On Sat, Nov 13, 2021, 12:28 AM <[email protected]> wrote:
> The problem: > Will human death really stop in 40 years? It's been going on for millions > of years, and we still haven't solved it at all really. > AGI means you can have a robot that everyone thinks is you after you die. That's what an upload is, right? We already are able to collect enough personal information now to program the robot once the technology is ready. If we extrapolate Moore's law, where global computing power continues to double every 1.5 years as it has since the early 1900s, then we should have human brain level computation (a few petaflops) around 2045. That's assuming we solve the power problem, which can't be done by shrinking transistors. We might get from 1 MW down to maybe 10 KW by optimizing silicon for sparse neural networks, vision, language, and robotics. To get to 20 W, we will have to develop nanotechnology, which means computing by moving atoms instead of electrons. That will take longer. The human body executes 10^16 synapse operations and 10^18 amino acid synthesis operations per second on 10^15 synapses and 10^23 DNA bases. By Moore's law, we should reach that in the 2080s when global storage matches the 10^37 bits stored in the biosphere as DNA. The other approach is to reverse aging through medical advances. But the cost of new drugs or treatments doubles every 9 years. Life expectancy worldwide has been increasing at a steady rate of 0.2 years per year since 1950 to the current 73, and is slowing in developed countries. AGI doesn't help when experiments take a long time. It took decades to figure out that a low fat diet makes you fat. It took decades to test whether calorie restriction extends the life of monkeys, with conflicting results. The experiment will probably never be done on humans. Globally, the economy has been growing 3% per year since 1800. Doubling income increases life expectancy by 5 years, both within and between countries and over time. Each year of education extends life by 1.5 years. As income, wealth, and life expectancy increase, the fertility rate decreases. Europe, China, and the USA are already producing less than 2 children per woman. In 50 years, Europe will be majority African and Muslim. The USA will be majority Black and Hispanic. China, India, and Israel will be the world leaders in technology, wealth, and quality of life. There will be fewer wars. World population will peak at 9 billion in the 2040s with life expectancy in the low 80s. After that I think we will see the population shift to cultures that either reject technology or use it to suppress women's rights in favor of reproduction. We should see life expectancy decline. Growth without technology will lead to starvation and war. But it's hard to say about the future. In the 1950s everyone expected that by now we would have nuclear powered flying cars. Nobody predicted the internet. ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T956b74065f76478b-Md1977cbba7f9b577d09ab749 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
