Based on recent experience, I don't think the published infection
rates are anywhere close to accurate. Why do I say that? My 10 yo.
daughter came down with something yesterday morning. She came in our
bedroom coughing, wheezing and short of breath. She had a low-grade
fever around 100. We have several kids with asthma, so we gave her a
breathing treatment using a nebulizer with albuterol sulfate. Then we
called our local clinic to see if we could get her into a doctor.
After telling the attendant about the situation, instead of making an
appointment, she referred us to a Utah state COVID-19 hotline. We
called that hotline, and repeated the symptoms. That person told us
that due because test kits are in short supply, unless there is severe
illness, they are telling everyone who calls to simply
self-quarantine, and call back if things get worse.
How can you rely on any infection statistics if they're only sampling
those that are severely affected? It's obvious to me that the
published statistics don't represent the number of people infected.
Rather, they represent the number of severely ill people who are
infected. Those with mild illness are not being included in the
data. At least in Utah.
Craig
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:34 AM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com
<mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote:
So far population infection rates haven't hit more than 1 percent
anywhere have they
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:07 AM Kurt Fankhauser
<lists.wavel...@gmail.com <mailto:lists.wavel...@gmail.com>> wrote:
I'm on the county health board here, they are
extremely worried about what is to come. They say the "peak"
and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid May. They have not
released that to the public yet because they don't want to
create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way
of life for at least a few months. They are also talking about
the possibility of refrigerated semi trailers for the dead
bodies if they get that many. Our county population is over
40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have only 8
ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the population
here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two
hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds
each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are
forwarded to one of the bigger cities which will not be an
option due to overstretched resources in the bigger cities and
them having even bigger problems than us. Consider that some
of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need
hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the
healthcare system. Trump knows all this, he was probably
briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not be
tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of
happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably
be right there with Italy as we speak...
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard
<mhoward...@gmail.com <mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>> wrote:
It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie
<j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com
<mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>> wrote:
People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard
<ja...@litewire.net <mailto:ja...@litewire.net>> wrote:
are you saying that you're not revolting now?
Makes me think of the 3 Stooges line "I resemble
that remark"......
Oh wait. Did you mean that people will start to
revolt? Hmmm.... I thought you meant people were
going to be revolting and most people already are.....
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com
<mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> on behalf of
Jason McKemie <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com
<mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>>
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then
or you're going to have people revolting (myself
included).
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince
<part15...@gmail.com <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>>
wrote:
The isolation can not last more than a few
weeks, or maybe a month - month and a half. At
that point, we should have reduced the number
of walking infections without symptoms, and
maybe have the ability to actually test for
it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool
expected to take years and people only able
to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll
have to find something else.
-----
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
<http://www.ics-il.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL><https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb><https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions><https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
Midwest Internet Exchange
<http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix><https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange><https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
The Brothers WISP
<http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: *"Bill Prince" <part15...@gmail.com>
<mailto:part15...@gmail.com>
*To: *af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be
short term isolation to try and flatten the
curve. With that, all the infected people not
having symptoms will become immune (to some
extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't
think we can keep people bottled up for more
than a few weeks.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
Has anybody laid out what the long term
plan is?
We can't keep everybody at home forever
and we can't stop all international trade
and travel so sooner or later the virus
has to run it's course, or so it seems to me.
I know we're trying to slow down the
spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital
capacity and that's great. Are we going
to somehow reduce social isolation over
time in a controlled way, or will social
isolation end organically as people get
sick of staying home?
On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
I dont know how many times i need to
point out this logic
The US is undercounted, thats a
given. undercounting does not equate
hidden numbers of magnitude
Heres the logic thats completely
being ignored
The deaths associated with COVID19
that werent tested would have been
attributed to flu
There has been no reported increase
in flu deaths per the anticipated
rates this year
The testing that has been done is
very promising. Yesterdays counts of
those tested were running around 8
percent positive. This does NOT
equate to 8 percent of the
population. The "administration bad,
nobody can just go get a test for
curiousity" argument further
strengthens this as a promising
number. The ONLY people being tested
for the most part, are those in the
very high probability category. So of
those assumed to be infected, only 8
percent of them actually are.
We still havent hit globally the
number of infections and deaths from
the swine flu in the US alone. let me
reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there
are less sick and dead, than from
swine flu in the US ALONE. The
current response is such that has
never been seen in the history of the
planet.
Inmates are an issue, with a guard
and an inmate at rikers island
infected now, we have a national
issue. if we dump the prisons, not
only do we have a ton of criminals on
the street, we have hundreds of
thousands of indigent on the streets
in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe
not having locked up such a
percentage of the population in the
first place is a whole other OT
rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the
streets, i cant imagine that having
helped their situation.
Morons on spring break making a point
of interacting even more than they
normally would have is illogical
enough to eliminate any logic.
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM
Mathew Howard <mhoward...@gmail.com
<mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>> wrote:
I don't know that Russia's
numbers are terribly
inaccurate... it's really just
starting to spread there now, and
the numbers aren't far off what
other countries reported early
on, and the cases they have
reported are almost all in
Moscow. They also have much
tighter border controls than most
of the world, and they're going
on lockdown earlier into the
outbreak than most countries
did... so it's not unbelievable
that they'd have low numbers at
this point.
But who knows what's really going
on in some of these countries...
it certainly wouldn't surprise me
if China is lying about their
numbers, it all depends on what
they think is in their best
interests at this point, and I
don't trust any information from
or about North Korea, no matter
what the source is, but the high
level of government control over
everything in North Korea could
certainly give them an advantage
in this situation.
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM
Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com
<mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:
North Korea, Iraq, Iran,
Russia, India, Mexico. I
heard something on NPR this
morning about mass graves in
Iran. It may be years (or
never) before we understand
the scope of this.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM,
ch...@wbmfg.com
<mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
I still believe North
Korea has a huge problem
that they are covering
up. Especially in the
labor camps. Communal
sleeping barns etc. No
sanitation facilities.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Thursday, March
19, 2020 12:34 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG]
OT: virus anomalies
Only if they attribute it
properly. There is plenty
of data to indicate that
deaths have been
incorrectly attributed,
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM,
James Howard wrote:
the death count is
the death count
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