RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: China increased interest rates

Tue, 22 Aug 2006 02:42:22 -0700

Ini nehh terjemahannya buat Bung Aditya dan bung-bung lainnya...selamat membaca dan mempelajari...
 
 

Saham-saham Asia Akhiri Rally Akibat Kenaikan Sukubunga Cina dan Harga Minyak

 

Saham-saham Asia anjlok pada Senin (21/8) sekaligus mengakhiri rally (kenaikan-red) selama 5 hari pasca kenaikan tingkat sukubunga Cina serta peningkatan harga minyak global. Saham-saham Toyota Motor Corp. dan LG Electronics Inc. mengalami penurunan yang besar.

 

Indeks MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Asia-Pacific turun 0.6% menjadi 129,53 pada pukul 13:05  di Tokyo. Pekan lalu, indeks itu naik 3.3 %. Saham-saham perusahaan yang mengandalkan perdagangan global paling sangat tertekan setelah pemerintah Cina meningkatkan tingkat sukubunga pada 18 Agustus 2006 untuk meredam investasi.

 

“Sangat sulit untuk memprediksi saham-saham perusahaan yang sensitif terhadap ekonomi global,” kata Takeshi Yamaguchi, manajer investasi yang mengelola dana sebesar US$674 juta di Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. di Tokyo.

 

“Kenaikan sukubunga Cina saat ini menunjukkan bahwa bank sentral lebih agresif mengendalikan laju inflasi dan saya sedikit mencemaskan dampaknya terhadap eksportir,” katanya.

 

Saham-saham komoditas seperti BHP Billiton naik setelah harga minyak mentah mengalami kenaikan titik tertinggi dalam 3-pekan terakhir, sementara harga logam seperti tembaga dan seng menguat.

 

Indeks Nikkei 225 Jepang turun 0,8% menjadi 15.965,81. Saham-saham perusahaan eksportir juga terpuruk setelah sebuah laporan menunjukkan bahwa indeks harga konsumen (IHK) di AS tertekan. Pasalnya, AS adalah negara tujuan utama bagi ekspor Jepang.

 

Indeks Komposit Shanghai turun 0,6%, sementara indeks Hang Seng di Hong Kong terpuruk 1,5%. Indeks TAIEX di Taiwan merosot 2,8%, sekaligus menjadi indeks yang mengalami penurunan terbesar di Asia. Berbagai indeks saham di kawasan mengalami penurunan kecuali Australia. Sementara bursa-bursa saham di Filipina dan Indonesia masih tutup.

Harga saham Toyota, produsen otomotif terbesar kedua di dunia, turun 2% menjadi 6.360
yen per unit. Harga saham Sony Corp., produsen peralatan elektronik konsumen terbesar kedua di dunia, anjlok 1,1% menjadi 5.250 yen per unit.

 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., produsen mikrochip terbesar di dunia, terpuruk 2,4% menjadi NT$58,20 per unit.

 

 

Tingkat Sukubunga Cina

People’s Bank of China, bank sentral Cina, menaikkan tingkat sukubunga pinjaman berjangka satu tahun sebesar 27 basis poin menjadi 6,12%. Sementara, tingkat sukubunga deposito berjangka satu tahun naik 27 basis poin juga menjadi 2,52%.

 

Tujuh dari 22 ekonom yang disurvei Bloomberg News pada 16 Agustus 2006 memprediksi Cina akan terus menaikkan tingkat sukubunganya hingga 30 September 2006.


Kenaikan tingkat sukubunga Cina pada 27 April dan Oktober 2004 gagal memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina, yang mencapai 11,3% di kuartal kedua tahun itu. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina sebesar itu adalah yang tertinggi dalam kurun waktu lebih dari 10-tahun terakhir.

 

Kegagalan mengendalikan tingkat sukubunga pinjaman dan investasi akan mengakibatkan Cina mengalami peningkatan kredit macet, penurunan laba serta menjamurnya pembangunan pabrik-pabrik, demikian dilaporkan Bank Dunia.

 

“Langkah Cina untuk memperketat pertumbuhan ekonominya akan berdampak langsung terhadap berbagai perusahaan Asia yang menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina yang hiperaktif itu,” kata Simon Chao, manajer investasi yang mengelola dana sebesar US$ 1,4 miliar di President Investment Trust Corp. di Taipei.

 

“Para investor seharusnya mengurangi investasinya pada berbagai perusahaan yang berorientasi ekspor,” tuturnya.

