Yes It Is, as shown in ur kindly attached Doc., US Export Hadnt Improved much in H1. Should Commodity Price Rise Higher and Faster than the actual economic recovery (we can use US's Export as an Indicator) than i guess the Gank should exit and bundled the profit at the level where the commodity price would disrupt the economic recovery..
but its much too early to say economic recovery is not running as well as we think they were. atleast low interest and money stimulus should start showing its effect in H2 data. problem is some guys already went ahead of the curve and discounting the recovery. so any downside surprises on the recovery might prove catastrophic to the equity market. it might be simple but i think we shouldnt underestimate the effect of low interest-rate environment. remember the old formula back in the beginner economy class that the forecasted 1-2 year economic growth sets by the Monetary Regime is a function of ten-year note yield minus three-month bill yield), it is sitting at about 3% Spread now and the monetary regime is throwing all tools available to pump the gear back. so H2 09 Figure is the ringing bell i guess. all the folks here might go a bit ahead of the curve,but i guess its okay for Indonesian to be so. we're cool aint we? double economic engine growth. domestic dependent-play and rising commodity-play is okay for us. the million dollar question el, is who will be the "World Consumer" now?, Who will be purchasing all those goods and supplies and exports? Emerging Nations?, Wealthy Middle East? where will the fund flow go? 2009/9/9 Elaine Sui <elainesu...@gmail.com> > > > *Kindly help me digest this doc. I saw a narrowing trade gap in 1H, which > was mostly caused by falling oil price, that's why ppl see this as a > recovery. But what if commodities rally again in 2H? Not good, leh.. > > Elaine** > * > 2009/9/9 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> > >> >> >> Dollar Lemah Is Good For US, Pokok Hutang dan Pembayaran Hutang Mereka yg >> seJibun kan Nominalnya tetap... "Nilai" Hutang Existing mereka jadi turun.. >> Plus harga Produksi dan barang2 mereka juga jadi lebih kompetitif di pasar >> ekspor.. Kill 2 Dragons with 1 Stone (Cina ketiban sial, cadangan devisa >> banyak di Dollar en pasar ekspor ketimpa saingan Barang Murah kompetitif >> US).. >> >> 2009/9/9 artomoro9 <artomo...@yahoo.co.id> >> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> kutipan dari Kontan Online : >>> >>> ".... >>> >>> Ekonom Adrian Panggabean kepada KONTAN berkata, "Ada peluang besar dolar >>> AS akan jatuh". Sebab, kini ada triliunan dolar AS di neraca Federal >>> Reserve, sementara defisit AS US$ 2 triliun. Posisi ini berpeluang menaikkan >>> suplai dolar AS di pasar. >>> >>> Banjir dolar AS ini akan menyebabkan inflasi. Suku bunga pun tetap rendah >>> guna meredam inflasi, sehingga imbal hasil obligasi dolar AS tetap rendah. >>> Ujungnya, orang tak meminati dolar AS. >>> >>> >>> Investor akan berpaling ke komoditas. Tak heran, emas kemarin menembus >>> US$ 1.000 per troy ounce. Adrian bilang, perburuan komoditas juga akan >>> membuat bursa saham menggelembung (bubble). >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> http://www.kontan.co.id/index.php/internasional/news/21295/Profesor-Roubini-Meramal-Dolar-AS-Ambruk >>> >>> >>> >>> note: cermati terus perkembangan ini, mudah mudahan entry dan exitnya >>> pas. >>> >>> >>> >>> regards, >>> A9 >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------ >>> Akses email lebih cepat. >>> <http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylc=X3oDMTFndmQxc2JlBHRtX2RtZWNoA1RleHQgTGluawR0bV9sbmsDVTExMDM0NjkEdG1fbmV0A1lhaG9vIQ--/SIG=11kadq57p/**http%3A//downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer/> >>> Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade browser ke Internet Explorer 8 baru >>> yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan di sini! >>> (Gratis)<http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylc=X3oDMTFndmQxc2JlBHRtX2RtZWNoA1RleHQgTGluawR0bV9sbmsDVTExMDM0NjkEdG1fbmV0A1lhaG9vIQ--/SIG=11kadq57p/**http%3A//downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer/> >>> >> >> >> >> -- >> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the >> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, >> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that >> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only >> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all >> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. >> - Richard Feynman >> >> >> > > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
