Yang untung besar itu developer perumahannya kali. untung diambil pas harga rumah lagi tinggi2nya/overvalued.... dibelakang developer ada supplier material. dibelakang supplier material ada pabrik bahan bakunya.....
MD 2008/10/4 Vic <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > katanya dari outstanding subprime sekitar $3 trilyun yg npl itu > sekitar $500 milyar. cuma yg jadi pertanyaan gw adalah: kemana duit > berputar? > > awalnya adalah iklim interest rate yg rendah. kemudian bank rakus > kasih kpr subprime ke high risk borrower, buat beli properti yg > nilainya somewhat overvalued. setelah itu marak mbs n cdo, yg dipegang > investment bank n hedge fund. pas interest rate naik, npl kpr subprime > melonjak. kemudian nilai surat berharga terkait subprime jatuh, > investment bank n hedge fund pada rugi. > sebenarnya kpr subprime kan underlyingnya properti domestik di us. > berarti duitnya berputar2 di us donk. berarti ada yg hold very huge > cash di sistem finansial us. > selain itu credit loss bisa diliat dari accounting perspective gak? > kalau gak ada mark-to-market kan gak perlu ada huge loss. > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Gambler.BEJ" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: > >> >> Saya masih kurang jelas nih, sebenaranya dari sub-prime mortgage itu >> berapa persen sih yg default/tidak mampu bayar lagi dan berapa persen >> sih yg masih terus membayar? Hanya karena harga rumah turun bukan >> berarti semua orang akan berhenti membayar cicilan rumah toh, terutama >> yg sudah mau selesai cicilannya - mau dijual dan beli yg lain utk >> memulai mortgage baru juga sudah tidak ada gunanya. Bukankah seharusnya >> yg harus dibantu adalah para pemegang mortgage agar mereka dapat terus >> membayar cicilannya yg otomatis dapat meredam sebagian besar ketakutan >> akan SPM (sub-prime mortgage), saya rasa banyak imigran yg termasuk >> dalam kategori pemegang SPM, bukan karena mereka malas bekerja sehingga >> tidak mau/mampu membayar cicilan tapi lebih karena anggapan bahwa > mereka >> mempunyai rating kredit yg sub-prime (mungkin karena tidak punya > histori >> kredit - gak punya kartu kredit, gak banyak ngutang dll). Saya lihat >> sisi ini masih belum terekspos sama sekali. >> >> Ataukah semua ini hanya akal2an konspirasi orang2 "elit" agar bisa > lebih >> kaya lagi? Atau mungkin dalam proses mementung pihak2 tertentu? >> Istilahnya mbah mungkin super bozz sedang beraksi, apa yg dapat kita >> lakukan biar kita bisa numpang bisnya super bozz? >> >> Dean Earwicker wrote: >> > >> > >> > Kalau kita googling, kita pasti nemuin beberapa versi dari Agenda >> > Bozz, salah satunya saya post dibawah.. >> > >> > Yang JELAS: kalau 700bio tembus, dollar nyungsep. Nah dibayangin deh >> > tindakan selanjutnya: >> > 1. Apakah ada yang mau ngeborong asset US (property, saham,dsb) > krn murah? >> > 2. Apakah yang dilakukan China biar barangnya juga kelihatan murah? >> > 3. Bagimana dgn Indonesia? Masih mau naikin suku bunga? Minyak dah >> > turun jauh lo. >> > >> > Selamat pusing :P >> > >> > Udah lah pake MA aja, biar laggard tapi gak pusing. Atau ngumpet di >> > ketek WB ikut invest 10thn... >> > >> > Regards, >> > DE >> > >> > >> > > http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/83221/Bailout-a-Done-Deal%2C-So-What-Happens-Now%3F >> > >> > >> > Bailout a Done Deal, So What Happens Now? >> > >> > Posted Oct 01, 2008 10:04am EDT by Henry Blodget >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/author/Henry-Blodget> in >> > Investing <http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Investing>, Recession >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Recession>, Banking >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Banking> >> > Related: jpm <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jpm>, wfc >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wfc>, c >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c>, bac >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bac>, gs >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs>, ms >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ms>, ^gspc >> > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Egspc> >> > >> > From ClusterStock <http://www.clusterstock.com/>, Oct. 1, 2008: >> > >> > Now that the government has been terrified into rubber-stamping the >> > bailout, what happens now? >> > >> > In our opinion, here's the most likely scenario: >> > >> > * *Hank Paulson & Co. survey the banking industry and decide who >> > will stay and who will go.* JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells >> > Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) will stay. Goldman (GS) >> > will probably stay. Morgan Stanley (MS) might stay. Everyone >> > else in trouble could go. The government doesn't need to save/ >> > all/ banks. It just needs to save some. >> > >> > * *Within a month or two, Paulson buys $250 billion of crap >> > assets.** *He pays more than market value, but not an egregious >> > amount more (because the public will be watching these early >> > rounds). Over the next six months, he buys $700 billion of >> > assets...and then he--or his successor--asks Congress for more >> > money. >> > >> > * *Confidence improves modestly, but banks continue to hoard >> > capital and credit markets stay tight.* Loans stay expensive and >> > hard to get. This keeps pressure on the economy. >> > >> > * *The credit crunch filters through to consumers:* Credit cards, >> > home equity loans, mortgages, car loans, etc., get more >> > expensive, putting more pressure on consumers and forcing them >> > to cut back further. >> > >> > * *The economic news continues to get worse:* American consumers >> > continue to pull back, housing continues to fall (as of July, >> > the year over year declines were still accelerating), companies >> > begin to cut back, which leads to layoffs--which puts more >> > pressure on consumers. >> > >> > * *The global economy continues to weaken: Europe, Asia, and, >> > eventually, emerging markets.* This is already happen, and >> > everyone else is later in the cycle than we are. >> > >> > * *The stock market continues to fall, as corporate earnings come >> > under increasing pressure and hope for an early 2009 recovery >> > fades.* Analysts are still expecting huge growth in S&P 500 >> > earnings for next year. These estimates will get cut by at >> > least a third. >> > >> > * *The government enacts further measures to try to stop the fall >> > in asset prices (stocks, houses)--including an expansion of the >> > bailout plan--but these don't work.** * Governments always try >> > to do this. They never succeed. All they do is delay the > inevitable. >> > >> > * *A new round of white-collar prosecutions send a new posse of >> > corporate villains to jail. Some will be guilty.* Some won't. >> > All will be hated. >> > >> > * *The government announces a new New Deal,* finally investing in >> > the country's infrastructure, in the hopes that this will >> > stimulate the economy (which it will). Investments include >> > broadband, green tech, wireless, physical infrastructure, et al. >> > >> > * *Eventually, asset prices will bottom: Housing down 40% in real >> > terms, the stock market down at least 50%.* With luck, this will >> > happen by early 2010, so the recovery can begin. Warren Buffett >> > loads the boat with stocks, but by that time, most people are >> > too depressed (and poor) to follow him. >> > >> > * *Unlike Japan, we finally force our banks to write down assets >> > as far as they need to be written down...and then recapitalize >> > them.** *This is what we should have done in the current >> > bailout, but we'll get it right next time (we hope). >> > >> > * *We gradually begin a long-term economic recovery,* one in which >> > consumers save a greater percentage of income, thrift and saving >> > again become admirable qualities, we gradually begins to wean >> > itself off international oil, and the bacchanalian decades of >> > the 1990s and 2000s become an embarrassing memory. >> > >> > * *The stock market finally begins a new, long-term bull market,** >> > *in which stocks once again return 10%+ per year. >> > Unfortunately, most Americans will be so sickened by the stock >> > losses they've sustained since 2000 that they'll miss many years >> > of it. >> > >> > >> > >
