For sure - OIL Prices is one kind of fin instruments like other products (CPOs, Nickel, Gold, etc) - it's not depend only on productions, buying pressures as happens in real sectors - I mean that it's so different to analyzings with S & D in classical economics term...
My point of view that sentiments plays much for OIL like other fin instruments + prices could be raisings more, more in order to find, achieve its target itself - eventhough S & D all of the two together is raisen too in parallel movements Happy Chuan, Aria > > > If I am not wrong, oil-price (naturally) is lower before summer and > going-up again before fall, in line with seasonal demand. It is a seesaw > cycle (like Indonesian inflation). Speculations, geopolitics etc are > factors affecting that natural cycle. Should we worry if the trend is > breaking such as cycle then? > > Just my 2 worries :) > > > > --- On Mon, 6/30/08, Elaine Sui <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > From: Elaine Sui <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: MyLRI RE: DJIA Update > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Monday, June 30, 2008, 11:14 AM > > > > > > > > > > Oil price is mainly driven by two kind of news, Fundamental and > incidental. Fundamental issues are like Oil Reserve, production, USD > valuation, off shore drilling plan (still banned by the US senate). The > others are incidental issues like "Prez X says war against America", "Y > militant rebels attack oil wells", "tanker Z has delayed transportation > because of storm", etc > > > > > I see most of the news about oil recently are incidental, which is > fundamentally weak, in other words, can be reversed easily (with another > incidental good news). The other thing is USD is well maintained since > April against Euro and Yen. > > > > > I know, in the long run crude oil is still bullish but not at this pace. > US economy is currently still weak so I guess the only reason why it's > still lingering above $140 is only because of SPECULATION. And you know > who did this. Yeah, those banks who get smacked down by credit crunch. > > > Just my 2 cents, so no disclaimer.. lol.. > > > Elaine > > > > 2008/6/30 JsxTrader <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: >> >> DOW jatuh karena harga minyak naik.., jadi kalau minyak turun >> harusnya DOW rebound.., begitu kah? sebab SEPINTAS saya melihat ada >> tanda-tanda minyak akan koreksi (pls see attachment). > > > >> >> Meskipun MACD baru saja goldencross & Candle membentuk pola bullish >> engulfing dua bar sebelumnya, tapi saya juga melihat ada divergence >> negative antara price dgn macd & volume..., mudah2an tarikan garis saya >> cukup obyektif dan tdk dipengaruhi oleh harapan saya... he.he > > > >> >> Any Comment? Pak Tasrul, Pak Alfatih, and Others. >> >> Salam, >> JsxTrader >> >> ----- Original Message ---- >> From: Tasrul <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > >> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]; >> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com; [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >> Sent: Monday, June 30, 2008 10:43:08 >> Subject: MyLRI RE: DJIA Update >> >> DOW 27 Juni 06 tutup di 11,346.51,ada peluang untuk reversal (lihat >> target MACD kemungkinan pertama di 11,346.21).. jika tidak mampu >> reversal maka target berikut di 10,758.75 > > > >> >> >> >> Juga terlampir DJIA untuk posisi akhir (27 Juni 08) >> >> >> >> Tasrul >> PT. Overseas >> Securities > > > >> >> Research >> Analyst >> Plaza Bapindo Mandiri Tower Lt.16 >> >> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> >> Jl. Jend.Sudirman Kav.54-55 > > > >> >> >> Jakarta 12190, Indonesia >> >> >> Phone 62.21.5277008 > > > >> >> >> Fax 62.21.5277009 >> >> >> >> DISCLAIMER: This email and any files transmitted with it are >> confidential and/or protected by intellectual property rights and >> intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are >> addressed. Any use of the information contained herein (including, but >> not limited to, total or partial reproduction, communication or >> distribution in any form) by persons other than the named addressee(s) >> is prohibited. Please notify the sender immediately if you have received >> this e-mail by mistake and delete this e-mail from your system. Please >> note that any views or opinions presented in this email are solely those >> of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the company. PT. >> Overseas Securities accepts no liability for any damage caused by any >> virus transmitted by this email. > > > >> >> ________________________________ >> >> From: Tasrul >> Sent: Friday, June 27, 2008 11:16 AM >> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; '[EMAIL PROTECTED]'; >> [EMAIL PROTECTED]; 'obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com'; >> '[EMAIL PROTECTED]' > > > >> Subject: DJIA Update >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> Dear All, >> >> >> >> Peluang penurunan DJIA meskipun terlihat masih ada namun peluang >> penurunannya makin kecil. Support terdekat di 11,346.26 dan jika ini >> tembus berpeluang ke 10,758.75, Semua indikator kecuali MACD Optimasi >> (yakni W%R Optimasi dan MFI Optimasi ) telah berada di Oversold Area. > > > >> >> >> >> Semoga membantu >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > > > >> >> >> Tasrul >> PT. Overseas >> Securities >> >> Research >> Analyst >> Plaza Bapindo Mandiri Tower Lt.16 > > > >> >> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> >> Jl. Jend.Sudirman Kav.54-55 > > >> > >> >> Jakarta 12190, Indonesia >> >> >> Phone 62.21.5277008 > > > >> >> >> Fax 62.21.5277009 >> >> >> >> DISCLAIMER: This email and any files transmitted with it are >> confidential and/or protected by intellectual property rights and >> intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are >> addressed. Any use of the information contained herein (including, but >> not limited to, total or partial reproduction, communication or >> distribution in any form) by persons other than the named addressee(s) >> is prohibited. Please notify the sender immediately if you have received >> this e-mail by mistake and delete this e-mail from your system. Please >> note that any views or opinions presented in this email are solely those >> of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the company. PT. >> Overseas Securities accepts no liability for any damage caused by any >> virus transmitted by this email. > > > >> >> > > > > > > >
