short sih belum pak James.. cuman out is a must.
potensi coan dari short ngak banyak paling 4 point. Disikat sama fee dan urusan tetek benget 2 point. Bo lui. Support di BMRI terlalu berjajar.. begitu pula resistantnya.. alias ini saham trading range sempit. On 7/31/07, James Arifin <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Time to SHORT this stock? Kalau regional mendukung saham ini cenderung > akan turun lagi. Level 3525 saat ini adalah resist BMRI sebelum break > high kedua. Bila regional mendukung saham ini cenderung untuk > meneruskan penurunannya. Decision is yours whether you want to take > profit or S***T this stock > > On 7/31/07, swan silo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > bmri > > Note: forwarded message attached. > > > > Send instant messages to your online friends > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > > Bank Mandiri > > > > > > > > In line with Expectations > > > > > > > > · Net income for the 1H more than doubled due to improvements in > NIM > > and fee income, combined with lower operating costs. However, a > quarterly > > comparison shows that the 2Q results were not as strong as the 1Q > results. > > Net interest income declined by 24% q-o-q due to a compression in > margins > > which was offset by higher fee income, good costs control and much lower > > provisioning charges (Rp 459 bn in 2Q vs. Rp 1,359 bn in 1Q). > > > > > > > > · Mandiri recorded loan growth of only 7.9% y-o-y and 1.7%q-o-q, > > weak compared to other banks' loan growth. In fact, its current loans > book > > of Rp 116.3 Tn is still lower than at the end of 2006 of Rp 117.7 Tn as > > loans contracted in 1Q07. We are doubtful whether Mandiri's target of > new > > loans of Rp 20 Tn or 18% y-o-y growth is achievable. In our forecasts > we > > assume loans growth of 12.5% or Rp 14.7 Tn. > > > > > > > > · Mandiri's management, however, remains optimistic that they > can > > achieve this target, with loans mainly driven by consumer and corporate > > loans which are expected to grow by 30% y-o-y. Thus far, Mandiri only > > expects loans disbursement of Rp 1Tn from loans for the development of > toll > > roads in 2H. > > > > > > > > · NPLs as of 2Q07 stood at Rp 17.3 Tn (15.5%) vs. Rp 17.9 Tn > > (16.3%) in the 1Q. Mandiri is also continuing to build its NPL coverage > > which stood at over 80% although the rate of increase has declined in > 2Q. > > Mandiri is expecting a gross NPL ratio of 10% by the end of the year. > > > > > > > > · The bank's loan disposal plan is well underway with Rp2.3 Tn > > already identified as "Clean" and "Clear", or ready to be sold awaiting > > approval from all stakeholders, including the law enforcement agencies. > It > > will be interesting to see whether this actually pans out given that in > our > > last conversation with BNI, the other state bank, they still maintained > > their reluctance to give haircuts in the absence of a better legal > > framework. > > > > > > > > · As the result was mainly in line with our expectations, we > > maintain our forecasts. However, we increase our TP to Rp 4,385 based on > the > > Gordon Growth model due to higher ROE assumptions (22% vs. 19.65% > > previously) as we believe Mandiri's operations are performing very well > and > > we expect that the ROE recovery is proceeding faster than expected with > ROE > > expected to reach 18% in 2008 and 22% in 2011. Our new TP implies a 2008 > PBV > > of 2.66x, well below the other big banks' valuations such as BDMN, BBCA > and > > BBRI. Maintain BUY. > > > > > > > > > > > > Elvira Tjandrawinata > > > > (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3500 > > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL (Disclaimer) > > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > This e-mail message is intended only for the use of the individual or > entity > > to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, > > confidential and exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended > > recipient, please do not disseminate, distribute, or copy this > > communication, by e-mail or otherwise, or take any action in reliance on > it. > > Instead, please notify us immediately by return e-mail (including the > > original message in your reply) to [EMAIL PROTECTED], and then > delete > > and discard all copies of the e-mail. > > > > > > > > > > ________________________________ > > Ready for the edge of your seat? Check out tonight's top picks on Yahoo! > TV. > > > > > > > > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > kecuali memang diperlukan. > + + + + + > + + > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > >
