Viktor Dukhovni <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Tue, Mar 03, 2026 at 01:26:24PM -0500, Jan Schaumann wrote:
> 
> > > On the Web, yes. On the Internet as a whole? I’m not so sure.
> > 
> > Yeah.  For example, only about 0.26% of mail servers
> > (of the Top 1M Domains) support PQC for STARTTLS as of
> > January 2026.
> 
> The top 1M "domains" are of course the top 1M websites

Yes, the input list (Tranco) is likely heavily skewed
towards HTTPS, but not exclusively so.  If you know of
a more specifically targeted list of top domains by
SMTP traffic, I'd be happy to take a look at that.

> Things should look noticeably different circa 2028.

I think if we're looking for adoption purely through
updates of the underlying library and its defaults,
then I'd probably estimate that we'll get to maybe
30-40% by then?  Granted, that's a big step up from
where we are now.

IME, organizations are very much married to the L in
their OS's LTS releases, so unless those bring in the
newest libraries, adoption will progress more on a
10-15 year horizon.

The HTTPS ecosystem moved significantly faster because
it's being driven on the client side by, effectively,
two companies.  The long tail on the server side there
will also be long, I expect.

-Jan

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