On Mon, Aug 27, 2012 at 11:27 AM, Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote:
> (SNIP) The story I see between the lines is that the economics of late > night > TV are changing much faster than the networks can adapt. I can see CBS > and NBC hanging on to Letterman and Leno even at a slight loss for a > couple of years just to maintain the appearance of continuity. I don't > think either wants to walk away knowing the loss of jobs of people > they have worked closely over the years. I don't know what will happen > at the next contract negotiations for either if what is now breaking > even/slight profit/slight loss turns into steep losses. > I think you are basically right here, though it is possible to exaggerate the point. I don't think the late night slot is operating at a loss for CBS or NBC (certainly not at the latter since the cuts, and maybe not even before). The LAT piece says that the Tonight Show made NBC $100M in profit at its peak in the 1990s. It also says the the late night TV market is worth $5.6B, and that cable takes about 84% of that. That leaves close to $900M for the broadcast networks to go after, though that portion of the pie is shrinking, the LAT says it dropped 5% last year. After the Tonight Show cuts, their yearly budget is somewhere around $76.5M ($1.7M/week, not sure how many weeks a year they are in production, I used 45 to get the $76.5 figure above). I have to assume NBC gets at least 1/3 of the available broadcast late night market, which would be around $300M, which would give them more than $200M in profits from the Tonight Show. I may be off here and there, but I think it is a good bet NBC is making more than $100M a year in profits from the 11:35pm hour, and certainly not losing any money. But the huge salaries that Leno and Dave got in the 1990s were based on a significantly larger revenue stream, and it does seem very likely that the stream is not only smaller now, but will continue to get smaller over the next decade. Not only have both Dave and Leno taken a paycut in recent years, but the signal seems clear that the next generation that replaces them should be expecting to be paid $20M+/year. Kimmel makes about $6.5M, Fallon about $6M, Ferguson seems to make a lot more - I am seeing $12.7M. I am not sure how much more Kimmel is getting with his move, but I doubt it is more than $10M, if that. -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
