Pak Gema, Thanks atas sharing nya. benar2x menarik! ...
kapan ada seminar mengenai elliot wave + astonacci lagi pak? On Thu, Feb 18, 2010 at 6:43 AM, <ener_...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > > Sangat membantu pak acheng > > Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® > ------------------------------ > *From: * Kwee Cheng <kwee.ch...@yahoo.com> > *Date: *Thu, 18 Feb 2010 02:18:03 +0800 (SGT) > *To: *<obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> > *Subject: *[ob] ANALISA DOW MENJAWAB BPK. MAXIMILIAN KURNIAWAN > > > > Dear Pak Kurniawan > > > Mengenai DOW saya tetap berpegang pada analisa awal di tahun 2008 dan April > 2009. Awal April 2009 saya sudah membuat plot target price untuk tahun ini. > Dan semua itu sudah di rangkum dalam artikel tentang WHEN BEAR COMES WILL WE > READY di www.stocksforliving.com . > > Dalam membuat analisa saya selalu membuat analisa hingga 1 dekade. per 2008 > saya sudah buat hingga 2018, baik time and pricenya. Walau masih scratch, > tentunya deviasi tidak akan terlalu jauh. > > Well, > Berikut cuplikannya Semoga berguna. > > > > [image: The Upside Should be Very Limited] > > > Traders and investors have to take serious attention to this condition. > Since momentum and price always move in a harmony we have to realize that > DJIA upside may be limited when price arrived above 10.000. We will use the > art of Elliott Wave analysis and Astronacci© trading system to determine > the price and time cycle in DJIA. The peak at 14.000 was an end of secular > trend wave 5. On October 30th,2007 DJIA had started a big correction > signal. It fell to 6.400 for 17 months to March 2009. We are afraid to say > that this is just a beginning of a major correction movement. Downside > movement from 2007 to 2009 is wave A which is consists of 3 wave movement. > > Based on Astronacci© time analysis we analyze the width and angle of > correction. DJIA has been declined for 17 months and its equal with 17 > monthly bars, 17 monthly bars is equal with 74 weeks bar. In Astrology > there are few important counts of week numbers, and one of them is 78, > pretty near with total weekly correction bars in DJIA. Therefore the width > of the correction was valid. Then in 2007-2009 correction prices has > overlapped the bottom of October 2002 correction, indicated the decline is > a countertrend wave or entering major wave A correction. Until today it > was moving 3 fractals wave inside the wave A. In 2009 price goes up from > March to December for 10 monthly bars. It is equal with 41 weekly bars. > We also note for the important count of month rules. Astrology mentioned > in 12 months cycle the prices may change significantly. The 10 months > rebound is very near with the 12 months astrology cycle and the 41 weekly > bars is equal with 45 weeks important count. We also found two price > targets of this rebound (correction) are around 10.500 or 11.600. Both of > them are the meeting point of 50% - 66% retracement with 100% - 162% > alternate price projection. If the price can close above 10.500 for at > least 4 weeks, it will reach 11.600 – 12.000 before reversal. The > conclusion of this analysis is the upside movement from March to December > is surely a wave B that consist of 3 fractals. This rebound (correction) > may extend until the next 2 months to reach the price correction target. > > > [image: CHART] > > The Astronacci Momentum is one of our tools to determine when price meet > the time, you can read it as same as oscillator indicator. Astronacci > Momentum indicator is hung at an extreme overbought area, followed by price > which is near the end of rebound (correction) target, and the end of time > cycle (approaching 12 months cycle or 45 weeks cycle). There will be no > reversal before price meet time target. In this case, the Astronacci > Momentum has arrived at its destination before the other. Therefore it > should wait for price and time to meet before big reversal in wave C starts. > > > *Conclusion > * > For now we have 3 factors that may influence price movement. First is a > time cycle. The rebound (correction) should be limited when it was > approaching 12 months cycle or 45 weeks cycle. Second, Price almost reaches > the end of correction target at retracement 50%-66% and 100%-162% alternate > price projection target (We will discuss this later). The last is > Astronacci Momentum has arrived at final destination target. > > > [image: THE DETAIL OF DJIA WEEKLY CHART] > > [image: My Formula]Why we have to analyze DJIA index in high detail > analysis? As we known DJIA has a strong influence to all markets in all > continents. The pattern and price usually formed in same position. > Therefore it will be a must for us to know the leader destination. > > After learn from monthly chart now we go for smaller time frame, weekly > chart. In weekly chart we will examine the detail of March – December 2009 > rebound to have a confirmation whether it was an impulsive or a corrective > wave. First of all we have to remember the primary characteristic of > impulsive wave. *An impulsive wave should not overlap its prior peak or > bottom*. It will moves in good angle of climb, at least 45 degrees up or > down with no overlap. In DJIA weekly chart there are 3 obvious waves > movement only. We recognized it as ABC correction. Take a look at chart > below, the ABC upside with green line is a corrective wave of major > downtrend. The upside movement has been rose for 10 months / 42 weeks until > 10.500 in December 2009. Get the end of wave c correction value is very > important to unload all investment in long or call position in stocks and > option. > > *There are 2 important zones for the end of wave c. Zone 1 is around > 10.400 – 10.600 and zone 2 is around 11.600 – 12.000*. Zone 1 is typical > target of wave C and zone 2 is maximum target of wave C. Weekly oscillator > tells the same direction. Upside will continue in a few weeks. This upside > movement should be used for exit not new buy. > > Where is the next destination after reach the end of wave c? The downside > from 14.000 to 6.460 formed in 5 corrective waves, and it was marked as A. > Based on corrective wave rules when wave A subdivide by 5 waves it will > form 5-3-5 Zig Zag correction. After price reaches the end of C correction > or B, *it may decline for 5 waves to fulfill highest degree ABC > correction target*. It may happened when weekly momentum makes 2-3 times > bearish momentum reversal. > > *We predict the price reversal may happened around February – March 2010, > or Maximum on September 21th 2010. During February to September price > movement may moves in sideways to up*. > > > Salam Kasih > Gema > www.stocksforliving.com > > --- Pada *Rab, 17/2/10, Maximilian Kurniawan > <maximilian_fe...@yahoo.com>*menulis: > > > Dari: Maximilian Kurniawan <maximilian_fe...@yahoo.com> > Judul: Re: [ob] IDX SHORT TERM BULL SCHEDULE - IMPORTANT TO READT > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Tanggal: Rabu, 17 Februari, 2010, 5:54 AM > > > > Pak Kwee Cheng, > > Kalo analisa dow sendiri gimana?apakah sdh mulai masuk bullish?jika ya > sampai kapan? Mohon analisanya jika berkenan.tx > > Sent from FelixBerry® Mobile Device > ------------------------------ > *From: * Kwee Cheng <kwee.ch...@yahoo. com> > *Date: *Wed, 17 Feb 2010 13:51:38 +0800 (SGT) > *To: *<obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com> > *Subject: *[ob] IDX SHORT TERM BULL SCHEDULE - IMPORTANT TO READT > > > > Dear All > > This short term bullish movement may continue at least until Feb 28,2010 > (Date 15 Chinese Calendar) for a Full moon Phenomenon > > *Full Moon for February, 2010* > > - February 28, 16:38 > > > > Salam Kasih > Gema > www.stocksforliving .com > ------------------------------ > Buat sendiri desain eksklusif Messenger Pingbox Anda sekarang! > <http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/messenger/pingbox/mailtagline/*http://id.messenger.yahoo.com/pingbox/> > Membuat tempat chat pribadi di blog Anda sekarang sangatlah mudah > > > ------------------------------ > Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! > <http://id.mail.yahoo.com> > >
