Can you imagine the awesome shit some script kiddie could spell out with
10k dots in the sky
On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 3:51 PM castarritt . <castarr...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I suppose the most interesting failure mode would be a vulnerability that
> allows a hacker to make all the birds maneuver and crash into each other.
>
> On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 3:46 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Combine with the probability that collisions are going to be with birds
>> with 90-180 degree relative vectors. Sats going in the same relative
>> direction should "never" collide (he says optimistically). That means the
>> combined velocities are going to go down pretty quickly (quicker de-orbit).
>> Not so optimistically, they probably won't be direct hits, but more likely
>> glancing blows.
>>
>> I expect something is going to happen in the next 5-10 years, and we will
>> learn at least one failure mode.
>>
>> bp
>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>>
>>
>> On 6/15/2020 12:50 PM, castarritt . wrote:
>>
>> A low orbit bird isn't going to get smacked from behind, so it would be
>> reasonable to assume that the vast majority if not all of the debris will
>> lose velocity instead of gaining it. Also, small chunks of satellite
>> should have a lower ballistic coefficient than an intact satellite (mass
>> reduced by cube of size vs surface area reduced by square), so they should
>> experience greater decceleration from atmospheric drag.
>>
>> On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 2:42 PM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> When things collide they will go many different directions and
>>> velocities, there is no calculation for when that will be cleared, or even
>>> where the debris even is
>>>
>>> On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 2:36 PM Robert Andrews <i...@avantwireless.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> So was my thoughts about debris correct. If it becomes a shitshow does
>>>> it clear itself out in 5 years?
>>>>
>>>> On 06/15/2020 12:13 PM, Carl Peterson wrote:
>>>> > A generic calculation for a 500km orbit gives you around 10 years.
>>>> The
>>>> > design of the starlink satellite is somewhat optimized for this in
>>>> that
>>>> > when it is controllable it presents a knife edge to atmospheric drag
>>>> but
>>>> > uncontrolled it will slowly start to tumble and degrade much faster.
>>>> ~5
>>>> > years at 550km without looking it up.
>>>> >
>>>> > On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 2:02 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com
>>>> > <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> > SpaceX states that at the current service altitude, the
>>>> satellites will
>>>> > be-orbit in ~~ 5 years. That's one of the reasons they went with
>>>> the
>>>> > lower service altitude. The original was up substantially; perhaps
>>>> > where
>>>> > the 10 year number came from.
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > bp
>>>> > <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>>>> >
>>>> > On 6/15/2020 11:44 AM, Robert Andrews wrote:
>>>> > > & I believe debris at that altitude deorbits even faster..
>>>> > >
>>>> > > On 06/15/2020 10:51 AM, castarritt . wrote:
>>>> > >> with a ~500km altitude, they deorbit naturally after ~10years
>>>> > from drag.
>>>> > >>
>>>> > >> On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 12:36 PM Adam Moffett
>>>> > <dmmoff...@gmail.com <mailto:dmmoff...@gmail.com>
>>>> > >> <mailto:dmmoff...@gmail.com <mailto:dmmoff...@gmail.com>>>
>>>> wrote:
>>>> > >>
>>>> > >> Theoretically a Ubiquiti Nanostation was carrier grade and
>>>> > would do
>>>> > >> 150Mbps. It said so on the datasheet.
>>>> > >>
>>>> > >> Just saying maybe the small, cheap satellite will work
>>>> > exactly as
>>>> > >> intended and maybe it'll have a firmware crash during a
>>>> > sunspot and
>>>> > >> just become a piece of high velocity garbage. Even a low
>>>> > failure
>>>> > >> rate over many years could eventually leave a whole
>>>> crapload
>>>> > of them
>>>> > >> buzzing around up there.
>>>> > >>
>>>> > >> .....I'm sure people smarter than me have thought of all
>>>> that.
>>>> > >> Haven't they?
>>>> > >>
>>>> > >>
>>>> > >> On 6/15/2020 1:26 PM, Bill Prince wrote:
>>>> > >>>
>>>> > >>> WRT orbiting debris; it's all good until the first
>>>> "accident".
