not to be overly critical here, but...

> Mogo would also have a memory problem.

then the proposed gendankenexperiment (if it could
run for a week in only a few minutes' time) doesn't
even make sense -- if it couldn't make use of all
of the extra time (compressed or otherwise), then
it can't make use of it.  do you mean that if it
had a cpu that ran 7*24*60*2 times as quickly, *and*
that if it had 7*24*60*2 times as much ram, that
it could beat a 1-dan player?

> I think you are falling for the
> standard
> misconception that the computer must be superior in
> every aspect of the
> game to have a chance.   

no, i just said that i'd be impressed.  which i
would.  because i haven't seen any computer program
at the dan level, or even heard anyone claim that
when they doubled (or 10x or 100x or 1000x) the
amount of thinking time for their machine that they
were at dan strength.

so really you're suggesting (almost) that you're
within a log_10 factor of 4 of dan strength.  which
can quite easily be overcome with enough hardware.

i'd just like to see it happen.  :)

> I know exactly how these
> things work.   The
> match would begin, the human would probably be
> outplaying the computer
> and then make some error.   The computer would win
> and everyone would
> cry it shouldn't have happened.    The computer just
> got lucky this
> time.   

i think that if a dan-level player had 10 games,
the first 5 of which were considered just to be
"for fun", and that no reprogramming or recoding
were allowed inbetween, that the program would
either get crushed, or lose by a slim, but
appreciable margin over a 5-game series.

the difference between 1-dan and 3-dan, say, is
about the same as the difference between 1-dan and
2 kyu, or 2kyu and 4kyu, 4-6, or 6-8.  so if
mogo is currently at (say) 8kyu on 9x9, then you're
suggesting that it could gain 9 stones' strength
with a factor of 10000 in time.  this (sort've)
implies that you think that you're within a
factor of 100000 of 3-dan, for instance, if the
only issue is scaling.  or within 10^6 of 5-dan.

an i think that if you were to perform these
experiments one at a time (i.e. give yourself
10x more time, and see if you can beat an 6kyu,
then 100x more time and see if you can beat a 4kyu,
etc.), many of which are reasonable (we all could
donate some cpu time to the task), we could see
if the "linear scaling" argument actually holds
water.  :)

which i'm not saying that it wouldn't.  i'm just
saying that it's a testable hypothesis (minus your
equivocation about ram usage), and we ought to
get cracking to see if it's true.

s.


 
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