I'm pretty sure it's burning other people's money.
Nextlink, for example is expanding their fixed wireless into a town nearby with 
3 fiber providers.  WHY?!
At best, they are going to get the 10-15% of the population that is "never 
happy" and will end up spending so much time/money on truck rolls.

I can kind-of understand overbuilding a town using fiber because that 
infrastructure lasts a LONG time.  Fixed wireless has a short life, 
comparatively.

Jim Bouse
Brazos WiFi
979-999-7000

From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Ken Hohhof
Sent: Friday, September 20, 2024 8:59 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' <af@af.afmug.com>
Subject: [AFMUG] race to the bottom?

I'm noticing some trends with the numbers for FWA that I can't make sense out 
of.

- monthly price is expected to be $30 to $50
- speed is expected to be 100M to 1G
- equipment cost is around $1000 per sub for AP+CPE (if you have at least 
50-100 subs per tower)
- include a free router or mesh system
- throw in freebies like streaming, gift cards, reimburse cancellation fees, 
etc.

I understand with fiber you probably have high take rate and low churn, and 
eventually make that investment back.  But with FWA, it seems like there will 
always be churn, and expensive CPE either not returned or having to be 
refurbished and reinstalled.  New owner might instead go with 5G home Internet 
or Starlink or another WISP (people have lots of choices), or BEAD subsidized 
fiber and now you've probably lost that location permanently (unless you're the 
one putting in the fiber).

So is this a race to the bottom with other people's money?  Or am I missing 
other revenue sources like ads, harvesting and selling data, bundled services?

I get the same feeling as the early days of streaming when everybody was losing 
money to get market share, until the reckoning when they tried to turn a 
profit.  It also seemed that way in the 5G home Internet world with T-Mobile 
and Verizon offering promo pricing, then raising prices, but now they're back 
to $30 and $50 prices.

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