I don't think it has to do with the number of individual components
(cells in this case) or else the internal combustion engine would have
lost to the electric motor a very long time ago.
I think the problem is more with the upfront cost - it would be similar
to having to pay for almost all the fuel that your ICEV would be
consuming in the 8 or 10 years following, at the moment of vehicle
purchase.
So, we probably need a similar thing as cellphone companies do: either
you buy the phone upfront and you are free to go whomever you want, or
you buy a subsidized phone with a plan, but then you select a provider
that has good coverage in your area.
Meaning that you would buy an EV with a subsidy by the Charger Provider,
but you are required to install a charger from that provider in your
home and fill up (at home and on the go) at a charger from that
provider, unless you want to pay "roaming charges" to fill up at an EVSE
from a different provider.

And then there is the pay-as-you-go option where you would still own the
car (it is not a shared car which is another option) but only pay when
you are actually using it.
I am sure that there have already been people that have done the math on
business plans for these options, but this would shave off the threshold
for entrance into an EV compared to an ICEV.
I do not know if the business plans would work out though.

Cor van de Water 
Chief Scientist 
Proxim Wireless 
  
office +1 408 383 7626                    Skype: cor_van_de_water 
XoIP   +31 87 784 1130                    private: cvandewater.info 

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-----Original Message-----
From: EV [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of EVDL
Administrator via EV
Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2016 1:47 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Batteries are King (A Gigafactory Challenge)

I'm hardly an expert on these matters, but over 7000 cells in a battery?

Good grief. With the stupefying amount of labor that has to go into 
assembling such batteries, I don't see how Tesla (or anyone) can ever
build 
an EV for the masses

By this I mean an EV that anyone can afford, with performance (including

range) pretty close to an equivalent ICEV.  

I don't mean a $37k EV (you don't really think that $7500 subsidy is
going 
to last, do you?). I'm talking about an EV that costs what an ICE Toyota

Yaris or Honda Fit costs, or less, and presents the same creature
comforts, 
with a range of at least 200 miles.

We know that 100 mile range is plenty.  A few people will accept that,
and a 
few will pay a premium over the cost of an equivalent ICEV.  Most won't.

That's why used Leafs are so unsettlingly cheap - it's supply and
demand.   

IMO, EVs won't become truly mainstream until they cost not just the same
as, 
but LESS than equivalent ICEVs.  I actually hope I'm proven wrong, but
from 
here I don't see that happening with an EV battery containing thousands
of 
tiny cells.  

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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