Lest we forget, a number of existing cases (parrots often, some of which we
find locally) in which strays turned into intermittent breeders, and now are
established, countable exotics. Shouldn't we be interested in how this
transition occurs (or fails to do so)?

In my Brooklyn XMas count database, we track a number of exotics, but flag
them as "non-countable."  In producing reports, we may differentiate
countable years from non-countable by years, if so desired. This is not a
difficult feat, as long as the data model is well-designed. Can eBirds do
this? Arguably it should. This would support a number of the data tracking
suggestions already put forward in this thread.

Just a thought,
Rick

-----Original Message-----
From: bounce-122144285-3714...@list.cornell.edu
[mailto:bounce-122144285-3714...@list.cornell.edu] On Behalf Of Shaibal
Mitra
Sent: Tuesday, December 19, 2017 3:02 PM
To: NYSBIRDS (NYSBIRDS-L@cornell.edu) <NYSBIRDS-L@cornell.edu>
Subject: RE: [nysbirds-l] Governors Island: European Goldfinch Flock
(18-Dec)

I agree strongly with John and Angus. The consequences for the eBird Hot 100
are at most not very important and at least potentially amusing. I thought
everybody knew they were supposed to keep track of their own lists, rather
than to trust in the algorithms of strangers!

More specifically, regarding European Goldfinches in the New York City area
now, the numbers of birds present and the area occupied are large enough to
suggest establishment. Perhaps not everybody is aware that this species
established breeding populations on western Long Island for decades. It is
even conceivable that these were never completely extirpated, and that
today's birds derive at least in part from those naturalized populations
(but they are certainly at least partly derived from recent escapes, as
proven by the presence of plastic leg bands on some). The best argument
against the hypothesis of demographic continuity between the period of
establishment and the current resurgence in reported abundance is that very
few or none were reported for several decades. But this is at best a weak
argument from negative data that are known to be systematically biased
against reporting. 

Monk Parakeets provide a parallel example that is very instructive. This
species established breeding populations in the New York City/Long Island
region that were fairly large and widespread by the early 1970s. These were
subjected to eradication programs during the mid-1970s, and perceptions
shifted to the extent that NYSARC acted (overly boldly in my opinion) to
remove the species from the official New York State Checklist in 1982.
Reports almost ceased during this period, but we know in this case that the
gap in documented occurrence was an error arising from two sources: because
backyard birders who liked the parakeets concealed their presence to protect
them from destruction; but also because the remaining birds were perceived
as "not countable" by competitive birders. 

Today's thread illustrates that under-reporting of "not countable" species
has persisted in birding culture, to the detriment of our ability to infer
the actual statuses of non-native species.

Shai Mitra
Bay Shore
________________________________________
From: bounce-122144147-11143...@list.cornell.edu
[bounce-122144147-11143...@list.cornell.edu] on behalf of John Laver
[eart...@gmail.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 19, 2017 2:20 PM
To: Angus Wilson
Cc: NYSBIRDS-L@cornell.edu
Subject: Re: [nysbirds-l] Governors Island: European Goldfinch Flock
(18-Dec)

"Personally, I think tracking these potential colonizers is important and
interesting. Simply invalidating them or discouraging reporting isn't a good
solution."

Agreed, particularly as range flux is likely to accelerate in ways we'll
need to observe and measure as climate changes take hold.  We need to think
about the Big Picture.

John Laver
Manhattan

On Tue, Dec 19, 2017 at 1:50 PM, Angus Wilson
<oceanwander...@gmail.com<mailto:oceanwander...@gmail.com>> wrote:
For European Goldfinch I suspect 'domesticated' isn't an option. Same for
other known or presumed escapes or deliberate releases that occur with
regularity in NYS (e.g. Chukar and various non-domesticated waterfowl).
Personally, I think tracking these potential colonizers is important and
interesting. Simply invalidating them or discouraging reporting isn't a good
solution. Issues with list purity can be a separate conversation, decoupled
from the scientific uses of this information.

Angus Wilson
New York City, NY
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