wow Elaine dan Embah bagi2 ilmu GRATIS heheh, thx namun kalau " BANDAR" nya saham KLBF tidak mau MENGANGKAT sahamnya hingga ke NILAI WAJAR apa teori fundamental ini berguna ?
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui <elainesu...@...> wrote: > > *Well, I guess he did. But I was actually telling about Dividend Discount > Model and Equity Risk Premium, which are slightly different from Gordon > Growth Model. (Personally I think GGM doesnt make sense, there is not such > thing as constant growth rate, and it doesn't really work on emerging > countries) > > If he was here, I'd love to discuss this with him. > > Anyway, Richard said he's a newbie, so I guess we have to explain a bit > about valuation in the simplest way possible. Maybe you (or anyone) can help > him from technical point of view (if there's any..) [?] > > > > Elaine** > * > On Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:07 AM, jsx_consultant < > jsx-consult...@...> wrote: > > > Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: > > > > Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) > > > > Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. > > > > Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui <elainesui83@> > > wrote: > > > > > > *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? > > First, you > > > must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should > > consider > > > comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free > > rate of > > > return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. > > > > > > Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. > > > (otherwise it's undervalued) > > > > > > Example: > > > Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around > > 100. That > > > makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of > > return > > > (RFRR) is only at 8% > > > > > > You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock > > price MAY > > > adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value > > would be > > > around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 > > (to > > > 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. > > > > > > Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That > > makes the > > > DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high > > compared to its > > > dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, > > usually soon > > > after the dividend is paid. > > > > > > Case 1: > > > BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced > > > > > <http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b > > umi-bagi-dividen-usd317- jt<http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016 /bumi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt> > > >dividend > > > was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would > > be 111/8% > > > = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. > > > > > > Case 2: > > > INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced > > > <http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves- an- > > interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per- share/<http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves- an-interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/> > > >that > > > it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. > > The RFRR > > > is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the > > dividend is > > > finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that > > time, so the > > > next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest > > dividend cmiiw > > > was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around > > 25xx. > > > > > > I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me > > less 'mysterious' lol > > > wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] > > j/k.. > > > > > > Elaine > > > * > > > 2009/1/4 Richard S <richardmux@> > > > > > > > Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan > > > > fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. > > > > Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda > > terlalu mahal > > > > untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? > > > > Thanks in advance, Richard. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > >
