Dengan UU yang baru gimana yah nasip DEWA? Kan katanya pemilik tambang tidak
bole mengunakan kontraktor yang terafiliasi..
Sent from my BlackBerry®
powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT
-----Original Message-----
From: lkm jkt <lkm...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 13:27:19
To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: Re: Bls: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy:
Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook
Kang Bagus .
ASP = ini singkatan apa ya
maaf loh pertanyaan terlalu dasar
trims
2009/9/2 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com>
>
>
> Indeed EPV BUMI bisa kasih angka diatas Rp 3000 kalo ASPnya bagus. (dan
> kalo bicara long term memang logisnya ASP Coal pasti bagus) tapi jangka
> pendek harus in-check dulu volume outputnya. volume output juga bisa jadi
> indikator ASP karena kalo volume gak terlalu digenjot bisa berarti juga ada
> kesulitan buat dapet pemesan yg mau beli di ASP tinggi.
>
> kita liat volume produksi aja. terutama karena dileep selalu bilang 100
> juta ton di 2012 atau kenaikan 50 juta ton dari angka output tahun 2008 yang
> berarti kita mau liat ada peningkatan volume 7-12 juta ton tahun ini. (kalo
> bisa 100 juta ton 2012 mah BUMI 10000 iya deh)
>
> minimal manajemen harus TUNJUKKIN operation-wise sanggup kasih kita bukti
> peningkatan dan target volume dan penjualan termaterialisasi., baru deh fair
> kita hargain yg PANTES di pasar. masa manajemen ngurusin CA en harga saham
> di pasar sih bukannya fokus produksi dan operasi.
>
> On Wed, Sep 2, 2009 at 12:43 PM, Bagus Putra Perdana <
> disclosure....@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Harga Target diatas 3000 terlalu demanding dan kurang kasih proteksi
>> downside kalo ada capaian yg gak sesuai proyeksi.
>>
>> Sell-Siders terlalu fokus pada ASP 2010-2011 dan setelahnya., analisa
>> mereka terlalu menitik-beratkan pada ASP bukan volume tercapai.
>> ini memberikan proteksi yg minim untuk downside karena ASP sangat sulit
>> untuk ditebak dan upgrade-downgrade asumsi $5-$10 untuk ASP aja udah enteng
>> ngangkat TP dari netral-buy ato sebaliknya. harusnya lebih ke volume
>> produksi lebih aman untuk dicermati. karena ;
>>
>> 1. Volume yg tidak sesuai harapan bisa berarti ada perlambatan pesanan
>> dari pembeli mancanegara (produsen2 listrik nunggu ekonomi benar2 pulih jd
>> tunda pesanan atau re-negosiasi). Ingat BUMI 2008 cuma bisa Output 53 Juta
>> Ton. hanya meningkat 1 juta ton dari 2007 yg 52 Juta ton. meski memang BUMI
>> dirundung masalah batas lahan dan hujan, ini sih kasih minimal produksi bisa
>> di level 55 juta ton tapi ya untuk upside menuju 100 juta ton 2012 kesannya
>> terlalu muluk saat ini.
>>
>> 2. tidak segampang itu elevate volume produksi.
>> Dharma Henwa untuk Q109 cuma membukukan kenaikan pendapatan kurang
>> dari 10% dari Q408, sementara pendapatan mereka kan dari volume overburden
>> removal, volume overburden removal berarti tidak naik signifikan dan berarti
>> KPC tidak dalam langkah rapid kejar produksi karena mungkin pasar rill batu
>> bara ekspor juga gak sebegitu bergairahnya.
>>
>>
>> dibawah 2600 bisa kasih kita proteksi downside, as simple as that. MOS.
>> kalo Bos Art bisa kasih dibawah 2600 kan berarti lebih nyaman buat Investor
>> pegang BUMI. Upsidenya nanti jadi bonus.
>>
>> On Wed, Sep 2, 2009 at 12:04 PM, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Ahhh....citi mau jualan kali. Biar ada yg nampung tuch!
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
>>> <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>[mailto:
>>> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>]
>>> On Behalf Of Bagus Putra Perdana
>>> Sent: Wednesday, September 02, 2009 12:03 PM
>>> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
>>> Subject: Re: Bls: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy:
>>> Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook
>>>
>>> DUMP lg sedikit Jendral., angka Citi terlalu fokus sama 2010-2011.
