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-----Original Message-----
From: Kwee Cheng <kwee.ch...@yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 02:18:03
To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [ob] ANALISA DOW MENJAWAB BPK. MAXIMILIAN KURNIAWAN
Dear Pak Kurniawan
Mengenai DOW saya tetap berpegang pada analisa awal di tahun 2008 dan April
2009. Awal April 2009 saya sudah membuat plot target price untuk tahun ini. Dan
semua itu sudah di rangkum dalam artikel tentang WHEN BEAR COMES WILL WE READY
di www.stocksforliving.com .
Dalam membuat analisa saya selalu membuat analisa hingga 1 dekade. per 2008
saya sudah buat hingga 2018, baik time and pricenya. Walau masih scratch,
tentunya deviasi tidak akan terlalu jauh.
Well,
Berikut cuplikannya Semoga berguna.
Traders
and investors have to take serious attention to this condition. Since
momentum and price always move in a harmony we have to realize that
DJIA upside may be limited when price arrived above 10.000. We will use
the art of Elliott Wave analysis and Astronacci© trading system to
determine the price and time cycle in DJIA. The peak at 14.000 was an
end of secular trend wave 5. On October 30th,2007 DJIA had started a
big correction signal. It fell to 6.400 for 17 months to March 2009. We
are afraid to say that this is just a beginning of a major correction
movement. Downside movement from 2007 to 2009 is wave A which is
consists of 3 wave movement.
Based on Astronacci© time analysis we analyze the width and angle of
correction. DJIA has been declined for 17 months and its equal with 17 monthly
bars, 17 monthly bars is equal with 74 weeks bar. In Astrology there are few
important counts of week numbers, and one of them is 78, pretty near with
total weekly correction bars in DJIA. Therefore the width of the correction was
valid. Then in 2007-2009 correction prices has overlapped the bottom of
October 2002 correction, indicated the decline is a countertrend wave or
entering major wave A correction. Until today it was moving 3 fractals wave
inside the wave A. In 2009 price goes up from March to December for 10 monthly
bars. It is equal with 41 weekly bars. We also note for the important count of
month rules. Astrology mentioned in 12 months cycle the prices may change
significantly. The 10 months rebound is very near with the 12 months astrology
cycle and the 41 weekly bars is equal with
45 weeks important count. We also found two price targets of this rebound
(correction) are around 10.500 or 11.600. Both of them are the meeting point
of 50% - 66% retracement with 100% - 162% alternate price projection. If the
price can close above 10.500 for at least 4 weeks, it will reach 11.600 –
12.000 before reversal. The conclusion of this analysis is the upside movement
from March to December is surely a wave B that consist of 3 fractals. This
rebound (correction) may extend until the next 2 months to reach the price
correction target.
The
Astronacci Momentum is one of our tools to determine when price meet
the time, you can read it as same as oscillator indicator. Astronacci
Momentum indicator is hung at an extreme overbought area, followed by
price which is near the end of rebound (correction) target, and the
end of time cycle (approaching 12 months cycle or 45 weeks cycle).
There will be no reversal before price meet time target. In this case,
the Astronacci Momentum has arrived at its destination before the
other. Therefore it should wait for price and time to meet before big
reversal in wave C starts.
Conclusion
For
now we have 3 factors that may influence price movement. First is a
time cycle. The rebound (correction) should be limited when it was
approaching 12 months cycle or 45 weeks cycle. Second, Price almost
reaches the end of correction target at retracement 50%-66% and
100%-162% alternate price projection target (We will discuss this
later). The last is Astronacci Momentum has arrived at final
destination target.
Why
we have to analyze DJIA index in high detail analysis? As we known DJIA
has a strong influence to all markets in all continents. The pattern
and price usually formed in same position. Therefore it will be a must
for us to know the leader destination.
After
learn from monthly chart now we go for smaller time frame, weekly
chart. In weekly chart we will examine the detail of March – December
2009 rebound to have a confirmation whether it was an impulsive or a
corrective wave. First of all we have to remember the primary
characteristic of impulsive wave. An impulsive wave should not overlap its
prior peak or bottom.
It will moves in good angle of climb, at least 45 degrees up or down
with no overlap. In DJIA weekly chart there are 3 obvious waves
movement only. We recognized it as ABC correction. Take a look at
chart below, the ABC upside with green line is a corrective wave of
major downtrend. The upside movement has been rose for 10 months / 42
weeks until 10.500 in December 2009. Get the end of wave c correction
value is very important to unload all investment in long or call
position in stocks and option.
There are 2 important zones for the end of wave c. Zone 1 is around 10.400 –
10.600 and zone 2 is around 11.600 – 12.000.
Zone 1 is typical target of wave C and zone 2 is maximum target of wave
C. Weekly oscillator tells the same direction. Upside will continue in
a few weeks. This upside movement should be used for exit not new buy.
Where
is the next destination after reach the end of wave c? The downside
from 14.000 to 6.460 formed in 5 corrective waves, and it was marked
as A. Based on corrective wave rules when wave A subdivide by 5 waves
it will form 5-3-5 Zig Zag correction. After price reaches the end of
C correction or B, it may decline for 5 waves to fulfill highest degree ABC
correction target. It may happened when weekly momentum makes 2-3 times
bearish momentum reversal.
We
predict the price reversal may happened around February – March 2010,
or Maximum on September 21th 2010. During February to September price
movement may moves in sideways to up.
Salam Kasih
Gema
www.stocksforliving.com
--- Pada Rab, 17/2/10, Maximilian Kurniawan <maximilian_fe...@yahoo.com>
menulis:
Dari: Maximilian Kurniawan <maximilian_fe...@yahoo.com>
Judul: Re: [ob] IDX SHORT TERM BULL SCHEDULE - IMPORTANT TO READT
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Tanggal: Rabu, 17 Februari, 2010, 5:54 AM
Pak Kwee Cheng,
Kalo analisa dow sendiri gimana?apakah sdh mulai masuk bullish?jika ya sampai
kapan? Mohon analisanya jika berkenan.txSent from FelixBerry® Mobile
DeviceFrom: Kwee Cheng <kwee.ch...@yahoo. com>
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2010 13:51:38 +0800 (SGT)To: <obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups.
com>Subject: [ob] IDX SHORT TERM BULL SCHEDULE - IMPORTANT TO READT
Dear All
This short term bullish movement may continue at least until Feb 28,2010 (Date
15 Chinese Calendar) for a Full moon Phenomenon
Full Moon for February, 2010
February 28, 16:38
Salam Kasih
Gema
www.stocksforliving .com
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