After 8 days of stasis, the Gallup poll numbers have finally changed,
with a significant difference between the candidates:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104611/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
From the point of view of polling and demographics, I would say this
is the most complex and surprising election since the presidential
election of 1948, in which Truman upset Dewey. Some of the major
polling organizations actually stopped polling weeks before that
election, they were so sure Dewey would win. My mother described this
as the dawn of modern demographics. She said "we'll never make such a
big mistake again." She would be amused to see the 2008 election
baffle the smartest pollsters. It isn't their fault as I said; it is
an extraordinarily difficult election to call.
- Jed
