A generic calculation for a 500km orbit gives you around 10 years.  The
design of the starlink satellite is somewhat optimized for this in that
when it is controllable it presents a knife edge to atmospheric drag but
uncontrolled it will slowly start to tumble and degrade much faster.  ~5
years at 550km without looking it up.

On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 2:02 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:

> SpaceX states that at the current service altitude, the satellites will
> be-orbit in ~~ 5 years. That's one of the reasons they went with the
> lower service altitude. The original was up substantially; perhaps where
> the 10 year number came from.
>
>
> bp
> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>
> On 6/15/2020 11:44 AM, Robert Andrews wrote:
> > & I believe debris at that altitude deorbits even faster..
> >
> > On 06/15/2020 10:51 AM, castarritt . wrote:
> >> with a ~500km altitude, they deorbit naturally after ~10years from drag.
> >>
> >> On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 12:36 PM Adam Moffett <dmmoff...@gmail.com
> >> <mailto:dmmoff...@gmail.com>> wrote:
> >>
> >>     Theoretically a Ubiquiti Nanostation was carrier grade and would do
> >>     150Mbps.  It said so on the datasheet.
> >>
> >>     Just saying maybe the small, cheap satellite will work exactly as
> >>     intended and maybe it'll have a firmware crash during a sunspot and
> >>     just become a piece of high velocity garbage.  Even a low failure
> >>     rate over many years could eventually leave a whole crapload of them
> >>     buzzing around up there.
> >>
> >>     .....I'm sure people smarter than me have thought of all that.
> >>     Haven't they?
> >>
> >>
> >>     On 6/15/2020 1:26 PM, Bill Prince wrote:
> >>>
> >>>     WRT orbiting debris; it's all good until the first "accident".
> >>>     Then we will see how this all shakes out. If it's bad enough, it
> >>>     could cause SpaceX (and all its brethren) to relinquish all the
> >>>     orbital space unless/until they provide a mitigation plan. To some
> >>>     extent they are structuring their constellation to de-orbit
> >>>     quickly already. Plus their sats are theoretically designed to
> >>>     de-orbit on their own at end of life.
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>     bp
> >>>     <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
> >>>
> >>>     On 6/15/2020 9:48 AM, Steve Jones wrote:
> >>>>     That explains what this whole CHAZ thing is, they wanted first
> >>>>     chance at some space x bandwidth.
> >>>>
> >>>>     Im not a fan of star link, i think its going to cause some major
> >>>>     debris field issues in space for future generations. But nobody
> >>>>     can argue with the fact that it is really cool that a guy like
> >>>>     musk exists who just wants to do some really cool shit, so he
> >>>>     does some really cool shit. Every kid at some point in life said,
> >>>>     I wanna go to mars. Hes just like, yeah, imma go to mars.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>     On Sun, Jun 14, 2020 at 6:04 PM Robert <i...@avantwireless.com
> >>>>     <mailto:i...@avantwireless.com>> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>         They are already peering in Seattle, and will only be
> >>>>         northern latitudes for a year according to a "insider" (
> >>>>         there are hundreds if not thousands of them )....
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>         On 6/14/20 1:16 PM, Bill Prince wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>>         In case anyone was watching SpaceX put up another 58
> >>>>>         Starlink sats on Saturday. That puts them at almost double
> >>>>>         the number they claimed to need to enable their "private
> >>>>>         beta". I'm sure it's underway, plus they're running some
> >>>>>         kind of test  with the US military.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>         All the sats except for the first batch of 60 are of the 1.0
> >>>>>         design. Depending on which news blurb you read, these sats
> >>>>>         all have to relay directly through ground stations, or they
> >>>>>         have some limited ability to go sat-to-sat via an RF link.
> >>>>>         We may find out before the end of the year.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>         They also stated that they c/would start the public beta
> >>>>>         when they had ~~ 800 sats in orbit. By my seat-of the pants
> >>>>>         estimation, that will be another 4-1/2 launches from now;
> >>>>>         maybe another 3 months. Call it September, but who knows.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>         I think the biggest obstacle at this point is their pizza
> >>>>>         box/flying saucer on a stick user terminal. I heard one
> >>>>>         estimate that the build cost for it are in the neighborhood
> >>>>>         of $1200.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>         I would say by the beginning of 2021, this topic will not
> >>>>>         longer be "OT".
> >>>>>
> >>>>>         If you want to get notification when they can service your
> >>>>>         area, go here <https://www.starlink.com/>.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>         --
> >>>>>         bp
> >>>>>         <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>
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> >>>>         http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>
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> >>
> >>
> >
>
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