Jerry,
Yes, that would be far too many hits and there has to be some scaling
applied as a filter for that reason. The criteria more precisely is
"significant" peak and trough values. With significant being the trick.
For example, is the peak or trough 3 percent or more away.
There is a seasonal and/or trend component to the data. So I think step
one has to be detrending the series first. If you happen to have a good
notion of how to write a least-squares fit that would be a great. I'll
then be able to isolate the peaks and troughs by differencing from that
line.
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