Don Dailey wrote:
It would be interesting if it would be possible to construct a 2
dimensional model statistically. A 2 dimensional system would not
be a perfect fit either, but would simply be a better approximation.
And another constraint is, it must be supported by evidence. I think
this precision is required because, most sources of intransitivity are
very subjective. Player A feels insecure when B opens at tengen, etc.
Normally, it is because a player knows strategies that "hurt" another
player, although they are not very strong against correct defense.
I don't know if this may help, but its and idea:
If instead of assuming a player's performance follows a symmetrical
probability distribution function (the normal in the case of Elo),
assume the p.d.f is asymmetric, e.g. triangular. If player's have
p.d.fs which are increasing, decreasing or rectangular, wouldn't
that produce intransitivity? I don't know if it is the case, but
simulation should make it clear. If this is the case, the advantage
is it can be created only from the results of matches and not
judging a player's ability for this and that.
Jacques.
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