-> ... will be very fast-moving and agile and not that easy for creativity-phobic Chinese institutions to catch up with.
Somehow missing the how technology value and supply chains work these days. Below graph should clarify: - regards,https://muskdeer.blogspot.com/ https://muskdeer.blogspot.com/ ---- On Wed, 30 Dec 2020 16:31:45 +0530 Ben Goertzel <[email protected]> wrote ---- I don't think China's slightly higher average IQ is a big advantage for them... However, their governmental organization obviously has some practical advantages. As one example, they can get their intel/ military work done directly within their big internet tech companies, rather than via sluggish military contractors and limited-scope awkward back-channel-ish alliances with big internet tech companies like happens in the US. This means they are getting on average cleverer and harder working folks working on their gov't oriented tech, not due to IQ issues but due to organizational issues... On the other hand they continue to have deep problems with radical technical innovation due to a persistent culture of mistrust, and this will cause them real issues, because there are significant differences btw US and China contexts and copying/adapting Western innovations will probably not allow them to overtake the West technologically... I predict AGI will emerge first via organizations that are centered in the West, and China will then attempt to copy it, but will not be fast enough ... because the org that first creates AGI will be very fast-moving and agile and not that easy for creativity-phobic Chinese institutions to catch up with Note I lived in HK for 9 yrs and made many dozens of trips to Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen etc. etc. ... I have met w/ folks at the highest levels in Chinese tech companies and SOEs and fairly high up in gov't. There is a lot to admire and a lot to fear there, but I don't think China is really in the race as regards AGI and nor do they have the capacity to extremely rapidly play catch-up Of course all this could change in 10 yrs, so these comments are most relevant if AGI is achieved in the next say 7 yrs... ben On Tue, Dec 29, 2020 at 4:22 PM James Bowery <mailto:[email protected]> wrote: It's "https://archive.org/stream/Unrestricted_Warfare_Qiao_Liang_and_Wang_Xiangsui/Unrestricted_Warfare_Qiao_Liang_and_Wang_Xiangsui_djvu.txt"; and as I've pointed out on numerous occasions, that document strikes me as a limited hangout disinformation. Keep in mind the Chinese have a higher average IQ than Europeans, their population is several times larger and they have a _very_ long history of civil service examinations. Extrapolate that mean advantage out to the high IQ tail where the ratios explode and it's hard to imagine how great an advantage they have when it comes to "peacetime" strategy. Add to that the belly-full of the West with Sassoon's steamships delivering opium and Mao calling it "a century of humiliation"... On Tue, Dec 29, 2020 at 6:48 PM Steve Richfield <mailto:[email protected]> wrote: As you are reading this, doing the best you can to survive the Pandemic, consider... The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a pretty good model for AGI, as there are ~500 people working together to provide the best possible management for China as it attempts to interact as well as possible with the rest of the world. A rising tide usually floats all boats, but China perceived an advantage to restrict information about COVID-19 to inflict it on the rest of the world, which is consistent with their internal manual Unconventional Warfare, which details LOTS of dirty tricks you might expect an AGI to employ as it seeks its goals. This manual is a REALLY scary read. Why would anyone expect an AGI to be any "friendlier" than the CCP? Why wouldn't anyone expect an AGI to be even nastier? This dirty deed WILL work for the CCP - unless worldwide revulsion costs the CCP even more. I doubt whether an AGI would greatly consider feelings that run counter to profit. We may all be paying dearly for not reigning in the CCP long ago - and we might end up paying more if we turn an AGI loose on the world - for exactly the SAME reasons. Thoughts? Steve Richfield http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail Virus-free. http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail #_-395063407296960510_m_-1736473155726088713_m_-9213456288835467840_DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2 -- Ben Goertzel, PhD http://goertzel.org “Words exist because of meaning; once you've got the meaning you can forget the words. How can we build an AGI who will forget words so I can have a word with him?” -- Zhuangzhi++ https://agi.topicbox.com/latest / AGI / see https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi + https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members + https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tf065676fd779dd5c-M6ccc0d4beac7562404385bd6 ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tf065676fd779dd5c-M7b8f97e70a44b6e5e283fb6f Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
