Quote from Klubsaham.com Aneka Tambang, Riding On Metal Prices (ANTM.JK/ANTM IJ - Rp3,550) - SELL (under review) Result
ANTM posted 9M07 revenues of Rp8.3tr or up by 143.1% YoY buoyed by strong metal prices and higher sales volume of high-grade nickel ores. Higher prices guarded costs that have been hiking throughout the year. ???? [size=18][b] DISINI SI ANALIS TIDAK LIHAT REPORT PENGELUARAN BULANAN ANTM, DIA HANYA MENGUTARAKAN PENDAPAT PRIBADI.[/b][/size] As a result, ANTM registered robust gross profit and operating profit growth by 262.0% and 289.7%, respectively. Joint with higher dividend income, net interest income as well as a one-off item amounted Rp86bn, the company's strong operation performance lifted net profit by 373.7% YoY to Rp3.8tr. Sales volume of high-grade nickel ores, gold, and silver advanced by 126%, 83%, and 18% YoY to 5.0m wet metric ton (wmt), 3.7ton, and 18.9ton, respectively, compensating lower sales volume of low-grade nickel ores, bauxite, and ferronickel that dropped 62%, 23%, and 4% to 0.2mn wmt, 0.8mn wmt, and 9,279 ton. QoQ basis, ANTM booked 3Q07 revenues, gross profit, operating profit, and net profit of Rp2.3tr (-37.8% QoQ), Rp1.4tr (-48.1% QoQ), Rp1.2tr (-51.5% QoQ), and [b]Rp958.1bn [/b](-46.8% QoQ). Stock Data PERHATIKAN ANGKA-ANGKA AJAIB BERIKUT INI, ANGKA-ANGKA INI KELUAR TANPA ADA HUBUNGANNYA DENGAN ANGKA-ANGKA YANG DISAMPAIKAN DIATAS! Target Price: Rp2,720 angka ajaib !!! P/E (x): 7.8 angka lebih ajaib !!! KENAPA CUMAN 7.8? APA NGAK TERLALU BESAR? KENAPA TIDAK 6.18? ATAU 5.5? ATAU 4.3? ATAU.....1 (satu) ? P/BV (x): 3.8 Div. Yield (%): 7.0 Comment High metal prices has been the driving factor for stellar 9M07 performance, bringing ANTM sets of record performances from top line (exceeding US$900m) to bottom line (exceeding US$400m). However, cost concerns will be the next crucial theme going into 4Q07 and onwards as oil price continues to strengthen while base metal prices has started to decline. With the absence of huge capital-intensive projects, strong metal prices generated generous free cash flows that helped ANTM solidify its balance sheet, raising cash by more than 4.0x to Rp4.4tr and trimmed debt by 38% YoY to Rp1.0tr. As a result, ANTM's balance sheet reported a turnaround from reporting a net debt of Rp770bn a year earlier to a net cash of Rp3.4tr or net cash per share of Rp355. A strong balance sheet should provide a leeway for ANTM to materialize their acquisition plans. An accidental stoppage of the newly built FeNi-3 unit in mid-2Q07 resulted in a 20% QoQ decline in ferronickel production. Luckily, ANTM was able to offset the lower contribution from ferronickel by boosting the sales of high-grade nickel ores to China. Going forward, ANTM toned down its ferronickel production target in 2008 to 17,000 ton from high 20,000 ton. Gold production from Pongkor has been slow to pick up with growth of only 1.0% YoY, while reporting a 3.0% QoQ production decline in 9M07. AIYA ! TERNYATA ANGKA Rp2,720 DENGAN PE 7.8an DIDASARKAN NETT CASH HINGGA BULAN SEP 07. YAITU SEBESAR RP 355 x7.8 (7.8 sendiri entah angka keramat dari mana?) BARU 1 KALI INI AKU LIHAT SEORANG ANALIS MEMPERKIRAKAN Price Earning Ratio TERHADAP NETT CASH, BUKAN NETT PROFIT KUARTALAN/TAHUNAN! WOW, MUNGKIN INI CARA ANALISA YANG BARU ! ANTM performance in 3Q07 was weak due to: 1) declining prices of all metals produced by the company, except gold; 2) lower sales volume of ferronickel and high-grade ores amid higher sales of gold and silver; and 3) continued cost escalation. Consequently, we are not surprised to by the set of weak quarterly result. We are revising our projections, hence our recommendation and target price. Base metal prices have started to rebound albeit at a slow pace, while gold price is on the up trend. Any gold mine acquisition, could be a potential surprise; yet, it hinges on the quality of the mine. Financial Summary Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q Profitability Performance (Rpbn) 9M06 9M07 Chg (%) 2Q07 3Q07 Chg (%) Revenue 3,401 8,270 143.1 3,628 2,256 (37.8) Gross profit 1,506 5,452 262.0 2,601 1,350 (48.1) Operating profit 1,317 5,132 289.7 2,496 1,211 (51.5) Net profit 809 3,831 373.7 1,800 958 (46.8) Gross margin (%) 44.3 65.9 71.7 59.8 Operating margin (%) 38.7 62.1 68.8 53.7 Net margin (%) 23.8 46.3 49.6 42.5 Adi Hartadi Tel: (6221) 515 2727 [EMAIL PROTECTED] DISCLAIMER MAKELAR BILANG BAHWA RESEARCH DARI SI ADI HARTADI BULL SHIT! Tapi sejujurnya Makelar sih senang kalau ANTM turun lagi karena sejujurnya ANTM overweight ama penumpang retail, sebaiknya para retail kecil seperti makelar dan teman-teman pada lepasin barang-barangnya agar ngereknya ngak susah. hi....hi....hi... Disclaimer on. Daisy You've got friend now!
