Anda agak klise Billy. Jangan begitulah, kalau punya barang.
Newmont deal too confusing: Who bought what?
The
ownership split between the regional government and Multicapital for the 10%
stake
in Newmont Nusa Tenggara remains unclear. We do know from the media
the
ownership of Multicapital: Bakrie Capital, 95% stake; BUMI, 5%. But yesterday
the
local media reported that the US$391mn payment all transferred from
BUMI’s
account.
At this point, we’re not sure how to value BUMI’s stake in Newmont.
Earnings, PO
cut further on higher debt
To
factor in the recent debt issuance of US$600mn (US$300mn from CS end-Oct
and
recent US$300mn bond), we cut our earnings further by 7% for 2010E and
11% for
2011E. We cut our PO
by 7% to Rp2,700, implying 17x 2010E P/E. We
continue
to question BUMI’s rationale to increase its debt, while in the meantime
the
long-term value from the newly acquired assets is difficult to assess looking
at
how the
Newmont acquisition was done.
BHP’s Maruwai – not yet a done deal
for BUMI
We
think investors are holding BUMI shares in anticipation that it will get
BHP’s
Maruwai
coal project. But besides BUMI, Adaro is also interested. Moreover, we
think
Adaro has geared up enough in anticipation for this acquisition while we see
BUMI
requiring more debt. Next big ticket items for BUMI that we can think of are
14%
stake in Newmont and an estimated capex of US$1bn required for its coal
mine
expansion.
Bullish on coal price; focus on SAR and Adaro
We
continue to be bullish on coal price, especially with the approach of
December.
To put things into context, while China demand is picking up because
of the
snow storm, Indonesia
reportedly had to cut supply 8.5% MoM on bad
weather.
But since there are too many moving parts in BUMI, we prefer SAR and
Adaro
on coal price.
SAR and ADRO liquidity improving
One of
BUMI’s selling points for investors who wanted exposure to Indonesia coal
was its
liquidity. YTD, BUMI’s trading value has been roughly US$32mn, vs.
SAR’s
US$22mn and ADRO’s US$7mn. But in the last one month, we have seen
both SAR and ADRO improve to US$25mn and
US$22mn, respectively.
________________________________
Dari: billy_budiman92 <billybudima...@yahoo.com>
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Terkirim: Rab, 18 November, 2009 17:58:43
Judul: [ob] Merril Lynch : BUMI BUY ( TP : 2.700 )
BUMI: Broker ML Rekomendasi Buy, PO 2.700
Broker ML merekomendasikan rating BUY dengan Price Objective (PO) Rp2.700/saham
terkait:
* Kesepakatan Newmont terlalu membingungkan. Who bought what?
Kepemilikan dibagi antara pemerintah daerah dan Multicapital untuk 10% saham
NTT tetap tidak jelas.
Berdasarkan data dari Media, porsi kepemilikan Multicapital yakni Bakrie
Capital, 95% saham
dan sisanya BUMI, 5%. Tetapi, kemarin media lokal melaporkan bahwa pembayaran
sebesar
US $ 391 juta secara keseluruhan dibayar oleh BUMI.
Pada titik tersebut, ML tidak yakin berapa banyak nilai saham BUMI di Newmont
* ML memangkas earning sebanyak 7% di 2010E dan 11% di 2011E, karena adanya
penerbitan utang baru
US$600 juta (US$300 juta dari CS hingga akhir Oktober dan obligasi baru-baru
ini US$300 juta)
* ML memangkas PO nya sebanyak 7% jadi Rp2700, mengimpilkasikan 17x 2010E P/E
* Maruwai belum menjadi milik BUMI.
ML berpandangan bahwa investor tetap memegang saham BUMI untuk mengantisipasi
pembelian Maruwai oleh BUMI, meski selain BUMI, ADRO juga tertarik. Terlebih ML
melihat
ADRO sudah siap dari segi finansial sedangkan BUMI masih harus mencari
pinjaman.
salah satu target lainnya menurut ML adalah 14% saham Newmont dan capex senilai
US$1 miliar
untuk ekspansi tambangnya
* Bullish untuk harga Batubara, fokus pada SAR dan ADRO
* Likuiditas SAR dan ADRO meningkat
YTD, nilai perdagangan BUMI telah capai sekitar $32 juta vs SAR's US$22 juta
dan ADRO US$7 juta.
Namun dalam satu bulan terakhir, nilai perdagangan SAR dan ADRO naik
masing-masing jadi
US $ 25 juta dan US $ 22 juta.
Ya, masa cuma 75 perak :p, tinggal DB dink yang belum upgrade2 :p
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