>>> Less cushion for the downside. Hit it. 2600 and lower. Baru enak liat
>>> FCF yieldnya. Ure the Man!
>>>
>>> On 9/2/09, artomoro9 <artomo...@yahoo.co.id <artomoro9%40yahoo.co.id>>
>>> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > ane tanya kang BAGUS dulu yee..
>>> >
>>> > regards,
>>> >
>>> > A9
>>> >
>>> > disclaimerontheway
>>> >
>>> > --- Pada Rab, 2/9/09, CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000)
>>> > <cumie...@gmail.com<cumienak%40gmail.com>>
>>> menulis:
>>> >
>>> > Dari: CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com<cumienak%40gmail.com>
>>> >
>>> > Judul: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged
>>> Play
>>> on
>>> > Better Thermal Coal Outlook
>>> > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
>>> > Tanggal: Rabu, 2 September, 2009, 11:20 AM
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Kali aja pingin ngelawan Jendral Art,
>>> > atau jendral Art mo beli di 2225, jual di 3800?
>>> >
>>> > =======
>>> > BUY, BUY, BUY! KEEP BUYING AND NEVER SELL!
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>>> > Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK)
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook
>>> >
>>> > Upgrade to Buy/High Risk; Raising target price to Rp3,800 — Robust
>>> > earnings
>>> >
>>> > growth outlook and high FCF yield lead us to upgrade our rating to
>>> > Buy/High
>>> >
>>> > Risk from Sell/Speculative.. The market is pricing in benchmark
>>> > coal price of c.
>>> >
>>> > US$76/ton; meaning upside risks to our US$80-90/ton forecasts for
>>> > 2010-11.
>>> >
>>> > Supportive coal price outlook — Citi’s commodities team
>>> > recently raised its
>>> >
>>> > thermal coal price forecasts for 2010-11 to US$80-90/ton from
>>> > US$70, citing
>>> >
>>> > structural improvement. Prospects of China becoming a sustained
>>> > net importer
>>> >
>>> > of coal provides upside risks to medium and long-term coal price
>>> > forecasts.
>>> >
>>> > Sanity check — Our IDR3,800 target price imputes an
>>> > EV/reserve of
>>> >
>>> > USD5.4/ton (6..8% of 2010E Japan benchmark price of US$80/ton).
>>> > This
>>> >
>>> > compares favorably with the implied EV/reserve from Tata’s
>>> > acquisition at
>>> >
>>> > US$4/ton (7.3% of 2007 benchmark price of US$55/ton). Our ‘floor
>>> > valuation’
>>> >
>>> > estimate is Rp2,700/share based on DCF and Tata’s implied
>>> > EV/reserve
>>> >
>>> > valuation.
>>> >
>>> > Convertible Bond – Double-Edged Sword — With
>>> > coupon rate of 9.25%, Bumi’s
>>> >
>>> > latest US$375m convertible bond is not cheap. Bumi’s capped call
>>> > option
>>> >
>>> > reduces the potential dilution risk while its equity swap position
>>> > (essentially a
>>> >
>>> > leveraged long position in Bumi’s stock) is an unequivocal signal
>>> > to us that
>>> >
>>> > management is bullish on Bumi’s medium and long-term outlook.
>>> >
>>> > Transfer of Coverage — We are transferring coverage of
>>> > BUMI.JK to Kim Kwie
>>> >
>>> > Sjamsudin from Margarett Go.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Akses email lebih cepat. Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade
>>> browser
>>> > ke Internet Explorer 8 baru yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan di
>>> sini!
>>> > http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer
>>>
>>> --
>>> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to
>>> the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In
>>> fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because
>>> we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things
>>> must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be
>>> corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is
>>> the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------
>>>
>>> + +
>>> + + + + +
>>> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
>>> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
>>> + + + + +
>>> + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the
>> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact,
>> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that
>> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only
>> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all
>> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”.
>> - Richard Feynman
>>
>
>
>
> --
> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the
> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact,
> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that
> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only
> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all
> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”.
> - Richard Feynman
>
>
>
>
--
Lukman
