RE: Bls: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook

[Ferry]

Ahhh....citi mau jualan kali. Biar ada yg nampung tuch!


-----Original Message-----
From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
On Behalf Of Bagus Putra Perdana
Sent: Wednesday, September 02, 2009 12:03 PM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: Bls: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy:
Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook

DUMP lg sedikit Jendral., angka Citi terlalu fokus sama 2010-2011.
Less cushion for the downside. Hit it. 2600 and lower. Baru enak liat
FCF yieldnya. Ure the Man!

On 9/2/09, artomoro9 <artomo...@yahoo.co.id> wrote:
>
> ane tanya kang BAGUS dulu yee..
>
> regards,
>
> A9
>
> disclaimerontheway
>
> --- Pada Rab, 2/9/09, CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com> menulis:
>
> Dari: CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com>
> Judul: [ob] BUMI (TP Rp3,800) - Citigroup: Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged Play
on
>  Better Thermal Coal Outlook
> Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Tanggal: Rabu, 2 September, 2009, 11:20 AM
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>                   Kali aja pingin ngelawan Jendral Art,
> atau jendral Art mo beli di 2225, jual di 3800?
>
> =======
> BUY, BUY, BUY! KEEP BUYING AND NEVER SELL!
>
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK)
>
>
> Upgrade to Buy: Leveraged Play on Better Thermal Coal Outlook
>
> Upgrade to Buy/High Risk; Raising target price to Rp3,800 — Robust
> earnings
>
> growth outlook and high FCF yield lead us to upgrade our rating to
> Buy/High
>
> Risk from Sell/Speculative.. The market is pricing in benchmark
> coal price of c.
>
> US$76/ton; meaning upside risks to our US$80-90/ton forecasts for
> 2010-11.
>
>  Supportive coal price outlook — Citi’s commodities team
> recently raised its
>
> thermal coal price forecasts for 2010-11 to US$80-90/ton from
> US$70, citing
>
> structural improvement. Prospects of China becoming a sustained
> net importer
>
> of coal provides upside risks to medium and long-term coal price
> forecasts.
>
>  Sanity check — Our IDR3,800 target price imputes an
> EV/reserve of
>
> USD5.4/ton (6..8% of 2010E Japan benchmark price of US$80/ton).
> This
>
> compares favorably with the implied EV/reserve from Tata’s
> acquisition at
>
> US$4/ton (7.3% of 2007 benchmark price of US$55/ton). Our ‘floor
> valuation’
>
> estimate is Rp2,700/share based on DCF and Tata’s implied
> EV/reserve
>
> valuation.
>
>  Convertible Bond – Double-Edged Sword — With
> coupon rate of 9.25%, Bumi’s
>
> latest US$375m convertible bond is not cheap. Bumi’s capped call
> option
>
> reduces the potential dilution risk while its equity swap position
> (essentially a
>
> leveraged long position in Bumi’s stock) is an unequivocal signal
> to us that
>
> management is bullish on Bumi’s medium and long-term outlook.
>
> Transfer of Coverage — We are transferring coverage of
> BUMI.JK to Kim Kwie
>
> Sjamsudin from Margarett Go.
>
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>       Akses email lebih cepat. Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade
browser
> ke Internet Explorer 8 baru yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan di
sini!
> http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer


-- 
Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to
the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In
fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because
we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things
must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be
corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is
the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman


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