Ann,

Unfortunately evidence like that is unquantifiable, so we'll never see
it. It's impossible to say for sure how bad an injury "could have
been." They only way to prove it to yourself is to have a close call
in which your helmet gets destroyed but you walk away fine. This
happened to me and turned me from an occasional helmet wearer into a
dedicated helmet wearer. It's hard to say what might have happened to
me if I hadn't been wearing a helmet, but having had multiple
concussions in the past I can sort of gauge impact severity. I believe
I avoided at least a moderate concussion, if not a skull fracture. If
I hadn't been wearing a helmet, I'm sure I would have probably lived
but would not have continued riding...

Of course, I live in NYC which is clearly a dangerous and
unpredictable place to ride. I get in an accident every once in a
while, and only once has my helmet come in handy. However, I accept
the inevitability that my head will make contact with the ground once
every decade or two and I don't want it to end my riding career. I
know several stupid bike messengers who have gotten concussions (and
have continued to ride without helmets because they are so "badass"
and risk is part of their glorified lifestyle), and I know of one
person with permanent brain damage. My guess is these injuries
wouldn't have been as severe had these fella's been wearing helmets,
but of course I can't prove it. If you ride in the country you're less
likely to get in an accident, however those accidents you do get in
are likely to be at high speeds - so maybe you'll just die outright
either way. At moderate speeds I feel helmets shine.

Anyway, it's pointless to discuss. I know no-one will be swayed since
only impossible facts will convince you. I truly hope you are never
proven wrong by personal experience.

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