Saya masih kurang jelas nih, sebenaranya dari sub-prime mortgage itu berapa persen sih yg default/tidak mampu bayar lagi dan berapa persen sih yg masih terus membayar? Hanya karena harga rumah turun bukan berarti semua orang akan berhenti membayar cicilan rumah toh, terutama yg sudah mau selesai cicilannya - mau dijual dan beli yg lain utk memulai mortgage baru juga sudah tidak ada gunanya. Bukankah seharusnya yg harus dibantu adalah para pemegang mortgage agar mereka dapat terus membayar cicilannya yg otomatis dapat meredam sebagian besar ketakutan akan SPM (sub-prime mortgage), saya rasa banyak imigran yg termasuk dalam kategori pemegang SPM, bukan karena mereka malas bekerja sehingga tidak mau/mampu membayar cicilan tapi lebih karena anggapan bahwa mereka mempunyai rating kredit yg sub-prime (mungkin karena tidak punya histori kredit - gak punya kartu kredit, gak banyak ngutang dll). Saya lihat sisi ini masih belum terekspos sama sekali.
Ataukah semua ini hanya akal2an konspirasi orang2 "elit" agar bisa lebih kaya lagi? Atau mungkin dalam proses mementung pihak2 tertentu? Istilahnya mbah mungkin super bozz sedang beraksi, apa yg dapat kita lakukan biar kita bisa numpang bisnya super bozz? Dean Earwicker wrote: > > > Kalau kita googling, kita pasti nemuin beberapa versi dari Agenda > Bozz, salah satunya saya post dibawah.. > > Yang JELAS: kalau 700bio tembus, dollar nyungsep. Nah dibayangin deh > tindakan selanjutnya: > 1. Apakah ada yang mau ngeborong asset US (property, saham,dsb) krn murah? > 2. Apakah yang dilakukan China biar barangnya juga kelihatan murah? > 3. Bagimana dgn Indonesia? Masih mau naikin suku bunga? Minyak dah > turun jauh lo. > > Selamat pusing :P > > Udah lah pake MA aja, biar laggard tapi gak pusing. Atau ngumpet di > ketek WB ikut invest 10thn... > > Regards, > DE > > > > http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/83221/Bailout-a-Done-Deal%2C-So-What-Happens-Now%3F > > > Bailout a Done Deal, So What Happens Now? > > Posted Oct 01, 2008 10:04am EDT by Henry Blodget > <http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/author/Henry-Blodget> in > Investing <http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Investing>, Recession > <http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Recession>, Banking > <http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/Banking> > Related: jpm <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jpm>, wfc > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wfc>, c > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c>, bac > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bac>, gs > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs>, ms > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ms>, ^gspc > <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Egspc> > > From ClusterStock <http://www.clusterstock.com/>, Oct. 1, 2008: > > Now that the government has been terrified into rubber-stamping the > bailout, what happens now? > > In our opinion, here's the most likely scenario: > > * *Hank Paulson & Co. survey the banking industry and decide who > will stay and who will go.* JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells > Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) will stay. Goldman (GS) > will probably stay. Morgan Stanley (MS) might stay. Everyone > else in trouble could go. The government doesn't need to save/ > all/ banks. It just needs to save some. > > * *Within a month or two, Paulson buys $250 billion of crap > assets.** *He pays more than market value, but not an egregious > amount more (because the public will be watching these early > rounds). Over the next six months, he buys $700 billion of > assets...and then he--or his successor--asks Congress for more > money. > > * *Confidence improves modestly, but banks continue to hoard > capital and credit markets stay tight.* Loans stay expensive and > hard to get. This keeps pressure on the economy. > > * *The credit crunch filters through to consumers:* Credit cards, > home equity loans, mortgages, car loans, etc., get more > expensive, putting more pressure on consumers and forcing them > to cut back further. > > * *The economic news continues to get worse:* American consumers > continue to pull back, housing continues to fall (as of July, > the year over year declines were still accelerating), companies > begin to cut back, which leads to layoffs--which puts more > pressure on consumers. > > * *The global economy continues to weaken: Europe, Asia, and, > eventually, emerging markets.* This is already happen, and > everyone else is later in the cycle than we are. > > * *The stock market continues to fall, as corporate earnings come > under increasing pressure and hope for an early 2009 recovery > fades.* Analysts are still expecting huge growth in S&P 500 > earnings for next year. These estimates will get cut by at > least a third. > > * *The government enacts further measures to try to stop the fall > in asset prices (stocks, houses)--including an expansion of the > bailout plan--but these don't work.** * Governments always try > to do this. They never succeed. All they do is delay the inevitable. > > * *A new round of white-collar prosecutions send a new posse of > corporate villains to jail. Some will be guilty.* Some won't. > All will be hated. > > * *The government announces a new New Deal,* finally investing in > the country's infrastructure, in the hopes that this will > stimulate the economy (which it will). Investments include > broadband, green tech, wireless, physical infrastructure, et al. > > * *Eventually, asset prices will bottom: Housing down 40% in real > terms, the stock market down at least 50%.* With luck, this will > happen by early 2010, so the recovery can begin. Warren Buffett > loads the boat with stocks, but by that time, most people are > too depressed (and poor) to follow him. > > * *Unlike Japan, we finally force our banks to write down assets > as far as they need to be written down...and then recapitalize > them.** *This is what we should have done in the current > bailout, but we'll get it right next time (we hope). > > * *We gradually begin a long-term economic recovery,* one in which > consumers save a greater percentage of income, thrift and saving > again become admirable qualities, we gradually begins to wean > itself off international oil, and the bacchanalian decades of > the 1990s and 2000s become an embarrassing memory. > > * *The stock market finally begins a new, long-term bull market,** > *in which stocks once again return 10%+ per year. > Unfortunately, most Americans will be so sickened by the stock > losses they've sustained since 2000 that they'll miss many years > of it. > >