 

 

‘Dampak Negatif’

 

Bank sentral Cina bersama mitranya yakni para bank sentral di Eropa, AS dan Asia menaikkan tingkat sukubunga pinjaman untuk menghentikan tekanan kenaikan harga. Korea Selatan dan Australia pada bulan ini juga menaikkan tingkat sukubunga mereka.

 

“Jika para bank sentral tersebut secara global mempertahankan tingkat sukubunganya, maka hal itu akan berdampak negatif terhadap bursa saham di seluruh Asia karena rata-rata perekonomian di Asia berorientasi ekspor,” kata Choi Chang Hoon, manajer investasi yang mengelola dana sekitar US$ 1,1 miliar di perusahaan investasi Korsel, Woori Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. di Seoul.

 

Sementara itu, harga saham Honda Motor Co., produsen sepedamotor terbesar ketiga di Jepang, turun 2,3% menjadi 3,870 yen per unit. Harga saham AU Optronics Corp., produsen layar kristal cair terbesar di Taiwan, terpuruk 3% menjadi NT$48,25 per unit. Harga saham Stats Chippac Ltd., perusahaan penyedia layanan pengujian dan pengepakan untuk mikrochips komputer terbesar di Asia Tenggara, turun 2,9% menjadi S$1,01 per unit.

‘Indikasinya’


Indeks sentimen pelaku pasar yang dirilis University of Michigan pada 18 Agustus 2006 mengalami penurunan lebih dalam ketimbang prediksinya menjadi 78,7 dari 84,7 pada Juli 2006. Para ekonom sebelumnya memprediksi penurunan indeks tersebut ke 83,8.

 

Penurunan itu mengindikasikan berkurangnya optimisme sehingga diperkirakan akan memperlamban sektor konsumsi para konsumen AS, yang menguasai sekitar 75% dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) AS.

 

“Berbagai bursa saham Asia masih memungut indikasi tersebut dari lingkungan eksternal, termasuk melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi AS,” kata Hans Goetti, Managing Director Citigroup Private Bank di Singapura, yang mengelola aset sekitar US$ 1,5 miliar di Asia.

 

Harga minyak di bursa komoditas di New York pada 18 Agustus 2006 naik 1,5% menjadi US$ 71,14 per barel. Kenaikan itu merupakan yang tertinggi sejak 31 Juli 2006 lalu. Belakangan ini, harga minyak ditransaksikan sekitar US$ 71,47 per barel.

 

Harga saham BHP Billiton, perusahaan pertambangan terbesar di dunia dan produsen minyak terbesar di Australia, naik 1,2% menjadi A$28,44 per unit. Harga saham Woodside Petroleum Ltd., produsen minyak terbesar kedua di Australia, meningkat 1,7% menjadi A$43,05 per unit. (abr)
 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]On Behalf Of Rony Santoso
Sent: Tuesday, August 22, 2006 3:06 PM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: China increased interest rates

hehehe... belajar bahasa inggris dong pak..
 
kasian amat yang ngasih info, dah capek2 ngasih eh disuruh translate lagi ;p
 
From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Aditya
Sent: Monday, August 21, 2006 15:08
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: China increased interest rates

Dear all,

Wah maaf nih pak, kalo saya boleh kasih saran sedikit tentang news,
mungkin akan labih baik jika ditranslate ke bahasa Indonesia.
Sehingga para pembaca lebih mudah dalam mamahami. Yah paling tidak
diberikan comments sedikit terhadap news yang sudah dirilis tersebut.

Hidup... Trader Indonesia.........

