----- Original Message -----
From: "John D. Giorgis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Saturday, March 13, 2004 3:56 PM
Subject: Re: Race to the Bottom
>
> I wonder what the underlying dynamics of this trend are.
>
> First, I am always skeptical of arbitrary time series comparisons. Have
> you tried adjusting your boundaries by a few years and seeing if the
trend
> holds? Off the top of my head I know that 1980 was a relative peak for
> the economy ahead of a recession, and 2003 of course is in some was below
> the peaks of a few years earlier. I don't recall the economic situation
> in 1957 off the top of my head.
Here's a time series that presents the 10 year increase in both the
civilian, non institutionalized population and the labor force. For
example, for 1957, the first number is
(non-institutionalized over 16 in 1957)/(non-institutionalized over 16 in
1947) -1
the second number is
(labor force in 1957)/(labor force in 1947) -1
and the third number is
(employed in 1957)/(employed in 1947) -1
increase
over 10 years in
year >16 labor force employed
1957 10% 13% 12%
1958 10% 12% 8%
1959 11% 12% 12%
1960 12% 12% 12%
1961 14% 14% 10%
1962 14% 14% 11%
1963 14% 14% 11%
1964 15% 15% 15%
1965 15% 15% 14%
1966 15% 14% 14%
1967 16% 16% 16%
1968 16% 16% 20%
1969 16% 18% 21%
1970 17% 19% 20%
1971 18% 20% 21%
1972 20% 23% 23%
1973 20% 24% 26%
1974 21% 26% 25%
1975 21% 26% 21%
1976 22% 27% 22%
1977 22% 28% 24%
1978 23% 30% 27%
1979 23% 30% 27%
1980 22% 29% 26%
1981 21% 29% 26%
1982 20% 27% 21%
1983 18% 25% 19%
1984 17% 23% 21%
1985 16% 23% 25%
1986 16% 23% 23%
1987 15% 21% 22%
1988 14% 19% 20%
1989 13% 18% 19%
1990 13% 18% 20%
1991 12% 16% 17%
1992 12% 16% 19%
1993 12% 16% 19%
1994 12% 15% 17%
1995 11% 15% 17%
1996 11% 14% 16%
1997 11% 14% 15%
1998 11% 13% 14%
1999 11% 13% 14%
2000 12% 13% 15%
2001 13% 14% 16%
2002 13% 13% 15%
2003 14% 13% 15%
I started the series with '57, because the data I used started in '47.
You can pick your intervals, but I don't see any drastic jumps...the trends
seem to go smoothly. Granted, data must be 10 years apart to be
independent, but moving a few years allows us to see if any one or two
years dominates.
If you want additional analysis, just yell. Sorry there's no graph for the
visual folks.
Dan M.
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