> financier is an idiot. >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Doug Roberts, RTI International >>>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >>>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >>>>> 505-455-7333 - Office >>>>> 505-670-8195 - Cell >>>>> >>>>> ============================================================ >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ============================================================ >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >>> >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >> > > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >
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