As with "AI debates" in general, people can easily talk past each other by failing to acknowledge they are addressing different questions. Ben Goertzel is addressing China's in/ability to create an "AGI" in the sense of Legg, Hutter, et al. Steve Richfield is positing the CCP _is_ an "AGI" in a more vague sense that might, if "black boxed" also fit with "AGI" in the sense of Legg, Hutter, et al. Now, it may certainly be argued that _if_ Steve is right, _then_ it is capable of _creating_ an AGI: "The Singularity" occurs when some AI achieves the ability to create a more intelligent AI, and this threshold of "AI" is the most general notion of AGI.
My approach, respecting Steve's original question, is from a position that what we call "The Global Economy" _is_ an AGI that is already operating with an "unfriendly" utility function, seeing individual human beings as raw materials in its environment to refine into "Mechanical Turks". The only extent to which human quality of life, or even the quality of the biosphere, is relevant to this AGI is the extent to which it can provide resources to replicate its incorporations (corporations/NGOs, governments, etc.) wielding hive-like power over, and ultimately disintermediating life in seeking access to energy and matter. The CCP is merely among the more conspicuous cases of evolution toward such an incipient AGI hive incorporation. Now, having clarified the question I am addressing (Steve's in the OP): Hive specialization in eusocial species recapitulates, in a less effective way, the clone-army specialization seen in sexual organism stem-cell differentiation (modulating SC clone gene expression) into various organs of the organism. The brain is an organ. The CCP constructs its "brain" not so much by altering gene expression of clones but by utilizing its long history of civil service examination to mine the population for "neurons". THAT is where the math comes in to compare the CCP to the US government's intelligence agencies. Having said that, Ben is correct that the CCP's structure is more amenable to this mining operation, and one should see the "private sector" coddled by the CCP as an updated form of its civil service examination tradition. While it may be true that the resulting "brain" is not going to be as capable of producing a silicon AGI as the US, this misses Steve's, or at least my point: The CCP-as-AGI is more capable of "Turking" the US-as-AGI than is the US-as-AGI of "Turking" the CCP-as-AGI. Why do I say this? See my prior post describing all the ways the US has inhibited its own intelligence agencies from mining the population for intelligence that those intelligence agencies can "Turk". Indeed, it is my working hypothesis that this inhibition was the result of the CCP engaging in the _real_ "Unrestricted Warfare" that the document by that name represents as something far more benign. On Wed, Dec 30, 2020 at 5:03 AM Ben Goertzel <[email protected]> wrote: > > I don't think China's slightly higher average IQ is a big advantage for > them... > > However, their governmental organization obviously has some practical > advantages. As one example, they can get their intel/ military work done > directly within their big internet tech companies, rather than via sluggish > military contractors and limited-scope awkward back-channel-ish alliances > with big internet tech companies like happens in the US. This means they > are getting on average cleverer and harder working folks working on their > gov't oriented tech, not due to IQ issues but due to organizational > issues... > > On the other hand they continue to have deep problems with radical > technical innovation due to a persistent culture of mistrust, and this will > cause them real issues, because there are significant differences btw US > and China contexts and copying/adapting Western innovations will probably > not allow them to overtake the West technologically... > > I predict AGI will emerge first via organizations that are centered in the > West, and China will then attempt to copy it, but will not be fast enough > ... because the org that first creates AGI will be very fast-moving and > agile and not that easy for creativity-phobic Chinese institutions to catch > up with > > Note I lived in HK for 9 yrs and made many dozens of trips to Beijing, > Shanghai, Xiamen etc. etc. ... I have met w/ folks at the highest levels in > Chinese tech companies and SOEs and fairly high up in gov't. There is a > lot to admire and a lot to fear there, but I don't think China is really in > the race as regards AGI and nor do they have the capacity to extremely > rapidly play catch-up > > Of course all this could change in 10 yrs, so these comments are most > relevant if AGI is achieved in the next say 7 yrs... > > ben > > On Tue, Dec 29, 2020 at 4:22 PM James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > >> It's "Unrestricted Warfare >> <https://archive.org/stream/Unrestricted_Warfare_Qiao_Liang_and_Wang_Xiangsui/Unrestricted_Warfare_Qiao_Liang_and_Wang_Xiangsui_djvu.txt>" >> and as I've pointed out on numerous occasions, that document strikes me as >> a limited hangout disinformation. Keep in mind the Chinese have a higher >> average IQ than Europeans, their population is several times larger and >> they have a _very_ long history of civil service examinations. >> Extrapolate that mean advantage out to the high IQ tail where the ratios >> explode and it's hard to imagine how great an advantage they have when it >> comes to "peacetime" strategy. Add to that the belly-full of the West with >> Sassoon's steamships delivering opium and Mao calling it "a century of >> humiliation"... >> >> On Tue, Dec 29, 2020 at 6:48 PM Steve Richfield < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> As you are reading this, doing the best you can to survive the Pandemic, >>> consider... >>> >>> The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a pretty good model for AGI, as >>> there are ~500 people working together to provide the best possible >>> management for China as it attempts to interact as well as possible with >>> the rest of the world. A rising tide usually floats all boats, but China >>> perceived an advantage to restrict information about COVID-19 to inflict it >>> on the rest of the world, which is consistent with their internal manual >>> *Unconventional >>> Warfare*, which details LOTS of dirty tricks you might expect an AGI to >>> employ as it seeks its goals. This manual is a REALLY scary read. >>> >>> Why would anyone expect an AGI to be any "friendlier" than the CCP? Why >>> wouldn't anyone expect an AGI to be even nastier? >>> >>> This dirty deed WILL work for the CCP - unless worldwide revulsion costs >>> the CCP even more. I doubt whether an AGI would greatly consider feelings >>> that run counter to profit. We may all be paying dearly for not reigning in >>> the CCP long ago - and we might end up paying more if we turn an AGI loose >>> on the world - for exactly the SAME reasons. >>> >>> Thoughts? >>> >>> *Steve Richfield* >>> >>> >>> >>> <http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail> >>> Virus-free. >>> www.avg.com >>> <http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail> >>> <#m_5607257108388460483_m_-1736473155726088713_m_-9213456288835467840_DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2> >>> > > -- > Ben Goertzel, PhD > http://goertzel.org > > “Words exist because of meaning; once you've got the meaning you can > forget the words. How can we build an AGI who will forget words so I can > have a word with him?” -- Zhuangzhi++ > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery > options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tf065676fd779dd5c-M6ccc0d4beac7562404385bd6> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tf065676fd779dd5c-M5357b2a727cbd27c3a822ecc Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
