Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2020-02-14 Thread Marcus Daniels
W. F. Donkin wrote: "When several hypotheses are presented to our mind which we believe to be mutually exclusive and exhaustive, but about which we know nothing further, we distribute our belief equally among them This being admitted as an account of the way in which we actually do distrib

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2020-02-14 Thread Roger Frye
On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 8:59 AM Roger Critchlow wrote: > > >> When several hypotheses are presented to our mind which we believe to be >> mutually exclusive and exhaustive, but about which we know nothing further, >> we distribute our belief equally among them This being admitted as an >> ac

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2020-02-14 Thread Roger Critchlow
Following up Daston's paper on the origins of objective and subjective probability, one of the files that ended up in my Downloads folder was http://www.fitelson.org/probability/ramsey.pdf, a collection of three essays by Frank P. Ramsey on probability. HackerNews came up with a link to Cheryl Mis

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-31 Thread Roger Critchlow
Physical vs Metaphysical is probably dragging my own deviant concept of Objective vs Subjective into the foreground, as well as my rhetorical style. I think that concrete vs. abstract is identifying categories of conceived object, while perceptual vs. higher-level is identifying the amount of reas

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-31 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
I'm struggling to reconcile something she said from the presentation with what's said in the paper. In the presentation, she said (my probably flawed transcription) "The original vision was: we'd ask about concrete things. And we'd ask about abstract things. And we were expecting to see more agr

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-30 Thread Roger Critchlow
If you're deviant and you know it, clap your hands! The sub-fact I liked, which might be in the Daxxy paper, is that people are very good at evaluating their certainty with respect to facts about the physical environment, but that same feeling of certainty is all over the place respecting the meta

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-30 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
Ha! "There's a fun sub-result, which is, if you have a very deviant concept ... if you have a very weirdo concept that other people don't share, you're actually much more likely to be aware that you have a deviant concept." At least I *know* I'm a deviant. On 12/29/19 8:43 AM, Roger Critchlow

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-29 Thread Roger Critchlow
I thought she was arguing that very mechanisms that google, facebook, twitter, etc. are using right now to engage people's interest online are already engendering and entrenching all sorts of weird beliefs. 6-9 minutes of activated charcoal advocacy videos and you're probably certain that black sm

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-28 Thread Steven A Smith
Marcus - I do like the idea that a good "comedy team" might effectively de-weaponize deep-fakes...   like The Yes Men or SNL perhaps...   there is the risk that such "normalizes" deep fakes, but to the extent that it is already on it's way...  comedy-ifying may be the best (least-worst) alternativ

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-28 Thread Marcus Daniels
Steve writes: < I don't know how deeply technical the presumed election-manipulation of 2016 (now 2020) is, but it *does* seem like the work you reference here implies that with the information venues/vectors like streaming video (TV, Movies, Clips, attendant advertising) and social media (FB/I

Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-28 Thread Steven A Smith
REC - Good find! I am not closely following the development and results of GAN work, but it seems like this kind of study explicates at least ONE GOOD REASON for worrying about AI changing the nature of the world as we know it (even if it isn't a precise existential threat).   Convolved with Carl

[FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know

2019-12-27 Thread Roger Critchlow
This talk was mentioned on hacker news this week and inspired my babbling at Saveur this morning. https://slideslive.com/38921495/how-to-know. The talk was delivered at Neural IPS on December 9 and discusses recent research on how people come to believe they know something. This paper https://ww