Siapa tau koreksi, jadi memungkinkan ada "bargain" price dari saham2
BUMN yg berprospek baik dan laporan keuangannya baru keluar...
karena bank2 pemerintah dan telkom baru ngeluarin laporan keuangan...
Let's Roll on and point their "Target Price - Obrolan Bandar Edition"
with the recent report, plain and un-leveraged Ocoy Style...
Gordon Growth Model sajah karena gampang dan semua yg punya background
finance pasti bisa, dan kalopun bukan finance jg mudah dipelajari dan
dipakai.
pesan ocoy sebelum menyimak valuasi ini :
"beli saham itu anggap beli perusahaan dan bisnis yg perusahaan itu
jalankan"
berikut ini catatan untuk valuasinya
Metode Penghitungan dan underlying assumption :
-Kombinasi Book Value ditambah Gordon Growth Model untuk continuity value
-Eps yg digunakan = menggannualize EPS YTD sampai q3 ini.
-Riskfree = 8%
-Beta = Beta diambil liat Bloomberg, ocoy hoream ngitung sendiri
-Rm = perkiraan RM tahun depan yg normal 18%-20%
-perkiraan Retention Rate = Historikal ajah dr taun kemaren
-ROE = historikal atau sedikit diimprove untuk emiten yg sdg
tumbuh/restrukturisasi/improving management.
Valuasinya BV (Book Value) + Bussiness price atau Earning Power Value
EPV = GGM model = P / (K - G)
Hit It :
BBNI
eps TTM = Rp 141, Annualise = Rp 188
Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.16
RR tahun kemaren = 65%
ROE = Historical 11% -> Dimodif jadi 14% dengan asumsi BNI is on the
way improving its efficiency.
RM = 20%
CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf))
= 8% + 13.92%
= 21.92%
G = RR * ROE = 0.65 * 0.14 = 0.091 = 9.1%
P = EPS/(CoE - G)
p = 188/12.82%
p = 1466
BookValue = 1245
Bussiness value should the ROE improving to 14% = Bv + EPV
Nilai Bisnis = Rp 2711
Margin OF Safety = (Margin Of Safety sesuai kenyamanan masing2 lah,
tapi angka yg di-suggest Graham minimal sih 25%)
Catatan Untuk BBNI : Earning tidak terlalu kuat, tapi andai Earning ke
depan bisa Solid dan Manajemen bisa memperbaiki ROE, peluang upside
masih banyak.
BMRI
eps TTM = Rp 213, Annualise = Rp 285
Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.36
RR tahun kemaren = 62%
ROE = Historical 14.75% -> Dimodif jadi 20% dengan asumsi BMRI is on
the way furtherly improving its efficiency.
RM = 20%
CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf))
= 8% + 13.92%
= 24.32%
G = RR * ROE = 0.62 * 0.20 = 12.4%
P = EPS/(CoE - G)
p = 285/11.9%
p = 2395
BookValue = 1360
Bussiness value should the ROE improving to 20% = Bv + EPV
Nilai Bisnis = Rp 3755
Catatan : Size BMRI besar tapi Earningnya belum naik terlalu tajam
juga, makanya ke valuasi belum bisa terlalu tinggi, tapi dengan
sizeable asset sebesar itu, kalo ROE bisa naik bertahap hingga 25%
dalam 3 tahun. we can see a lot more jump to BMRI's Price years ahead.
-BMRI is most leveraged share to each percentage increasing in its ROE
due to its huge asset owned... good management - well system = better
ratios and margin.
BBRI
eps TTM = Rp 388, Annualise = Rp 517
Beta (Bloomberg) = 1.36
RR tahun kemaren = 55%
ROE = Historical 29.75% -> Hanya dibulatkan jadi 30% dengan
pertimbangan BBRI akan cukup tangguh untuk memaintain ROE nya yg
tinggi dan baik
RM = 20%
CoE = Rf + (Beta *(Rm - Rf))
= 8% + 16.32%
= 24.32%
G = RR * ROE = 0.55 * 0.30 = 16.5%
P = EPS/(CoE - G)
p = 517/11.9%
p = 6611
BookValue = 1406
Bussiness value should the ROE Stays Steady at 30% = Bv + EPV
Nilai Bisnis = Rp 8017
Catatan : Good and maintained healthy performance makes BBRI keep on
soaring on Price Yet it is fascinated how the financial report can
keep on growing at a good rate and thus supporting the high-tagged
current price with reliable and well managed fundamental underlying
the price.
Yap kira2 begitu, inget aja "market is there for our convenience.. dy
kasih murah - beli, dy tawar mahal - jual" Gitu aja...
