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-----Original Message----- From: "Vic" <victor_speran...@yahoo.com> Date: Tue, 05 May 2009 10:04:11 To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Subject: [ob] Re: ELTY to Prof JT mungkin karena gak bagi dividen tahun ini. tapi justru bagus buat dipakai kebutuhan ekspansi. ini ada riset dari cc: Better months ahead The company's 1Q09 fared poorly from expectations. Even with the effect of cyclicality to a certain extent, 1Q09 top and bottom-lines only resulted in a 12.6% and 11.9% achievement rate of FY09F. Even with the company's turtlepace start in 09, we are inclined to maintain our previous forecasts given the followings: (a) enhanced revenue realization by virtue of 3 CBD project deliveries in subsequent quarters (b) acceptable take-up rates of landed housing units from Bogor Nirwana (c) Kanci Pejagan toll road contribution by 3Q09 and (d) generally better macro environment with mortgage rates seen to be more conducive to buyers. With these factors, we reduced our discretionary discount on NAV09F to 50% from 60% and arrived at a new TP of Rp250/share. At the current prices, the stock trades at 64.7% discount to our stripped-down FY09F NAV, while showing a 40.4% upside to our just revised TP. Maintain Buy. Subsquent quarters could be better. Although our concerns remain with the unexpectedly slow realization rate in1Q09, we will not redflag the upcoming months, considering (a) 3 project deliveries (Bakrie Office Tower, the Convergence and the Grove) with combined sales backlog of Rp871bn and (b) scheduled unit turnover of its landed residential properties in Bogor to the extent of Rp106bn. So far, no projects have fallen materially behind schedules, thus our Rp1.28tn realized revenues in FY09F remains unperturbed. Toll roads for steady cash flow. Given the slowdown in property revenues, ELTY's recurring sources remained steady with contribution of Rp46bn (+17.9%yoy) in 1Q09 equating to about 29% of total revenue. This will be given a further boost when the 34km-Kanci Pejagan toll road opens in 3Q09, where another Rp46bn of incremental revenues will come on stream. Once fully utilized, this toll section will provide some Rp180bn p.a. worth of revenue, in our view. Discount on NAV09F diminished, TP upgraded to Rp250/share. YTD share price has catapulted by 147%. Although, partially brought about by the recent rally of Bakrie-related stocks, we think that ELTY has the fundamental ingredients to sustain a price rally given its still attractive valuations and the potential benefit of lowered mortgage rates which could help boost housing demand. In this aspect, we are reducing our discretionary discount to 50% from 60% on the NAV09F to arrive at a revised TP of Rp250/share. Maintain Buy. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, ariono wijaya <arionowij...@...> wrote: > > Prof Mau tanya donk ? ELTY 10 menit terakhir kok pada guyur-guyuran ya ? apa > embernya bocor ya prof ? > > Dari Newbie >
