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Call for Papers and Call for Participation
Second Workshop on Prediction Markets
http://betforgood.com/events/pm2007/index.html
June 11 OR June 12, 2007 (to be finalized)
San Diego, California
In conjunction with the
ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC'07)
SUBMISSIONS DUE March 23, 2007
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We solicit submissions and participants for the Second Workshop on
Prediction Markets, to be held in conjunction with the Eighth ACM
Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC'07). The workshop will bring
together researchers and practitioners from a variety of relevant
fields, including economics, finance, computer science, and
statistics, in both academia and industry, to discuss the state of the
art today, and the challenges and prospects for tomorrow in the field
of prediction markets.
A prediction market is a financial market designed to elicit a
forecast. For example, suppose a policymaker seeks a forecast of the
likelihood of an avian flu outbreak in 2008. She may float a security
paying $1 if and only if an outbreak actually occurs in 2008, hoping
to attract traders willing to speculate on the outcome. With
sufficient liquidity, traders will converge to a consensus price
reflecting their collective information about the value of the
security, which in this case directly corresponds to the probability
of outbreak. Empirically, prediction markets often yield better
forecasts than other methods across a diverse array of settings.
The past decade has seen a healthy growth in the field, including a
sharp rise in publications and events, and the creation of the Journal
of Prediction Markets. Academic work includes mechanism design,
experimental (laboratory) studies, field studies, and empirical
analyses. In industry, several companies including Eli Lilly, Corning,
HP, Microsoft, and Google have piloted internal prediction
markets. Other companies, including ConsensusPoint, InklingMarkets,
NewsFutures, and TradeSports, base their business on providing public
prediction markets, prediction market software solutions, or
consulting services. The growth of the field is reflected and fueled
by a wave of popular press articles and books on the topic, most
prominently Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds".
Workshop topics
===============
The area of prediction markets faces challenges regarding how best
to design, deploy, analyze, and understand prediction markets. One
important research direction is designing mechanisms for prediction
markets, especially for events with a combinatorial outcome
space. Technical challenges in this direction include the thin market
problem and computational issues of order matching, among
others. Another notable issue is manipulation in prediction
markets. Understanding the effect of manipulation is especially
important for prediction markets to find their way to assist
individuals and organizations in making critical decisions. Prediction
markets face social and political obstacles including antigambling
laws and moral and ethical concerns, both real and constructed.
Submissions from a rich set of empirical, experimental, and
theoretical perspectives are invited. Topics of interest at the
workshop include, but are not limited to:
* Mechanism design
* Game-theoretic analysis of mechanisms, behaviors, and dynamics
* Decision markets
* Combinatorial prediction markets
* Market makers for prediction markets
* Manipulation and prediction markets
* Order matching algorithms
* Computational issues of prediction markets
* Liquidity and thin markets
* Laboratory experiments
* Empirical analysis
* Prediction market modeling
* Industry and field experience
* Simulations
* Policy applications and implications
* Internal corporate applications
* Legal and ethical issues
Submission instructions
=======================
Research contributions should report new (unpublished) research
results or ongoing research. The workshop's proceedings can be
considered non-archival, meaning contributors are free to publish
their results later in archival journals or conferences. Research
contributions can be up to ten pages long, in double-column EC'07
proceedings format ( http://stiet.si.umich.edu/ec07/formatting.html ).
Position papers and panel discussion proposals are also welcome.
Papers should be submitted electronically to the organizing committee
at [EMAIL PROTECTED] no later than midnight Hawaii time,
March 23, 2007.
At least one author of each accepted paper will be expected to attend
and present their findings at the workshop.
Important dates
===============
March 23, 2007: Submissions due midnight Hawaii Time
April 23, 2007: Notification of accepted papers
May 11, 2007: Final papers due
June 11 or 12, 2007: Workshop date
Organizing committee
====================
Yiling Chen, Yahoo! Inc
John Ledyard, California Institute of Technology
David Pennock, Yahoo! Inc
Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford University
Program committee
=================
Kay-Yut Chen, HP
Ely Dahan, University of California, Los Angeles
Leslie Fine, HP
Lance Fortnow, University of Chicago
Lee Giles, The Pennsylvania State University
Robin Hanson, George Mason University
Paul J. Healy, Ohio State University, Carnegie Mellon University
Chris Hibbert, Zocalo Open Source Prediction Market Software
Tracy Mullen, The Pennsylvania State University
Forrest Nelson, University of Iowa
George Neumann, University of Iowa
Ryan Oprea, University of California, Santa Cruz
Daniel Reeves, Yahoo! Inc
Rahul Sami, University of Michigan
Bernd Skiera, University of Frankfurt
Martin Spann, University of Passau
Paul C. Tetlock, University of Texas, Austin
Justin Wolfers, University of Pennsylvania
More information
================
For more information or questions, visit the workshop website:
http://betforgood.com/events/pm2007/index.html
or email the organizing committee:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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