BEDA RASANYA..... agus halim <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Kalau minus segitu seminggu berturut2, berasa juga, hehehhe.. Anywan index udah minus hampir seminggu.. it means...
----- Original Message ---- From: Aa <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Monday, December 17, 2007 10:39:39 AM Minus cuma 1%-2% sih belum kerasa apa2.... ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dean Earwicker" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Monday, December 17, 2007 10:16 AM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re:Bearish in mind? Well, the majority is USUALLY wrong.. Iya ya kecepetan postingnya..hehe... belum ada yang depresi kayanya... Regards, DE On Dec 17, 2007 9:13 AM, Veter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Bung DE, > > Tenang aja ini masih masa denial, ada yang bilang turun, ada yang bilang > tetap naik, ada yang bilang Cuma sebentarâ¦..:), nanti kalo udah pada > depresi > baru sah bottomnya. Have a nice day > > > > Salam > > JV > > * * > > *Bearish in mind? Well, the majority is USUALLY wrong.. > *<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/51818;_ylc=X3oDMTJyb2xhOWZmBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzE2NTIzNTUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDAxNzc5BG1zZ0lkAzUxODE4BHNlYwNkbXNnBHNsawN2bXNnBHN0aW1lAzExOTc4MjQxMzU-> > ** > > *Posted by: "Dean Earwicker" [EMAIL PROTECTED] > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > earwicker_dean <http://profiles.yahoo.com/earwicker_dean>* > > *Sun Dec 16, 2007 8:32 am (PST) * > > Bearish in mind? Good. I like when everybody think of bearish, because > majority is usually *wrong*. You know, most of smart players out there are > good CONTRARIANS. > > Successful trader is the one who masters the *herding game.* Read the > article below, and you'll understand what it's about. Read it real slow > and > carefully. > * > After you read the article below, get a piece of paper and a pencil, and > write down THREE of the most HATED and LOVED stocks. Whatever you write, > these stocks are supposed to be NOT ON YOUR PORTFOLIO. > > Why? > > Love and hate are personal and sentimental. When you get sentimental, you > will be irrational. When you get irrational, you lose. > > So go ahead, read the article :) > * > Regards, > DE > > http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2003/1024.html > > * > "The Majority is Usually Wrong"* > > At first it may be difficult to accept such a statement as fact. So let us > pursue the subject a bit. Let us start by dividing the population of this > planet into two groups, the minority and the majority. > > It would seem that only a minority of the people on this planet have the > ability and ambition to study hard, to figure out ways to accumulate > wealth, > and to raise their standard of living. The majority are apparently unable > or > unwilling to acquire the knowledge and take the action which would enable > them to do the same. > > Another difficulty of the majority is the herd instinct which they follow. > The > desire to go along with a large group is evident among people and animals. > This > is caused by the idea that there is safety in numbers â to think and act > like the majority of other people. Anyone who dares to be different from > the > crowd is not considered to be "normal." > > One of the big troubles with modern society is the conformity of ideas and > action. I call it the mediocrity of conformity. Many people are actually > afraid to be different â to pursue unusual ideas. But the road to success > is > paved with unusual ideas, and traveled by unusual people who dare to be > different. In our modern society it frequently pays to be unusual and > different. > > Another trouble with the majority is that they have a tendency to believe > what they are told, especially if something is repeated frequently. The > majority find it is easier to accept the statements of others than to > think > for themselves. > > The minority, who do not believe what they are told, must put forth > intensive effort in their search for truth and knowledge. Sometimes the > quest for knowledge is like sailing on an uncharted sea with nothing to > guide you except the facts you learn as you go along. The success of your > voyage depends on how well you can separate facts from fantasy, how well > you > can analyze the facts you discover, and how well you use them to reach the > right conclusions. > > In the stock market, the majority are inclined to believe what they are > told > in the form of tips, rumors and advice. The minority believe only what > they > know to be facts, and then reach their own conclusions by analyzing those > facts. > > Still another weakness of the majority is their disbelief in change. Most > people do not expect or prepare for changes in the status quo. They > believe > that things will continue indefinitely just as they are right now. When > the > stock market goes up, the majority expect it to continue going up > indefinitely. They do not bother to think about the time when the market > will change its course and turn downward. > > At the same time, the minority know that change is inevitable, and they > are > looking ahead, trying to figure how to tell when the market makes the > change, and planning what actions they will take at that time. The > minority > know that every bull market has been followed by a bear market, and that > every bear market had been followed by a bull market. The successful > investor must possess a mind which is flexible enough to accept changing > conditions. > > The majority of investors are almost paralyzed by their opinions, because > it > is difficult to change an opinion which is well established. When a person > has a definite opinion, there is the danger that he might not be able to > change it until too late to take the proper action. > > Almost everybody tries to form an opinion of the market. Many investors > are > constantly gathering information to help them form the correct opinion. As > the opinion forms, the investor subconsciously becomes more receptive to > the > ideas, which help to substantiate his opinion. > > There are always plenty of arguments for both sides of a case. Since the > equal acceptance of arguments from both sides would result in frustrating > confusion, a person must choose which to accept. Frequently a person > accepts the arguments which support his own opinion, and he ignores the > opposite side of the case. It is human nature to do so. Many people > actively consider and publicize only the arguments which will support > their > opinions. The process is called rationalization. > > The majority seem to have an uncanny ability to buy near the top of a bull > market, and sell near the bottom of a bear market. Apparently that is the > way things must be, otherwise who would the minority sell their stocks to > near the top â and who would they buy stocks from near the bottom? > > One should try to think and act like the minority, for there is little > hope > for the success of the majority. There is not enough room at the top for > the > majority. > > Realizing that the majority is usually wrong in their action near the tops > of bull markets and the bottoms of bear markets, I looked for ways to > recognize majority action at those points I also looked for a way of > timing > the contrary action to be taken at those points. It would not be enough > just > to recognize when the majority was wrong. One must also recognize exactly > when the majority was wrong enough to take the contrary action. > > The words above are not mine. This was a quote from *The Haller Theory of > Stock Market Trends* 1965, by Gilbert Haller. Recently, I have been > showing > you a few charts on advancing volume and advancing issues. I referred to > this as market fuel. Mr. Haller's work only recently became known to me by > one of my old time technical friends. He suggested that I read Mr. > Haller's > book. What I found in this book served to reinforce what I have been > sharing with you over the last few weeks about the lack of confirmation > from > upside volume and advancing issues. As it turns out, Mr. Haller's work was > solidly based on the use of volume and advancing-declining issues. Mr. > Haller used these indicators to show him when the market was under > distribution as is now the case. My point here is that in spite of all the > hype from mainstream and popular public opinion the underlying volume and > advance-decline work is telling us something else and now does not appear > to > be a time to be in alignment with the majority. Given that Mr. Haller's > work was based on what I have recently been presenting to you as "Market > Fuel" plus the fact that I currently have a contrary opinion on the market > I > felt that the above quote was appropriate. I hope that you are able to > find > some value in it. > > > > + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + + Yahoo! Groups Links Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com --------------------------------- Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it now.
