Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth)
Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui <elainesu...@...> wrote: > > *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you > must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider > comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of > return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. > > Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. > (otherwise it's undervalued) > > Example: > Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That > makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return > (RFRR) is only at 8% > > You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY > adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be > around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to > 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. > > Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the > DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its > dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon > after the dividend is paid. > > Case 1: > BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced > <http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt>dividend > was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% > = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. > > Case 2: > INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced > <http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/>that > it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR > is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is > finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the > next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw > was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. > > I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol > wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. > > Elaine > * > 2009/1/4 Richard S <richard...@...> > > > Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan > > fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. > > Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal > > untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? > > Thanks in advance, Richard. > > > > > > >
