Time to SHORT this stock? Kalau regional mendukung saham ini cenderung akan turun lagi. Level 3525 saat ini adalah resist BMRI sebelum break high kedua. Bila regional mendukung saham ini cenderung untuk meneruskan penurunannya. Decision is yours whether you want to take profit or S***T this stock
On 7/31/07, swan silo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > bmri > Note: forwarded message attached. > > Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com > > > > > Bank Mandiri > > > > In line with Expectations > > > > · Net income for the 1H more than doubled due to improvements in NIM > and fee income, combined with lower operating costs. However, a quarterly > comparison shows that the 2Q results were not as strong as the 1Q results. > Net interest income declined by 24% q-o-q due to a compression in margins > which was offset by higher fee income, good costs control and much lower > provisioning charges (Rp 459 bn in 2Q vs. Rp 1,359 bn in 1Q). > > > > · Mandiri recorded loan growth of only 7.9% y-o-y and 1.7% q-o-q, > weak compared to other banks' loan growth. In fact, its current loans book > of Rp 116.3 Tn is still lower than at the end of 2006 of Rp 117.7 Tn as > loans contracted in 1Q07. We are doubtful whether Mandiri's target of new > loans of Rp 20 Tn or 18% y-o-y growth is achievable. In our forecasts we > assume loans growth of 12.5% or Rp 14.7 Tn. > > > > · Mandiri's management, however, remains optimistic that they can > achieve this target, with loans mainly driven by consumer and corporate > loans which are expected to grow by 30% y-o-y. Thus far, Mandiri only > expects loans disbursement of Rp 1Tn from loans for the development of toll > roads in 2H. > > > > · NPLs as of 2Q07 stood at Rp 17.3 Tn (15.5%) vs. Rp 17.9 Tn > (16.3%) in the 1Q. Mandiri is also continuing to build its NPL coverage > which stood at over 80% although the rate of increase has declined in 2Q. > Mandiri is expecting a gross NPL ratio of 10% by the end of the year. > > > > · The bank's loan disposal plan is well underway with Rp2.3 Tn > already identified as "Clean" and "Clear", or ready to be sold awaiting > approval from all stakeholders, including the law enforcement agencies. It > will be interesting to see whether this actually pans out given that in our > last conversation with BNI, the other state bank, they still maintained > their reluctance to give haircuts in the absence of a better legal > framework. > > > > · As the result was mainly in line with our expectations, we > maintain our forecasts. However, we increase our TP to Rp 4,385 based on the > Gordon Growth model due to higher ROE assumptions (22% vs. 19.65% > previously) as we believe Mandiri's operations are performing very well and > we expect that the ROE recovery is proceeding faster than expected with ROE > expected to reach 18% in 2008 and 22% in 2011. Our new TP implies a 2008 PBV > of 2.66x, well below the other big banks' valuations such as BDMN, BBCA and > BBRI. Maintain BUY. > > > > > > Elvira Tjandrawinata > > (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3500 > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL (Disclaimer) > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > This e-mail message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity > to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, > confidential and exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended > recipient, please do not disseminate, distribute, or copy this > communication, by e-mail or otherwise, or take any action in reliance on it. > Instead, please notify us immediately by return e-mail (including the > original message in your reply) to [EMAIL PROTECTED], and then delete > and discard all copies of the e-mail. > > > > > ________________________________ > Ready for the edge of your seat? Check out tonight's top picks on Yahoo! TV. > > >
