kang ocoy nih koq mirip dosen gw lama2. Thank u ya....... tolong share teknik2 valuasi sederhana ya.... kyk yg ini.... coz klo pake DDM, DCF agak males ngitungnya.....
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "kang_ocoy_maen_saham" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Siapa tau koreksi, jadi memungkinkan ada "bargain" price dari saham2 > BUMN yg berprospek baik dan laporan keuangannya baru keluar... > > karena bank2 pemerintah dan telkom baru ngeluarin laporan keuangan... > > Let's Roll on and point their "Target Price - Obrolan Bandar Edition" > with the recent report, plain and un-leveraged Ocoy Style... > > Gordon Growth Model sajah karena gampang dan semua yg punya background > finance pasti bisa, dan kalopun bukan finance jg mudah dipelajari dan > dipakai. > > pesan ocoy sebelum menyimak valuasi ini : > > "beli saham itu anggap beli perusahaan dan bisnis yg perusahaan itu > jalankan" > > berikut ini catatan untuk valuasinya > > Metode Penghitungan dan underlying assumption : > > -Kombinasi Book Value ditambah Gordon Growth Model untuk continuity value > > -Eps yg digunakan = menggannualize EPS YTD sampai q3 ini. > > -Riskfree = 8% > > -Beta = Beta diambil liat Bloomberg, ocoy hoream ngitung sendiri > > -Rm = perkiraan RM tahun depan yg normal 18%-20% > > -perkiraan Retention Rate = Historikal ajah dr taun kemaren > > -ROE = historikal atau sedikit diimprove untuk emiten yg sdg > tumbuh/restrukturisasi/improving management. > > > Valuasinya BV (Book Value) + Bussiness price atau Earning Power Value > > EPV = GGM model = P / (K - G) > > Hit It : > > > BBNI > > eps TTM = Rp 141, Annualise = Rp 188 > Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.16 > RR tahun kemaren = 65% > ROE = Historical 11% -> Dimodif jadi 14% dengan asumsi BNI is on the > way improving its efficiency. > RM = 20% > > CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf)) > = 8% + 13.92% > = 21.92% > G = RR * ROE = 0.65 * 0.14 = 0.091 = 9.1% > P = EPS/(CoE - G) > p = 188/12.82% > p = 1466 > > BookValue = 1245 > > Bussiness value should the ROE improving to 14% = Bv + EPV > Nilai Bisnis = Rp 2711 > > Margin OF Safety = (Margin Of Safety sesuai kenyamanan masing2 lah, > tapi angka yg di-suggest Graham minimal sih 25%) > > Catatan Untuk BBNI : Earning tidak terlalu kuat, tapi andai Earning ke > depan bisa Solid dan Manajemen bisa memperbaiki ROE, peluang upside > masih banyak. > > > BMRI > > eps TTM = Rp 213, Annualise = Rp 285 > Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.36 > RR tahun kemaren = 62% > ROE = Historical 14.75% -> Dimodif jadi 20% dengan asumsi BMRI is on > the way furtherly improving its efficiency. > RM = 20% > > CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf)) > = 8% + 13.92% > = 24.32% > G = RR * ROE = 0.62 * 0.20 = 12.4% > P = EPS/(CoE - G) > p = 285/11.9% > p = 2395 > > BookValue = 1360 > > Bussiness value should the ROE improving to 20% = Bv + EPV > Nilai Bisnis = Rp 3755 > > > Catatan : Size BMRI besar tapi Earningnya belum naik terlalu tajam > juga, makanya ke valuasi belum bisa terlalu tinggi, tapi dengan > sizeable asset sebesar itu, kalo ROE bisa naik bertahap hingga 25% > dalam 3 tahun. we can see a lot more jump to BMRI's Price years ahead. > -BMRI is most leveraged share to each percentage increasing in its ROE > due to its huge asset owned... good management - well system = better > ratios and margin. > > > BBRI > > eps TTM = Rp 388, Annualise = Rp 517 > Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.36 > RR tahun kemaren = 55% > ROE = Historical 29.75% -> Hanya dibulatkan jadi 30% dengan > pertimbangan BBRI akan cukup tangguh untuk memaintain ROE nya yg > tinggi dan baik > > RM = 20% > > CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf)) > = 8% + 16.32% > = 24.32% > G = RR * ROE = 0.55 * 0.30 = 16.5% > P = EPS/(CoE - G) > p = 517/11.9% > p = 6611 > > BookValue = 1406 > > Bussiness value should the ROE Stays Steady at 30% = Bv + EPV > Nilai Bisnis = Rp 8017 > > Catatan : Good and maintained healthy performance makes BBRI keep on > soaring on Price Yet it is fascinated how the financial report can > keep on growing at a good rate and thus supporting the high-tagged > current price with reliable and well managed fundamental underlying > the price. > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yap kira2 begitu, inget aja "market is there for our convenience.. dy > kasih murah - beli, dy tawar mahal - jual" Gitu aja... >