>>>> > >>> Then we will see how this all shakes out. If it's bad
>>>> > enough, it
>>>> > >>> could cause SpaceX (and all its brethren) to relinquish
>>>> all the
>>>> > >>> orbital space unless/until they provide a mitigation
>>>> plan.
>>>> > To some
>>>> > >>> extent they are structuring their constellation to
>>>> de-orbit
>>>> > >>> quickly already. Plus their sats are theoretically
>>>> designed to
>>>> > >>> de-orbit on their own at end of life.
>>>> > >>>
>>>> > >>>
>>>> > >>> bp
>>>> > >>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>>>> > >>>
>>>> > >>> On 6/15/2020 9:48 AM, Steve Jones wrote:
>>>> > >>>> That explains what this whole CHAZ thing is, they
>>>> wanted first
>>>> > >>>> chance at some space x bandwidth.
>>>> > >>>>
>>>> > >>>> Im not a fan of star link, i think its going to cause
>>>> some
>>>> > major
>>>> > >>>> debris field issues in space for future generations. But
>>>> > nobody
>>>> > >>>> can argue with the fact that it is really cool that a
>>>> guy like
>>>> > >>>> musk exists who just wants to do some really cool shit,
>>>> so he
>>>> > >>>> does some really cool shit. Every kid at some point in
>>>> > life said,
>>>> > >>>> I wanna go to mars. Hes just like, yeah, imma go to
>>>> mars.
>>>> > >>>>
>>>> > >>>>
>>>> > >>>> On Sun, Jun 14, 2020 at 6:04 PM Robert
>>>> > <i...@avantwireless.com <mailto:i...@avantwireless.com>
>>>> > >>>> <mailto:i...@avantwireless.com
>>>> > <mailto:i...@avantwireless.com>>> wrote:
>>>> > >>>>
>>>> > >>>> They are already peering in Seattle, and will only
>>>> be
>>>> > >>>> northern latitudes for a year according to a
>>>> "insider" (
>>>> > >>>> there are hundreds if not thousands of them )....
>>>> > >>>>
>>>> > >>>>
>>>> > >>>> On 6/14/20 1:16 PM, Bill Prince wrote:
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>> In case anyone was watching SpaceX put up another
>>>> 58
>>>> > >>>>> Starlink sats on Saturday. That puts them at almost
>>>> > double
>>>> > >>>>> the number they claimed to need to enable their
>>>> "private
>>>> > >>>>> beta". I'm sure it's underway, plus they're
>>>> running some
>>>> > >>>>> kind of test with the US military.
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>> All the sats except for the first batch of 60 are
>>>> of
>>>> > the 1.0
>>>> > >>>>> design. Depending on which news blurb you read,
>>>> these
>>>> > sats
>>>> > >>>>> all have to relay directly through ground stations,
>>>> > or they
>>>> > >>>>> have some limited ability to go sat-to-sat via an
>>>> RF
>>>> > link.
>>>> > >>>>> We may find out before the end of the year.
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>> They also stated that they c/would start the
>>>> public beta
>>>> > >>>>> when they had ~~ 800 sats in orbit. By my seat-of
>>>> the
>>>> > pants
>>>> > >>>>> estimation, that will be another 4-1/2 launches
>>>> from now;
>>>> > >>>>> maybe another 3 months. Call it September, but who
>>>> knows.
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>> I think the biggest obstacle at this point is
>>>> their pizza
>>>> > >>>>> box/flying saucer on a stick user terminal. I
>>>> heard one
>>>> > >>>>> estimate that the build cost for it are in the
>>>> > neighborhood
>>>> > >>>>> of $1200.
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>> I would say by the beginning of 2021, this topic
>>>> will not
>>>> > >>>>> longer be "OT".
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>> If you want to get notification when they can
>>>> service
>>>> > your
>>>> > >>>>> area, go here <https://www.starlink.com/>.
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>> --
>>>> > >>>>> bp
>>>> > >>>>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>>
>>>> > >>>>
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>>>> > >>
>>>> > >>
>>>> > >
>>>> >
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>>>> >
>>>> > --
>>>> >
>>>> > Carl Peterson
>>>> >
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>>>> >
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