Regards,

Aditya
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsx_consultant" <jsx-
[EMAIL PROTECTED]..> wrote:
>
> Asian Stocks Snap Five-Day Rally on China Rate Rise, Oil Price
> Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, snapping a five- day
rally,
> after China increased interest rates and oil prices rose. Toyota
> Motor Corp. and LG Electronics Inc. led declines.
>
> The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index lost
0.6
> percent to 129.53 at 1:05 p.m. in Tokyo. The measure jumped 3.3
> percent last week. Companies that rely on overseas sales were the
> biggest drag after China's government on Aug. 18 raised borrowing
> costs to cool investment.
>
> ``It's difficult to bet on companies that are sensitive to the
global
> economy,'' said Takeshi Yamaguchi, who looks after $674 million at
> Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``China's rate
> increase this time showed the central bank is becoming more
> aggressive about controlling inflation and I worry a bit about its
> impact to exporters.''
>
> Commodities stocks such as BHP Billiton rose after crude- oil
prices
> had their biggest gain in three weeks, while metals such as copper
> and zinc advanced.
>
> Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 0.8 percent to 15,965.81.
> Exporters also slid after a report showed consumer confidence
dropped
> in the U.S., Japan's largest overseas market.
>
> The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A
shares
> and foreign-currency B shares, lost 0.6 percent, while the Hang
Seng
> Index in Hong Kong declined 1.5 percent. Taiwan's Taiex index
dropped
> 2.8 percent, Asia's biggest slide. Indexes fell around the region
> except in Australia. Markets were closed in the Philippines and
> Indonesia.
>
> Toyota, the world's second-largest automaker, slid 2 percent to
6,360
> yen. Sony Corp., the world's second-largest maker of consumer
> electronics, lost 1.1 percent to 5,250 yen. Taiwan Semiconductor
> Manufacturing Co., the world's largest maker of customized chips,
> slumped 2.4 percent to NT$58.20.
>
> China's Rates
>
> The People's Bank of China raised the one-year lending rate 27
basis
> points to 6.12 percent. The one-year deposit rate was increased by
> the same amount to 2.52 percent. Seven of 22 economists surveyed
by
> Bloomberg News on Aug. 16 forecast China would boost the lending
rate
> by Sept. 30.
>
> Rate increases on April 27 and October 2004 failed to slow China's
> economy, which expanded 11.3 percent in the second quarter, the
most
> in more than a decade. Failure to rein in lending and investment
> could leave China with too many factories, falling profits and
rising
> bad loans, the World Bank says.
>
> ``China's tightening measure will have a direct impact on Asian
> companies that feed on its hyperactive growth,'' said Simon Chao,
who
> helps manage $1.4 billion at President Investment Trust Corp. in
> Taipei. ``Investors should reduce investments in exporters.''
>
> `Negative Impact'
>
> The Chinese central bank joins its counterparts in Europe, the
U.S.
> and Asia in raising borrowing costs to curb rising price
pressures.
> South Korea and Australia this month also increased their
benchmark
> interest rates.
>
> ``If central banks globally keep raising interest rates, that will
> have a negative impact for equity markets across Asia'' because
they
> are export-oriented, said Choi Chang Hoon, who helps manage about
> $1.1 billion in South Korean equities at Woori Credit Suisse Asset
> Management Co. in Seoul.
>
> Honda Motor Co., Japan's third-largest automaker, slid 2.3 percent
to
> 3,870 yen. AU Optronics Corp., Taiwan's largest maker of liquid-
> crystal displays, dropped 3 percent to NT$48.25. Stats Chippac
Ltd.,
> Southeast Asia's largest provider of testing and packaging
services
> for computer chips, lost 2.9 percent to S$1.01.
>
> `Taking Their Cues'
>
> The University of Michigan's preliminary index of sentiment
released
> on Aug. 18 declined more than forecast, to 78.7 from 84.7 in July.
> Waning optimism threatens to slow U.S. consumer spending, which
> accounts for about three-fourths of gross domestic product.
> Economists forecast a drop to 83.8.
>
> ``Asian equity markets are still taking their cues from the
external
> environment, including the slowdown in the U.S. economy,'' said
Hans
> Goetti, a Singapore-based managing director at Citigroup Private
> Bank, which oversees about $1.5 billion of assets in Asia.
>
> Oil futures in New York on Aug. 18 climbed 1.5 percent to $71.14 a
> barrel. The gain was the most since July 31. Oil recently traded
at
> $71.47.
>
> BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company and Australia's
> largest oil producer, added 1.2 percent to A$28.44. Woodside
> Petroleum Ltd., Australia's No. 2 producer, rose 1.7 percent to
> A$43.05.
>
> An index of materials stocks on the MSCI Asia-Pacific index gained
> 0.2 percent, the biggest percentage advance of the 10 industry
> groups. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan's second- largest copper
> smelter and biggest gold producer, climbed 1.3 percent to 1,682
yen.
> Zinifex Ltd., the world's second-biggest zinc producer, jumped 2.7
> percent to A$10.86.
>
> An index of six metals including copper and zinc on the London
Metals
> Exchange rose 1.9 percent on Aug. 18, the fourth gain in five
days.
> Copper in New York climbed 2.5 percent.
>
> To contact the reporter on this story: Darren Boey in Hong Kong
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; Makiko Suzuki in Tokyo at
> [EMAIL PROTECTED].
>
> Last Updated: August 21, 2006 00:07 EDT
>

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